PythiaFootballBETA
Sporting CP is the clear favourite to win this match, with a predicted 77% chance of success. The model's high rating is largely due to the home team's impressive recent form, having gone unbeaten in their last 5 matches, and their strong performance at home, where they average 3.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
At home, Sporting CP is expected to win 77% of the time, draw 15%, and lose 7% of the time. The most likely score is 2-0, with a probability of 12.1%. The expected total number of goals is 3.3, with the most likely total being 3.
Sporting CP's home scoring and conceding statistics are impressive, with an average of 3.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. In contrast, GIL Vicente struggles when playing away from home, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 1.25 conceded against stronger opponents.
The model selects Over 1.5 goals with an 85.4% probability, Over 21.5 fouls with an 83.8% probability, and Home win with a 77.3% probability and a 2% edge. The other suggested picks include Over 3.5 cards with a 71.1% probability.
Sporting CP's win extends their unbeaten run in their last 5 matches, following a 3-2 victory over Guimaraes. The final score was 3-0, with Sporting CP securing a convincing home win. The model correctly predicted this outcome, selecting Home win with a pre-match probability of 77%. The model's call was correct, as Sporting CP dominated the match from start to finish.
The model's selection of Home win also came with a suggested pick of Over 1.5, which hit with a probability of 85.4%. Another suggested pick, Over 21.5 fouls, also came in, with a probability of 83.8%. However, the selection of Over 3.5 cards missed, despite having a probability of 71.1%.
Sporting CP| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.43 | 0.93 | 3.00 | 0.67 | 1.87 | 1.20 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 0.86 | 1.29 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| vs Weaker (23) | 2.91 | 0.83 | 3.50 | 0.50 | 2.27 | 1.18 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
GIL Vicente| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 1.10 | 1.75 | 0.94 | 1.21 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.75 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 0.50 | 1.25 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.74 | 1.11 | 1.90 | 0.90 | 1.56 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.00 | 0.67 | 2.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+4pp vs league) | |||||
| GIL Vicente goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 8.6% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 12% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 11% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 7.0% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Sporting CPGIL VicenteSporting CP| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 9.4 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 25.7 | 24.8 | 26.7 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 8.5 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 24.8 | 21.5 | 26.7 |
| vs Weaker (39) | 10.1 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 26.0 | 25.4 | 26.7 |
| % over line | 48% | 48% | 48% | 64% | 52% | 76% | 78% | 68% | 88% |
| % under line | 52% | 52% | 52% | 36% | 48% | 24% | 22% | 32% | 12% |
GIL Vicente| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.2 | 8.3 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 28.0 | 28.6 | 27.4 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 9.9 | 9.5 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 27.1 | 27.9 | 26.2 |
| vs Similar (28) | 8.9 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 28.4 | 29.6 | 27.0 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 8.8 | 7.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 28.1 | 25.3 | 29.8 |
| % over line | 44% | 38% | 50% | 68% | 65% | 71% | 86% | 100% | 71% |
| % under line | 56% | 62% | 50% | 32% | 35% | 29% | 14% | 0% | 29% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 85.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 83.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home win | 77.3% | 1.23 | - | - | - | - | - | +2.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 71.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/05/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 22/12/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 12/04/24 | A | 0-4 | |
