St Joseph S FC is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 70% chance of taking the three points. The model rates them so highly due to their impressive home form, particularly against weaker opponents, where they've averaged 4.2 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded. Lions Gibraltar, on the other hand, have struggled on the road, averaging only 0.6 goals scored and 3.8 conceded against stronger opponents.
The expected total goals is 3.4, with the most likely total goals being 3. The model's most likely score is a 2-0 home win for St Joseph S FC, but this outcome is not the only possible result. The home side's home scoring and conceding are both strong, while the away side's away scoring and conceding are poor.
The model's selection is the home win, with a 70% chance of success. The draw percentage is 18%, and the away win percentage is 12%. The model's other selection is Over 1.5, which has a 86.4% chance of being correct.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, St Joseph S Fc's home win streak came to an end with a 3-3 draw against Lions Gibraltar. The win extends their run of draws, following a previous 3-3 tie against the same opponent. The pre-match favourite, a home win, did not come through, as the model's selection was incorrect. The model had predicted a home win with a 70% probability. The model's selection, a home win, was wrong. The model's call on the most likely total goals of 3 was also incorrect. In contrast, the model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit with a 86.4% probability, as the final score was 3-3.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
St Joseph S Fc win✗ Miss
69.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
18.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar win✗ Miss
11.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
St Joseph S Fc
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.27
0.73
3.29
0.93
3.25
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.00
1.40
0.50
2.50
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
3.72
0.60
3.75
0.67
3.69
0.54
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lions Gibraltar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.83
2.00
1.79
1.44
1.88
vs Stronger (14)
1.29
2.57
1.57
2.00
1.00
3.14
vs Similar (8)
1.25
1.38
1.00
2.00
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
2.88
1.00
3.50
1.25
2.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.4%
Under 1.5
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.6%
Under 2.5
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.8%
Under 3.5
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.2%
No
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.9%
2-1
9.5%
1-1
8.5%
3-0
8.2%
3-1
7.8%
1-0
7.3%
4-0
5.0%
4-1
4.8%
St Joseph S Fc goals ↓
Lions Gibraltar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
2.3%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
1
7.3%
8.5%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
2
9.9%
9.5%
4.5%
1.5%
0.3%
3
8.2%
7.8%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
4
5.0%
4.8%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = St Joseph S Fc goals (down), columns = Lions Gibraltar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
Manchester 62
0.77
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
St Joseph S Fc is 0.74 points better than Lions Gibraltar in terms of average points per game (2.33 vs 1.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Manchester 62
1.27
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
St Joseph S Fc is 1.59 goals better than Lions Gibraltar in terms of goals scored per game (3.56 vs 1.96).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Manchester 62
3.59
St Joseph S Fc is 1.00 goals better than Lions Gibraltar in terms of goals conceded per game (0.63 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
St Joseph S Fc
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.27
1.43
0.36
1.31
0.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.20
0.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.52
0.28
1.67
0.33
1.38
0.23
Clean sheet %
77% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lions Gibraltar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.97
1.21
0.86
0.94
1.06
vs Stronger (14)
0.79
1.50
0.86
1.14
0.71
1.86
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.50
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (8)
1.75
0.50
2.25
0.75
1.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Europa
Mons Calpe
Lynx
Magpies
Europa Point
Manchester 62
College 1975
Glacis United
Hound Dogs