St Joseph S Fc are the clear favourites, with the model rating a 68% chance of a home win, 18% for a draw and 14% for a Mons Calpe victory. The prediction favours a 2-1 result, the most likely scoreline, with an 8.8% probability. The average goal tally is 4.0, and the model expects a total of 6 + goals with a 21% chance. St Joseph’s home form is strong against weaker opposition, scoring 3.4 goals and conceding only 0.8 on average, while Mons Calpe’s away form against stronger teams is weak, averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The suggested picks include an Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.4%, Under 7.5 at 95.2%, Home +2 handicap at 94.3%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 94.1%, Home over 0.5 goals at 93.4%, and Over 1.5 at 91.1%. The home side’s recent draw after a 3-3 with Lions Gibraltar and Mons Calpe’s recent 1-4 loss to Europa underline the venue advantage for St Joseph.
Results analysis
St Joseph S Fc’s victory over Mons Calpe extended their winning run, confirming the model’s prediction of a home win, which it had assigned a 68% probability to. The final score of 2-1 matched the most likely 2-1 outcome, and the result was a home win as forecast. The model’s favourite call was correct. Every suggested selection was settled: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.7%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 96.4%, Under 7.5 hit at 95.2%, Home +2 handicap hit at 94.3%, Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 94.3%, Home over 0.5 goals hit at 93.4%, and Over 1.5 hit at 91.1%. The model’s selections performed consistently with the match’s outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
St Joseph S Fc win✓ Hit
68.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
17.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe win✗ Miss
14.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
St Joseph S Fc
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.27
0.77
3.36
1.00
3.19
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
2.27
0.91
3.25
1.50
1.71
0.57
vs Weaker (19)
3.84
0.68
3.40
0.80
4.33
0.56
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mons Calpe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.53
1.79
1.43
2.62
1.62
vs Stronger (6)
1.33
2.33
1.33
2.67
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (15)
2.07
1.73
2.00
1.43
2.12
2.00
vs Weaker (9)
3.11
0.67
1.75
0.50
4.20
0.80
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.1%
Under 1.5
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
75.5%
Under 2.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
55.7%
Under 3.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.8%
No
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1 ✓
8.8%
3-1
8.0%
2-0
7.1%
1-1
7.1%
3-0
6.5%
4-1
5.4%
2-2
5.4%
3-2
4.9%
St Joseph S Fc goals ↓
Mons Calpe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.6%
1.7%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
1
4.6%
7.1%
4.0%
1.6%
0.5%
2
7.1%
8.8%
5.4%
2.2%
0.7%
3
6.5%
8.0%
4.9%
2.0%
0.6%
4
4.4%
5.4%
3.3%
1.4%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = St Joseph S Fc goals (down), columns = Mons Calpe goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
St Joseph S Fc is 0.37 points better than Mons Calpe in terms of average points per game (2.33 vs 1.96).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Europa
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
St Joseph S Fc is 1.22 goals better than Mons Calpe in terms of goals scored per game (3.56 vs 2.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
St Joseph S Fc is 0.67 goals better than Mons Calpe in terms of goals conceded per game (0.63 vs 1.30).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
St Joseph S Fc or Draw✓ Hit
85.7%
Avg Implied -
68%
18%
14%
covers St Joseph S Fc + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc or Mons Calpe✓ Hit
82.5%
Avg Implied -
68%
18%
14%
covers St Joseph S Fc + Mons Calpe
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Mons Calpe✗ Miss
31.8%
Avg Implied -
68%
18%
14%
covers Draw + Mons Calpe
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
93.4%
Under
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
75.5%
Under
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
51.2%
Under
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
29.1%
Under
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.8%
Under
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.8%
Under
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to St Joseph S Fc, so a minus line means St Joseph S Fc give that many goals of a start and Mons Calpe receive them. At -1, St Joseph S Fc must win by two or more to land; a one-goal St Joseph S Fc win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (St Joseph S Fc)Actual: Mons Calpe
St Joseph S Fc -2
29.1%
Draw -2
19.2%
Mons Calpe +2
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (St Joseph S Fc)Actual: Draw
St Joseph S Fc -1
48.4%
Draw -1
19.8%
Mons Calpe +1
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (St Joseph S Fc)Actual: St Joseph S Fc
St Joseph S Fc +1
85.7%
Draw +1
8.6%
Mons Calpe -1
5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (St Joseph S Fc)Actual: St Joseph S Fc
St Joseph S Fc +2
94.3%
Draw +2
3.9%
Mons Calpe -2
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
St Joseph S Fc
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.30
1.50
0.43
1.31
0.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.09
0.18
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.14
vs Weaker (19)
1.58
0.37
1.60
0.50
1.56
0.22
Clean sheet %
77% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mons Calpe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.70
0.79
0.64
1.12
0.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.80
1.00
0.71
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (9)
1.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
2.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.3%
Under 0.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
47.6%
Under 1.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
26.3%
Under 2.5
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
72.0%
Under
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
34.2%
Under
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
32.3%
Under
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
St Joseph S Fc
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.47
1.86
0.57
1.88
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.18
0.73
2.00
1.25
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (19)
2.26
0.32
1.80
0.30
2.78
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mons Calpe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.83
1.00
0.79
1.50
0.88
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (15)
1.20
0.93
1.00
0.71
1.38
1.12
vs Weaker (9)
1.78
0.33
1.25
0.50
2.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
85.9%
Under 0.5
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.3%
Under 1.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
29.5%
Under 2.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
79.0%
Under
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
44.3%
Under
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.5%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
43.7%
Under
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 HT goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
St Joseph S Fc and Mons Calpe have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
St Joseph S Fc and Mons Calpe have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
St Joseph S Fc and Mons Calpe have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
St Joseph S Fc and Mons Calpe have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →