St Joseph S Fc are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 66% chance of a home win. Their recent 2-1 victory over Mons Calpe and the fact that they play at home against a weaker opponent boost their odds, while Lions Gibraltar’s away form shows a 1.67 average goals scored and 3.5 conceded, a disadvantage at this venue. The expected total of 3.6 goals points to a lively match, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for St Joseph S Fc, with a 9.5% probability. The model picks a home win as the favoured result, and the predicted total of 3 goals has a 21% chance. Home side St Joseph S Fc average 3.27 goals scored and 0.82 conceded at home, whereas Lions Gibraltar average 1.67 scored and 3.5 conceded away. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (97.3%), Under 7.5 (97.1%), Home +2 handicap (94.3%), Under 6.5 (93.0%), Home over 0.5 goals (91.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.7%), Over 1.5 (87.8%) and Home or Draw (85.1%). The model also lists the match-result probabilities: 66% home win, 19% draw, 15% away win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
St Joseph S Fc win
62.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar win
17.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
St Joseph S Fc
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.27
0.73
3.27
1.00
3.27
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
2.30
0.80
3.25
1.50
1.67
0.33
vs Weaker (20)
3.75
0.70
3.27
0.82
4.33
0.56
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lions Gibraltar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.73
2.00
1.57
1.75
1.88
vs Stronger (12)
1.67
2.58
1.67
1.67
1.67
3.50
vs Similar (9)
1.22
1.33
1.00
1.75
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (9)
2.78
1.00
3.50
1.25
2.20
0.80
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.7%
Under 1.5
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68.7%
Under 2.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
47.3%
Under 3.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.9%
No
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.5%
1-1
8.9%
2-0
8.0%
3-1
7.5%
3-0
6.2%
1-0
6.0%
2-2
5.7%
1-2
4.9%
St Joseph S Fc goals ↓
Lions Gibraltar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
2.7%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
1
6.0%
8.9%
4.9%
1.9%
0.6%
2
8.0%
9.5%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
3
6.2%
7.5%
4.5%
1.8%
0.5%
4
3.7%
4.4%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = St Joseph S Fc goals (down), columns = Lions Gibraltar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
St Joseph S Fc is 0.74 points better than Lions Gibraltar in terms of average points per game (2.33 vs 1.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
St Joseph S Fc is 1.59 goals better than Lions Gibraltar in terms of goals scored per game (3.56 vs 1.96).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
St Joseph S Fc is 1.00 goals better than Lions Gibraltar in terms of goals conceded per game (0.63 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
St Joseph S Fc or Draw
82.6%
Avg Implied -
62%
20%
17%
covers St Joseph S Fc + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc or Lions Gibraltar
79.5%
Avg Implied -
62%
20%
17%
covers St Joseph S Fc + Lions Gibraltar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lions Gibraltar
37.8%
Avg Implied -
62%
20%
17%
covers Draw + Lions Gibraltar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 0.5
Over
90.4%
Under
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 1.5
Over
68.0%
Under
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 2.5
Over
41.6%
Under
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 3.5
Over
21.0%
Under
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5
Over
69.8%
Under
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5
Over
33.6%
Under
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to St Joseph S Fc, so a minus line means St Joseph S Fc give that many goals of a start and Lions Gibraltar receive them. At -1, St Joseph S Fc must win by two or more to land; a one-goal St Joseph S Fc win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (St Joseph S Fc)
St Joseph S Fc -2
22.4%
Draw -2
18.6%
Lions Gibraltar +2
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (St Joseph S Fc)
St Joseph S Fc -1
41.0%
Draw -1
21.2%
Lions Gibraltar +1
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (St Joseph S Fc)
St Joseph S Fc +1
82.6%
Draw +1
10.4%
Lions Gibraltar -1
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (St Joseph S Fc)
St Joseph S Fc +2
93.0%
Draw +2
4.8%
Lions Gibraltar -2
2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
St Joseph S Fc
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.27
1.47
0.40
1.33
0.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.10
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.55
0.35
1.55
0.45
1.56
0.22
Clean sheet %
80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lions Gibraltar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.93
1.21
0.86
1.19
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
1.54
0.86
1.14
1.17
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.50
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (9)
1.78
0.44
2.25
0.75
1.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
St Joseph S Fc
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.47
1.80
0.60
1.93
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.20
0.70
2.00
1.25
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (20)
2.20
0.35
1.73
0.36
2.78
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lions Gibraltar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.79
0.93
0.56
0.88
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.15
0.71
0.86
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.88
0.33
1.67
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.56
1.25
0.50
0.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
St Joseph S Fc and Lions Gibraltar have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
St Joseph S Fc and Lions Gibraltar have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
St Joseph S Fc and Lions Gibraltar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
St Joseph S Fc and Lions Gibraltar have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Europa
Magpies
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Hound Dogs
College 1975
Lynx
Glacis United
Europa Point
Mons Calpe