Sporting CP’s dominance at home is clear, with an 85% chance of winning and a 3-0 scoreline the most likely result at 12.2%. The model favours a decisive home win, reflecting Sporting’s 2.67 average goals scored and only one conceded at home against weaker opposition, while Nacional struggles away, scoring just 0.57 and conceding 1.86 against stronger teams. The expected total of 3.7 goals aligns with a 3-0 outcome, and the predicted total goals of 3 carries a 21% probability. The match-result probabilities are 85% for a home win, 11% for a draw, and 4% for an away win. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (99.7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.6%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (99.0%), Home +2 handicap (98.8%), Under 7.5 (97.7% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 goals (97.7% with a 4% edge), Away under 1.5 HT goals (95.7% with a 5% edge), and Home or Draw (95.1% with a 3% edge). Sporting’s recent 3-game winning streak, highlighted by a 4-0 victory over Rio Ave, further underpins the model’s confidence.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sporting CP win
84.1%
Avg Implied 78.1% · @ 1.20
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.24
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Draw
11.5%
Avg Implied 14.3% · @ 6.56
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
7.67
Dafabet
7.20
Unibet
7.00
Superbet
7.00
1xBet
6.76
Nacional win
4.4%
Avg Implied 7.6% · @ 12.26
Edge
-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
15.00
Unibet
14.00
10Bet
13.50
Dafabet
13.00
Bet365
13.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sporting CP
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.00
2.25
1.00
1.93
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.71
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (23)
2.52
1.09
2.67
1.00
2.36
1.18
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.40
1.47
1.07
0.87
1.73
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
1.46
0.83
1.00
0.57
1.86
vs Similar (17)
1.53
1.35
1.89
1.11
1.12
1.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.1%
@ 1.11+4.1%
Under 1.5
11.9%
@ 5.83-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
Under
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Superbet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
70.1%
@ 1.40+3.7%
Under 2.5
29.9%
@ 2.76-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
Under
Betfair
3.10
Superbet
2.87
Betano
2.82
10Bet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.73
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
48.9%
@ 2.01+2.2%
Under 3.5
51.1%
@ 1.76-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.10
Betano
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.04
Unibet
2.02
Under
Betfair
1.87
SBO
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.77
Both teams to score
Yes
44.4%
@ 1.90-4.6%
No
55.6%
@ 1.82+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
2.02
Bet365
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Betano
1.91
BetVictor
1.90
No
Betfair
2.00
William Hil
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
12.1%@ 7.39+6.0%
2-0
12.1%@ 6.79+5.4%
4-0
9.1%@ 10.21+4.6%
1-0
7.6%@ 8.72+2.4%
3-1
7.5%@ 9.61+2.8%
2-1
7.5%@ 8.75+2.3%
4-1
5.6%@ 13.17+2.2%
1-1
5.5%@ 11.77+1.7%
Sporting CP goals ↓
Nacional goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.2%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
1
7.6%
5.5%
1.6%
0.3%
0.0%
2
12%
7.5%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
3
12%
7.5%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
4
9.1%
5.6%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sporting CP goals (down), columns = Nacional goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Arouca
1.24
Guimaraes
1.24
Estoril
1.15
Alverca
1.15
Maritimo
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.10
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
Sporting CP is 1.41 points better than Nacional in terms of average points per game (2.41 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
Arouca
1.38
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Maritimo
1.08
Academico Viseu
1.06
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
Sporting CP is 1.53 goals better than Nacional in terms of goals scored per game (2.62 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Maritimo
1.55
Academico Viseu
1.58
Casa Pia
1.58
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
Sporting CP is 0.62 goals better than Nacional in terms of goals conceded per game (0.71 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
Sporting CP is 15.7 percentage points better than Nacional in terms of average possession (62% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sporting CP
For 6.0 · Against 2.8 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 12.6 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nacional
For 4.6 · Against 6.2 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 13.6 · Total 27.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sporting CP
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.8
9.8
4.8
4.1
5.5
26.1
25.7
26.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
8.7
9.4
8.1
4.1
3.4
4.6
24.9
24.0
25.6
vs Weaker (38)
10.1
9.9
10.4
5.1
4.3
5.9
26.5
26.2
26.8
% over line
