ST Mirren’s home form shows a balanced 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against stronger opposition, while Rangers arrive from a win, averaging 2.6 goals scored and 1.7 conceded at away venues against weaker sides. The model projects a high-scoring encounter with an expected 3.5 goals and a 3-goal total most likely, though the single most probable scoreline is 1-2 for Rangers with a 9.6% chance. The probabilities favour an away win at 61%, a draw at 21%, and a home win at 18%. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals (87.3%), Under 25.5 fouls (86.4%), Under 5.5 cards (80.2%), Under 23.5 fouls (75.3%), Over 2.5 cards (74.5%) and Over 8.5 corners (75.4%). The match is expected to be a lively affair, with Rangers the clear favorites.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Rangers, failed to deliver, as the match finished 2-2, a draw that left the model’s pick wrong. The final score of 2-2 matched the actual result, and the model’s prediction of an away win with a 61% probability proved incorrect. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 87.3% chance, was hit, as were Under 25.5 fouls (86.4%), Under 5.5 cards (80.2%), Under 23.5 fouls (75.3%) and Over 2.5 cards (74.5%). The only miss was Over 8.5 corners, which had a 75.4% probability. The game reflected the home side’s recent form, coming off a draw, and the away side’s recent win, keeping the narrative of an unexpected stalemate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
ST Mirren winâś— Miss
17.9%
Avg Implied 25.0% · @ 3.74
Edge
-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś“ Hit
20.9%
Avg Implied 23.9% · @ 3.91
Edge
-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rangers winâś— Miss
61.2%
Avg Implied 51.1% · @ 1.83
Edge
+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
ST Mirren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.53
1.40
1.27
1.33
1.80
vs Stronger (13)
1.38
1.69
1.50
1.50
1.29
1.86
vs Similar (16)
1.25
1.44
1.33
1.11
1.14
1.86
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.30
1.93
0.80
2.40
1.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.60
1.40
1.20
0.80
2.00
2.00
vs Weaker (20)
2.45
1.25
2.30
0.80
2.60
1.70
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.3%
Under 1.5
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.0%
@ 1.77+14.8%
Under 2.5
32.0%
@ 2.01-14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.4%
Under 3.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.7%
No
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.6%
1-1
9.2%
0-2
8.0%
1-3
7.4%
0-3
6.1%
0-1
6.1%
2-2 âś“
5.8%
2-1
5.0%
ST Mirren goals ↓
Rangers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
6.1%
8.0%
6.1%
3.5%
1
2.8%
9.2%
9.6%
7.4%
4.2%
2
2.2%
5.0%
5.8%
4.4%
2.5%
3
0.9%
2.0%
2.3%
1.8%
1.0%
4
0.3%
0.6%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ST Mirren goals (down), columns = Rangers goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Livingston
2.50
Celtic
2.42
Rangers
1.97
Hibernian
1.53
Ayr Utd
1.50
Aberdeen
1.39
Dundee Utd
1.39
Heart Of Midlothian
1.37
ST Mirren
1.32
Motherwell
1.29
Kilmarnock
1.16
Dundee
1.08
Ross County
0.95
ST Johnstone
0.84
Partick
0.75
ST Mirren is 0.66 points worse than Rangers in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.95
Livingston
2.25
Rangers
2.11
Hibernian
1.63
Dundee
1.50
ST Mirren
1.39
Heart Of Midlothian
1.37
Aberdeen
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Kilmarnock
1.18
Dundee Utd
1.18
Ross County
1.00
ST Johnstone
1.00
Partick
0.50
Ayr Utd
0.50
ST Mirren is 0.71 goals worse than Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 2.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.68
Livingston
0.75
Ayr Utd
1.00
Rangers
1.08
Heart Of Midlothian
1.24
Partick
1.25
Hibernian
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.42
ST Mirren
1.55
Aberdeen
1.61
Motherwell
1.66
Kilmarnock
1.68
Ross County
1.75
ST Johnstone
1.79
Dundee
2.03
ST Mirren is 0.47 goals worse than Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.55 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
74%
Rangers
63%
Heart Of Midlothian
54%
Aberdeen
53%
ST Johnstone
53%
Hibernian
45%
Dundee
44%
Dundee Utd
44%
Kilmarnock
44%
ST Mirren
42%
Motherwell
42%
Ross County
40%
ST Mirren is 20.4 percentage points worse than Rangers in terms of average possession (42% vs 63%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
0.73
0.40
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (13)
0.92
0.54
1.00
0.50
0.86
0.57
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.50
0.56
0.33
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
0.73
0.27
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.30
0.40
0.20
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (20)
0.90
0.75
0.90
0.30
0.90
1.20
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.03
0.67
0.87
0.47
1.20
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.15
0.50
1.00
0.43
1.29
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.94
0.78
0.78
0.43
1.14
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.70
1.20
0.53
1.47
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.90
1.10
0.80
0.60
1.00
1.60
vs Weaker (20)
1.55
0.50
1.40
0.50
1.70
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
ST Mirren's squad is €129m less valuable than Rangers's (€8m vs €136m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
ST Mirren's attack is €37m less valuable than Rangers's (€1m vs €38m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
ST Mirren's midfield is €41m less valuable than Rangers's (€3m vs €44m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
ST Mirren's defence is €50m less valuable than Rangers's (€3m vs €54m).
Scotland: Premiership 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →