St Joseph S Fc enter the match on a winning streak, having just secured a 2-1 victory over Mons Calpe, while Europa Point comes off a 2-2 draw with Lynx. The model therefore names a home win as the clear favourite, assigning an 82% probability to St Joseph’s triumph. Their home form is strong, averaging 3.27 goals scored and only 0.82 conceded against weaker opposition, whereas Europa Point’s away record is weak, conceding 3.7 goals and scoring only 0.9 against stronger teams. This disparity explains the high home win odds and the model’s pick of a 3-0 scoreline, which carries an 8.1% chance.
The expected total is 4.4 goals, with the most likely total being 6 + at 28%. The suggested selections mirror this trend: Away under 3.5 goals (98.1%), Home +2 handicap (97.8%), Home over 0.5 goals (96.8%), Over 1.5 (94.0%), Home or Draw (93.5%), Home +1 handicap (93.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.0%), and Under 7.5 (91.9%). Each selection is listed with its precise probability. The match probabilities remain 82% for a home win, 11% for a draw, and 6% for an away win.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
St Joseph S Fc win
78.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
12.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Europa Point win
8.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
St Joseph S Fc
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.27
0.73
3.27
1.00
3.27
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
2.30
0.80
3.25
1.50
1.67
0.33
vs Weaker (20)
3.75
0.70
3.27
0.82
4.33
0.56
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa Point) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Europa Point
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
2.97
1.00
2.73
1.60
3.20
vs Stronger (19)
0.95
3.47
0.90
3.20
1.00
3.78
vs Similar (9)
1.56
2.22
1.50
1.50
1.60
2.80
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
1.50
0.00
3.00
7.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
93.5%
Under 1.5
6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
80.9%
Under 2.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
63.1%
Under 3.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.0%
No
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-1
8.2%
3-0
7.6%
2-1
7.5%
2-0
6.9%
4-1
6.7%
4-0
6.2%
1-1
5.1%
3-2
4.4%
St Joseph S Fc goals ↓
Europa Point goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.8%
0.9%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
1
3.8%
5.1%
2.5%
0.9%
0.2%
2
6.9%
7.5%
4.1%
1.5%
0.4%
3
7.6%
8.2%
4.4%
1.6%
0.4%
4
6.2%
6.7%
3.6%
1.3%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = St Joseph S Fc goals (down), columns = Europa Point goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
St Joseph S Fc is 1.33 points better than Europa Point in terms of average points per game (2.33 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
St Joseph S Fc is 2.15 goals better than Europa Point in terms of goals scored per game (3.56 vs 1.41).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
St Joseph S Fc is 2.14 goals better than Europa Point in terms of goals conceded per game (0.63 vs 2.77).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
St Joseph S Fc or Draw
91.7%
Avg Implied -
79%
13%
8%
covers St Joseph S Fc + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc or Europa Point
87.2%
Avg Implied -
79%
13%
8%
covers St Joseph S Fc + Europa Point
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Europa Point
21.1%
Avg Implied -
79%
13%
8%
covers Draw + Europa Point
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 0.5
Over
96.2%
Under
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 1.5
Over
83.7%
Under
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 2.5
Over
63.4%
Under
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 3.5
Over
41.2%
Under
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 0.5
Over
66.1%
Under
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 1.5
Over
29.4%
Under
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 2.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to St Joseph S Fc, so a minus line means St Joseph S Fc give that many goals of a start and Europa Point receive them. At -1, St Joseph S Fc must win by two or more to land; a one-goal St Joseph S Fc win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (St Joseph S Fc)
St Joseph S Fc -2
42.1%
Draw -2
19.6%
Europa Point +2
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (St Joseph S Fc)
St Joseph S Fc -1
61.7%
Draw -1
17.2%
Europa Point +1
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (St Joseph S Fc)
St Joseph S Fc +1
91.7%
Draw +1
5.4%
Europa Point -1
2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (St Joseph S Fc)
St Joseph S Fc +2
97.1%
Draw +2
2.1%
Europa Point -2
0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
St Joseph S Fc
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.27
1.47
0.40
1.33
0.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.10
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.55
0.35
1.55
0.45
1.56
0.22
Clean sheet %
80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa Point) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Europa Point
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.13
0.50
0.86
0.50
1.38
vs Stronger (19)
0.47
1.26
0.56
1.00
0.40
1.50
vs Similar (9)
0.44
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
St Joseph S Fc
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.47
1.80
0.60
1.93
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.20
0.70
2.00
1.25
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (20)
2.20
0.35
1.73
0.36
2.78
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa Point) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Europa Point
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.83
0.57
1.86
1.00
1.81
vs Stronger (19)
0.47
2.21
0.44
2.22
0.50
2.20
vs Similar (9)
1.11
1.22
1.00
1.00
1.20
1.40
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
St Joseph S Fc and Europa Point have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
St Joseph S Fc and Europa Point have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
St Joseph S Fc and Europa Point have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
St Joseph S Fc and Europa Point have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Europa
Magpies
Lions Gibraltar
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Hound Dogs
College 1975
Lynx
Glacis United
Mons Calpe