48%
46%
50%
58%
48%
68%
75%
67%
83%
% under line
52%
54%
50%
42%
52%
32%
25%
33%
17%
This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.9
9.5
5.2
5.9
4.5
26.9
26.2
27.5
vs Stronger (19)
10.3
11.6
9.3
4.7
5.8
4.0
26.6
27.2
26.1
vs Similar (30)
10.2
10.6
9.7
5.6
6.0
5.1
27.0
25.8
28.4
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
56%
58%
54%
66%
79%
54%
88%
88%
88%
% under line
44%
42%
46%
34%
21%
46%
12%
12%
12%
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Famalicao
10.5
Rio Ave
10.4
Nacional
10.2
Benfica
10.1
Sporting CP
9.8
Casa Pia
9.6
Academico Viseu
9.5
GIL Vicente
9.1
Estoril
9.0
Santa Clara
9.0
Estrela
9.0
Alverca
8.9
FC Porto
8.9
Arouca
8.9
Guimaraes
8.5
Maritimo
8.1
SC Braga
8.1
Moreirense
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
5.9
Maritimo
5.8
Academico Viseu
5.8
Casa Pia
5.6
Arouca
5.6
Estrela
5.5
Famalicao
5.4
Nacional
5.4
Guimaraes
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
FC Porto
5.2
Sporting CP
5.1
Benfica
5.0
Rio Ave
5.0
GIL Vicente
4.9
SC Braga
4.9
Alverca
4.8
Estoril
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
32.0
Santa Clara
30.1
Estrela
29.9
Moreirense
29.5
Casa Pia
29.2
Guimaraes
28.9
GIL Vicente
27.9
Rio Ave
27.0
Nacional
26.9
Estoril
26.7
Sporting CP
26.2
FC Porto
26.1
Arouca
26.0
Benfica
25.8
Academico Viseu
25.3
SC Braga
24.7
Maritimo
24.6
Alverca
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.2%
@ 1.70-7.0%
Under 9.5
52.8%
@ 2.01+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Under
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
66.2%
@ 1.38+0.8%
Under 3.5
33.8%
@ 2.60-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.38
Under
Superbet
2.60
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
83.5%
Under 21.5
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sporting CP or Draw
95.1%
Avg Implied 91.2% · @ 1.04
Edge
+4.0%
84%
12%
4%
covers Sporting CP + Draw
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.06
Betano
1.05
William Hil
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Sporting CP or Nacional
87.1%
Avg Implied 86.4% · @ 1.09
Edge
+0.7%
84%
12%
4%
covers Sporting CP + Nacional
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Draw or Nacional
17.8%
Avg Implied 22.5% · @ 4.20
Edge
-4.7%
84%
12%
4%
covers Draw + Nacional
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.35
Betano
4.35
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.30
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sporting CP over/under 0.5
Over
93.9%
@ 1.03+2.6%
Under
6.1%
@ 10.85-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Under
Bet365
13.00
1xBet
12.00
Betfair
11.00
Superbet
10.00
Betano
8.25
Sporting CP over/under 1.5
Over
76.9%
@ 1.25+2.5%
Under
23.1%
@ 3.63-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
10Bet
3.65
Sporting CP over/under 2.5
Over
53.1%
@ 1.79+1.3%
Under
46.9%
@ 1.93-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.85
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Betfair
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Under
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.95
Superbet
1.95
10Bet
1.93
BetVictor
1.93
Sporting CP over/under 3.5
Over
30.8%
@ 3.00-0.1%
Under
69.2%
@ 1.34+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.03
Superbet
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Betano
3.00
Under
Superbet
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Nacional over/under 0.5
Over
45.1%
@ 1.80-6.3%
Under
54.9%
@ 1.91+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.93
Superbet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Under
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.93
BetVictor
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Nacional over/under 1.5
Over
12.2%
@ 5.07-6.3%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.15+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.25
Marathonbet
5.20
Superbet
5.15
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Nacional over/under 2.5
Over
2.3%
@ 16.25-3.6%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Nacional over/under 3.5
Over
0.3%
@ 55.50-99.7%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
60.00
Bet365
51.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sporting CP, so a minus line means Sporting CP give that many goals of a start and Nacional receive them. At -1, Sporting CP must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sporting CP win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sporting CP)
Sporting CP -2
40.9%
@ 2.41+3.7%
Draw -2
22.1%
@ 3.94-0.6%
Nacional +2
36.9%
@ 2.24-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
10Bet
2.45
Superbet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.36
Draw
Marathonbet
4.25
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Away
Unibet
2.38
Bet365
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Superbet
2.25
10Bet
2.20
Handicap -1 (Sporting CP)
Sporting CP -1
63.1%
@ 1.56+5.5%
Draw -1
19.2%
@ 4.15-2.5%
Nacional +1
17.8%
@ 4.31-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.59
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Superbet
4.15
Unibet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Away
Unibet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.20
Superbet
4.20
Handicap +1 (Sporting CP)
Sporting CP +1
95.1%
@ 1.03+3.9%
Draw +1