| 04/12/23 | H | 3-1 | |
| 05/04/23 | A | 0-0 | |
| 30/09/22 | H | 3-1 | |
| 01/05/22 | H | 4-1 |
Sporting CP| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 29/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 15/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 07/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-4 |
GIL Vicente| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 27/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 13/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 02/03/26 | H | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  FC Porto | 34 | 88 | 82% | 2.6 | 66 | 18 | +48 | 2.5 | 71% | 56% | 24% | 8.6 | 35% | 5.5 | 82% | 26.4 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 55% |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 34 | 82 | 74% | 2.4 | 89 | 24 | +65 | 3.3 | 91% | 71% | 35% | 9.9 | 53% | 5.2 | 62% | 25.9 | 79% | 460 | 190 | 72 | 198 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 62% |
| 3 |  Benfica | 34 | 80 | 68% | 2.4 | 74 | 25 | +49 | 2.9 | 88% | 71% | 32% | 10.0 | 56% | 5.3 | 73% | 26.8 | 74% | 288 | 105 | 93 | 90 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 58% |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 34 | 59 | 47% | 1.7 | 64 | 36 | +28 | 2.9 | 76% | 68% | 38% | 8.4 | 32% | 5.0 | 79% | 23.5 | 62% | 215 | 100 | 46 | 69 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 63% |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 34 | 56 | 44% | 1.6 | 42 | 29 | +13 | 2.1 | 53% | 38% | 24% | 10.4 | 56% | 5.1 | 68% | 32.1 | 94% | 109 | 51 | 17 | 41 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 51% |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 34 | 50 | 38% | 1.5 | 47 | 38 | +9 | 2.5 | 76% | 53% | 26% | 9.5 | 50% | 5.1 | 67% | 28.2 | 85% | 61 | 37 | 5 | 19 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 50% |
| 7 |  Moreirense | 34 | 43 | 35% | 1.3 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 2.5 | 74% | 50% | 21% | 8.4 | 35% | 4.9 | 68% | 29.2 | 94% | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 8 |  Guimaraes | 34 | 42 | 35% | 1.2 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 2.6 | 76% | 44% | 24% | 8.4 | 38% | 5.2 | 74% | 29.6 | 88% | 73 | 34 | 26 | 13 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 51% |
| 9 |  Arouca | 34 | 42 | 35% | 1.2 | 47 | 64 | -17 | 3.3 | 79% | 68% | 50% | 9.0 | 44% | 5.7 | 79% | 25.9 | 79% | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 50% |
| 10 |  Estoril | 34 | 39 | 29% | 1.1 | 54 | 57 | -3 | 3.3 | 76% | 62% | 53% | 9.3 | 41% | 4.9 | 88% | 25.8 | 82% | 57 | 25 | 10 | 22 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 53% |
| 11 |  Alverca | 34 | 39 | 29% | 1.1 | 35 | 52 | -17 | 2.6 | 76% | 50% | 24% | 8.9 | 44% | 4.9 | 64% | 26.4 | 71% | 52 | 18 | 13 | 22 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 45% |
| 12 |  Santa Clara | 34 | 36 | 26% | 1.1 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 2.1 | 56% | 35% | 15% | 9.0 | 50% | 6.1 | 85% | 29.5 | 94% | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 13 |  Rio Ave | 34 | 36 | 24% | 1.1 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 2.7 | 82% | 59% | 29% | 10.8 | 68% | 5.2 | 62% | 27.4 | 79% | 53 | 21 | 5 | 26 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 47% |
| 14 |  Nacional | 34 | 34 | 26% | 1.0 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 2.4 | 74% | 41% | 18% | 10.8 | 68% | 5.7 | 74% | 27.2 | 88% | 27 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 15 |  Casa Pia | 36 | 34 | 19% | 0.9 | 33 | 57 | -24 | 2.5 | 75% | 42% | 28% | 10.0 | 50% | 5.6 | 83% | 29.8 | 92% | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 41% |
| 16 |  Estrela | 34 | 30 | 18% | 0.9 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 2.8 | 74% | 53% | 38% | 9.1 | 35% | 5.6 | 82% | 29.7 | 97% | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 47% |
| 17 |  Tondela | 34 | 28 | 18% | 0.8 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 2.4 | 68% | 50% | 29% | 9.8 | 50% | 5.4 | 71% | 26.8 | 82% | 25 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 44% |
| 18 |  AVS | 34 | 21 | 9% | 0.6 | 27 | 67 | -40 | 2.8 | 79% | 59% | 38% | 9.5 | 47% | 5.0 | 67% | 24.7 | 71% | 19 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 39% |
| 19 |  Torreense | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1.0 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 11.5 | 50% | 6.5 | 100% | 25.5 | 100% | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 60% |