This match between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg is finely balanced, with the home team coming off a draw against FC St. Pauli and the away team unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including a 3-0 win over Dynamo Dresden. The model's selection is a home win, but the probabilities are close, with a 38% chance of a home win, 27% chance of a draw, and 34% chance of an away win.
The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.9%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth has a strong home form, scoring 1.5 goals on average and conceding 0.5 goals, while 1. FC Nürnberg has a weaker away form, scoring 1 goal on average and conceding 1.4 goals.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals, with a 79% probability and a 1% edge, Over 3.5 cards, with a 72.2% probability, and Over 21.5 fouls, with a 71.2% probability. The home win percentage is 38%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 34%.
In a stunning upset, 1. FC Nürnberg secured a 2-4 away win over SpVgg Greuther Fürth, extending their 2-game winning run. This result comes as a surprise, as SpVgg Greuther Fürth were the pre-match favourite, with a 38% chance of winning. However, the model's selection, Home win, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as the actual result was an away win. Meanwhile, the model's selection of Home win was not the only incorrect call, as the suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 80.8% probability, and the most likely scores of 1-1, 2-1, and 1-2 all missed their mark.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 1.80 | 1.67 | 1.60 | 0.93 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 1.30 | 1.80 | 1.67 | 1.60 | 0.93 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
1. FC Nürnberg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 1.30 | 1.88 | 1.00 | 1.29 | 1.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.62 | 1.42 | 2.00 | 1.08 | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.50 | 0.83 | 1.50 | 0.75 | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
| 1. FC Nürnberg goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 6.6% | 12% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| 2 | 5.8% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1. FC Nürnberg
SpVgg Greuther Fürth| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.1 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 23.9 | 24.0 | 23.8 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 10.5 | 10.5 | - | 6.0 | 6.0 | - | 29.5 | 29.5 | - |
| vs Similar (47) | 10.1 | 9.9 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 23.6 | 23.3 | 23.8 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 11.0 | 11.0 | - | 4.0 | 4.0 | - | 28.0 | 28.0 | - |
| % over line | 52% | 56% | 48% | 72% | 72% | 72% | 68% | 64% | 72% |
| % under line | 48% | 44% | 52% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 32% | 36% | 28% |
1. FC Nürnberg| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.9 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 24.9 | 23.8 | 26.1 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (38) | 9.6 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 24.4 | 24.4 | 24.3 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 26.5 | 21.5 | 31.5 |
| % over line | 48% | 54% | 42% | 80% | 85% | 75% | 72% | 73% | 71% |
| % under line | 52% | 46% | 58% | 20% | 15% | 25% | 28% | 27% | 29% |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.77 | 0.93 | 1.07 | 0.20 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 0.57 | 0.77 | 0.93 | 1.07 | 0.20 | 0.47 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
1. FC Nürnberg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.50 | 0.81 | 0.31 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.79 | 0.58 | 0.92 | 0.42 | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 0.67 | 0.17 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
SpVgg Greuther Fürth| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 1.03 | 0.73 | 0.53 | 0.73 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 0.73 | 1.03 | 0.73 | 0.53 | 0.73 | 1.53 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
1. FC Nürnberg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.80 | 1.06 | 0.69 | 0.57 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.83 | 0.83 | 1.08 | 0.67 | 0.58 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 0.83 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 84.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 82.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 80.8% | 1.20 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.20 | +2.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 74.2% | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.33 | - | +7.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 07/12/25 | A | 2-2 | |
| 16/03/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 20/10/24 | H | 0-4 | |
| 25/02/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 15/09/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/02/23 | H | 1-0 | |
| 23/07/22 | A | 2-0 |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 26/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 22/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 0-2 |
1. FC Nürnberg| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 3-3 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 2-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 9.7 | 67% | 3.0 | 33% | 20.3 | 33% | 40 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 2 | Hertha BSC | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 4.7 | 67% | 67% | 67% | 10.7 | 33% | 5.7 | 100% | 28.0 | 100% | 25 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 49% |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 2.7 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 14.3 | 100% | 1.7 | 0% | 24.0 | 67% | 154 | 56 | 32 | 66 | 2.0 | 0.7 | - |
| 4 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 6.7 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 11.0 | 67% | 4.3 | 67% | 18.3 | 33% | 33 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 3.3 | 3.3 | - |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 4.0 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 9.7 | 67% | 5.7 | 67% | 25.3 | 67% | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 54% |
| 6 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 3 | 5 | 33% | 1.7 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 1.0 | 33% | 33% | 0% | 11.7 | 67% | 4.7 | 67% | 26.7 | 100% | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 48% |
| 7 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5.0 | 100% | 67% | 67% | 11.7 | 67% | 3.3 | 67% | 20.0 | 67% | 19 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 48% |
| 8 | Karlsruher SC | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3.3 | 67% | 67% | 33% | 15.0 | 100% | 3.3 | 33% | 28.3 | 100% | 31 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 48% |
| 9 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 5.3 | 67% | 67% | 67% | 12.7 | 100% | 5.7 | 100% | 23.0 | 67% | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 44% |
| 10 | Arminia Bielefeld | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | 13.3 | 100% | 3.0 | 33% | 25.7 | 67% | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 52% |
| 11 | VfL Bochum | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.3 | 33% | 6.3 | 100% | 27.3 | 100% | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 46% |
| 12 | Energie Cottbus | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 13.7 | 67% | 3.3 | 67% | 26.3 | 100% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2.0 | 2.7 | - |
| 13 | Hannover 96 | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2.0 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 11.7 | 67% | 3.0 | 33% | 20.0 | 33% | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 56% |
| 14 | VfL Osnabrück | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3.7 | 67% | 67% | 33% | 10.0 | 67% | 4.0 | 33% | 21.0 | 67% | 10 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | - |
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 33% | 12.3 | 100% | 4.3 | 67% | 18.3 | 33% | 19 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 50% |
| 16 | FC St. Pauli | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3.0 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 10.0 | 67% | 4.7 | 67% | 21.3 | 67% | 46 | 10 | 15 | 21 | 1.3 | 1.7 | - |
| 17 | Holstein Kiel | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 67% | 9.3 | 67% | 6.7 | 100% | 31.7 | 100% | 34 | 12 | 7 | 16 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 52% |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2.0 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 12.3 | 100% | 4.7 | 100% | 25.0 | 67% | 24 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 51% |