3.7%
@ 15.50-2.4%
Nacional -1
1.2%
@ 35.00-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
14.00
Away
Betfair
36.00
Bet365
34.00
Handicap +2 (Sporting CP)
Sporting CP +2
98.8%
Draw +2
1.0%
Nacional -2
0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sporting CP
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.30
1.00
0.19
0.79
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.00
0.14
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.17
0.35
1.33
0.17
1.00
0.55
Clean sheet %
77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.40
0.47
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (13)
0.00
0.62
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.86
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.71
0.67
0.56
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.8%
@ 1.22+3.1%
Under 0.5
20.2%
@ 4.00-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.80
Superbet
4.30
Bet365
4.00
William Hil
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.5%
@ 2.02+2.4%
Under 1.5
51.5%
@ 1.73-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.18
1xBet
2.11
Marathonbet
2.11
SBO
2.04
Superbet
2.00
Under
SBO
1.78
Superbet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Betfair
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.1%
@ 4.25-1.8%
Under 2.5
79.9%
@ 1.19+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.40
Betano
4.40
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Under
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sporting CP over/under 0.5 HT
Over
73.3%
@ 1.35+4.2%
Under
26.7%
@ 3.02-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Under
10Bet
3.20
Superbet
3.10
1xBet
2.90
Betano
2.87
Sporting CP over/under 1.5 HT
Over
34.5%
@ 2.57-1.5%
Under
65.5%
@ 1.44+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.76
Betano
2.70
1xBet
2.60
10Bet
2.55
Superbet
2.50
Under
Unibet
1.47
Superbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
10Bet
1.45
1xBet
1.43
Sporting CP over/under 2.5 HT
Over
9.8%
@ 5.96-5.7%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.10+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.40
Betano
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.70
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Nacional over/under 0.5 HT
Over
25.6%
@ 3.24-2.9%
Under
74.4%
@ 1.29+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.51
Unibet
3.40
Betano
3.30
Marathonbet
3.24
Superbet
3.20
Under
1xBet
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Nacional over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.4%
@ 12.25-3.3%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.02+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Nacional over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.4%
@ 65.00-99.6%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
65.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sporting CP
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.70
1.25
0.81
1.14
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.57
1.00
0.75
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (23)
1.35
0.74
1.33
0.83
1.36
0.64
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
1.07
0.60
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.85
0.83
0.67
0.57
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.65
1.22
0.56
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
86.2%
@ 1.12+2.7%
Under 0.5
13.8%
@ 5.66-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Under
1xBet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.80
Betano
5.60
10Bet
5.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
57.9%
@ 1.62+0.6%
Under 1.5
42.1%
@ 2.18-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Superbet
1.64
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.62
Under
Betano
2.27
Superbet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.21
10Bet
2.20
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.4%
@ 2.90-5.7%
Under 2.5
73.6%
@ 1.37+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.10
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.95
10Bet
2.85
1xBet
2.81
Under
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sporting CP over/under 0.5 2H
Over
79.4%
@ 1.22+3.1%
Under
20.6%
@ 3.92-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Under
Betano
3.95
1xBet
3.90
Superbet
3.90
Sporting CP over/under 1.5 2H
Over
44.3%
@ 2.01-1.9%
Under
55.7%
@ 1.72+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.03
Superbet
2.02
Betano
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
Under
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
Superbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Sporting CP over/under 2.5 2H
Over
18.5%
@ 4.12-3.9%
Under
81.5%
@ 1.19+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.20
10Bet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Betano
3.90
Under
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Nacional over/under 0.5 2H
Over
31.6%
@ 2.58-4.4%
Under
68.4%
@ 1.45+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.64
Superbet
2.62
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.47
Under
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.41
Nacional over/under 1.5 2H
Over
5.8%
@ 9.54-4.0%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.03+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
Superbet
10.00
1xBet
