St Joseph S Fc is the clear favourite to win at home against Lynx, with a 67% chance of victory. The model's high rating for the home side is due in part to Lynx's struggles on the road, where they've averaged just 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded against stronger opponents. St Joseph S Fc, meanwhile, has been a force at home, scoring 4.7 goals per match while conceding just 0.4.
The expected total number of goals is 3.4, with the most likely outcome being a 3-goal match. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, although it's worth noting that this outcome has a relatively low probability of 9.7%.
The model's selection is the home win, which it rates as the most likely outcome. In addition, the model suggests taking Over 1.5 goals, which has an 86% probability. St Joseph S Fc has a 67% chance of winning, a 20% chance of drawing, and a 14% chance of losing. The suggested picks also include the Over 1.5 goals selection, which has an 86% probability.
Results analysis
The win extends St Joseph S Fc's run, their first in four matches, after a draw in their previous outing. The final score of 1-0 was a far cry from the predicted outcome, with the actual result a home win. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 67%. The model's selection was the favourite, as expected. The model's call on the outcome was correct, but it failed to accurately predict the low-scoring nature of the game, with the suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals missing, having a probability of 86%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
St Joseph S Fc win✓ Hit
66.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lynx win✗ Miss
13.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
St Joseph S Fc
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.50
0.67
3.53
0.93
3.47
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.00
1.40
0.50
2.50
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
4.00
0.52
4.00
0.69
4.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Lynx) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lynx
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.90
1.29
2.50
1.62
1.38
vs Stronger (13)
1.15
2.92
0.86
4.14
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (8)
1.25
1.62
1.00
2.00
1.33
1.50
vs Weaker (9)
2.11
0.67
2.00
0.40
2.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
86.0%
Under 1.5
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
65.8%
Under 2.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.9%
Under 3.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.6%
No
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.7%
2-0
9.5%
1-1
9.0%
3-1
7.6%
3-0
7.5%
1-0 ✓
7.2%
2-2
4.9%
4-1
4.5%
St Joseph S Fc goals ↓
Lynx goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
2.6%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
1
7.2%
9.0%
4.1%
1.4%
0.4%
2
9.5%
9.7%
4.9%
1.7%
0.4%
3
7.5%
7.6%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
4
4.5%
4.5%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = St Joseph S Fc goals (down), columns = Lynx goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
Manchester 62
0.77
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
St Joseph S Fc is 1.07 points better than Lynx in terms of average points per game (2.33 vs 1.26).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Manchester 62
1.27
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
St Joseph S Fc is 2.15 goals better than Lynx in terms of goals scored per game (3.56 vs 1.41).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Manchester 62
3.59
St Joseph S Fc is 1.04 goals better than Lynx in terms of goals conceded per game (0.63 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
St Joseph S Fc
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.23
1.60
0.33
1.40
0.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.20
0.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.68
0.24
1.85
0.31
1.50
0.17
Clean sheet %
80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Lynx) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lynx
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.77
0.62
1.00
0.94
0.59
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.33
0.83
0.67
vs Similar (8)
0.62
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
0.30
0.60
0.20
1.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Europa
Mons Calpe
Lions Gibraltar
Magpies
Europa Point
Manchester 62
College 1975
Glacis United
Hound Dogs