9.40
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
Nacional over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.0%
@ 45.00-99.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.1%
Away under 2.5 goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.6%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.3%
Home or Draw
95.1%
1.04
BetVictor
1.06
Betano
1.05
William Hil
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
+4.0%
Home +1 handicap
95.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+3.9%
Under 6.5
94.2%
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.04
+2.7%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
94.2%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
-
+4.0%
Home over 0.5 goals
93.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
+2.6%
Over 19.5 fouls
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
90.2%
1.10
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.07
-
+5.7%
Over 1.5
88.1%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
+4.1%
Away under 1.5 goals
87.8%
1.15
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
+6.3%
Home or Away
87.1%
1.09
1xBet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
+0.7%
Under 5.5
87.1%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
+2.8%
Over 0.5 2H goals
86.2%
1.12
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
+2.7%
Home win
84.1%
1.20
1xBet
1.24
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
+6.0%
Over 21.5 fouls
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
81.5%
1.19
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
-
+3.9%
Under 2.5 HT goals
79.9%
1.19
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+1.8%
Over 0.5 HT goals
79.8%
1.22
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+3.1%
Home over 0.5 2H goals
79.4%
1.22
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
-
-
+3.1%
Home over 1.5 goals
76.9%
1.25
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
+2.5%
Under 11.5 corners
75.7%
1.39
Superbet
1.43
Unibet
1.43
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.34
+9.5%
Under 4.5
74.4%
1.30
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
BetVictor
1.29
+2.9%
Away under 0.5 HT goals
74.4%
1.29
1xBet
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
+2.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.6%
1.37
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
+5.7%
Home over 0.5 HT goals
73.3%
1.35
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
-
+4.2%
Over 23.5 fouls
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
70.1%
1.40
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
+3.7%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sporting CP
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fotis Ioannidis67%
Flávio Gonçalves50%
Maximiliano Araújo33%
Luis Javier Suárez25%
Rodrigo Zalazar25%
Geny Catamo25%
Sergi Altimira25%
Rui Silva0%
Gonçalo Inácio0%
Issa Doumbia0%
Iván Fresneda0%
Luís Guilherme0%
Jesse Derry0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luis Javier Suárez50%
Geny Catamo50%
Gonçalo Inácio33%
Jesse Derry33%
Sergi Altimira25%
Fotis Ioannidis0%
Rui Silva0%
Maximiliano Araújo0%
Rodrigo Zalazar0%
Issa Doumbia0%
Iván Fresneda0%
Luís Guilherme0%
Flávio Gonçalves0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Geny Catamo50%
Fotis Ioannidis33%
Maximiliano Araújo33%
Rodrigo Zalazar25%
Issa Doumbia25%
Flávio Gonçalves25%
Rui Silva0%
Luis Javier Suárez0%
Gonçalo Inácio0%
Sergi Altimira0%
Iván Fresneda0%
Luís Guilherme0%
Jesse Derry0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fotis Ioannidis33%
Flávio Gonçalves25%
Rui Silva0%
Luis Javier Suárez0%
Maximiliano Araújo0%
Rodrigo Zalazar0%
Geny Catamo0%
Gonçalo Inácio0%
Sergi Altimira0%
Issa Doumbia0%
Iván Fresneda0%
Luís Guilherme0%
Jesse Derry0%
Nacional
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Liziero25%
Léo Santos25%
Wesley Gasolina25%
Miguel Baeza25%
Ze Vitor25%
Pablo Messias Cardozo25%
Filipe Soares0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Matheus Dias0%
Daniel Júnior0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Filipe Soares50%
Wesley Gasolina25%
Matheus Dias25%
Ze Vitor25%
Daniel Júnior25%
Liziero0%
Léo Santos0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Liziero25%
Léo Santos25%
Daniel Júnior25%
Filipe Soares0%
Wesley Gasolina0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Matheus Dias0%
Ze Vitor0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Léo Santos25%
Liziero0%
Filipe Soares0%
Wesley Gasolina0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Matheus Dias0%
Ze Vitor0%
Daniel Júnior0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
Sporting CP's squad is €394m more valuable than Nacional's (€414m vs €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
Sporting CP's attack is €140m more valuable than Nacional's (€146m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
Sporting CP's midfield is €86m more valuable than Nacional's (€91m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
Sporting CP's defence is €167m more valuable than Nacional's (€176m vs €9m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Arouca
Santa Clara
Benfica
GIL Vicente
Maritimo
Estrela
SC Braga
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Academico Viseu
Alverca
Estoril
Casa Pia