St Patrick’s Athl. are the clear favourites, with the model giving a 66% chance of a home win, 22% for a draw and 12% for Dundalk. The 66% home win probability reflects the Saints’ strong 1.7 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Dundalk’s 1.5 goals scored and 1.92 conceded away suggests a tougher challenge. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a lively match, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-0 for St Patrick’s Athl. with a 12.2% chance. The model’s suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards (81.8%), Over 1.5 goals (79.0%), Over 19.5 fouls (76.8%), Over 8.5 corners (73.6%) and Under 5.5 cards (71.6%) and Under 25.5 fouls (70.2%). The home side’s recent form shows a 2-game winning streak, while Dundalk are coming off two straight defeats. These figures together paint a picture of a high-scoring home victory for St Patrick’s Athl. as the most probable outcome.
Results analysis
St Patrick's Athl. were the pre-match favourite, with the model giving a 66% chance of a home win, yet the match finished 1-1, a draw that extended their two-game winning run. The model’s call was wrong. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 2.5 cards hit at 81.8%, Over 1.5 hit at 79.0%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 76.8%, and Over 8.5 corners hit at 73.6%. However, Under 5.5 cards missed at 71.6% and Under 25.5 fouls missed at 70.2%. The final score of 1-1 matched the model’s most likely score of 1-0, but the draw surprised the prediction.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. win✗ Miss
66.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dundalk win✗ Miss
12.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
St Patrick's Athl.
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.73
2.20
0.47
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.14
0.77
1.70
0.50
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
2.50
0.62
3.20
0.40
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundalk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.47
2.00
1.20
1.47
1.73
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.71
1.67
1.92
1.42
1.50
1.92
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.75
3.00
0.50
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.0%
Under 1.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.8%
Under 2.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.4%
Under 3.5
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.9%
No
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.2%
1-0
10.8%
1-1 ✓
10.3%
2-1
9.7%
3-0
8.4%
3-1
6.7%
0-0
6.6%
4-0
4.4%
St Patrick's Athl. goals ↓
Dundalk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
3.6%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
1
11%
10%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
9.7%
3.9%
1.0%
0.2%
3
8.4%
6.7%
2.7%
0.7%
0.1%
4
4.4%
3.5%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = St Patrick's Athl. goals (down), columns = Dundalk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
2.00
St Patrick's Athl.
1.79
Bohemians
1.68
Dundalk
1.32
Shelbourne
1.31
Galway United
1.22
Derry City
1.18
Waterford
1.04
Drogheda United
1.00
Sligo Rovers
0.82
St Patrick's Athl. is 0.46 points better than Dundalk in terms of average points per game (1.79 vs 1.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bohemians
1.68
St Patrick's Athl.
1.61
Shamrock Rovers
1.59
Dundalk
1.54
Shelbourne
1.38
Derry City
1.36
Waterford
1.32
Galway United
1.30
Drogheda United
1.11
Sligo Rovers
0.82
St Patrick's Athl. is 0.07 goals better than Dundalk in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 1.54).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.82
Shamrock Rovers
0.89
Bohemians
1.21
Derry City
1.32
Shelbourne
1.46
Galway United
1.52
Dundalk
1.54
Sligo Rovers
1.61
Drogheda United
1.61
Waterford
1.71
St Patrick's Athl. is 0.71 goals better than Dundalk in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 1.54).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
63%
Bohemians
58%
St Patrick's Athl.
54%
Derry City
54%
Shelbourne
53%
Dundalk
52%
Sligo Rovers
47%
Drogheda United
40%
Galway United
39%
Waterford
39%
St Patrick's Athl. is 2.3 percentage points better than Dundalk in terms of average possession (54% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
St Patrick's Athl.
For 6.1 · Against 5.0 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 3.3 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 13.0 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundalk
For 5.8 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 11.9 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
St Patrick's Athl.
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.0
10.7
4.3
4.2
4.4
22.9
23.4
22.3
vs Stronger (2)
3.5
5.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
vs Similar (35)
10.3
9.9
10.8
4.7
4.9
4.6
22.9
23.8
22.0
vs Weaker (13)
11.4
11.0
11.8
3.5
2.9
4.2
23.3
23.0
23.7
% over line
60%
55%
65%
62%
52%
72%
58%
64%
52%
% under line
40%
45%
35%
38%
48%
28%
42%
36%
48%
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundalk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.3
11.6
2.3
2.6
2.0
23.1
21.6
24.8
vs Stronger (2)
8.5
9.0
8.0
6.5
5.0
8.0
25.5
19.0
32.0
vs Similar (31)
11.2
10.5
12.0
3.3
4.1
2.6
22.9
21.8
24.1
vs Weaker (17)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
70%
67%
73%
30%
28%
32%
70%
58%
82%
% under line
30%
33%
27%
70%
72%
68%
30%
42%
18%
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sligo Rovers
11.1
Waterford
11.0
Dundalk
10.4
Galway United
10.4
Drogheda United
10.2
St Patrick's Athl.
10.1
Bohemians
9.9
Shelbourne
9.5
Derry City
9.3
Shamrock Rovers
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Derry City
5.3
Dundalk
5.1
St Patrick's Athl.
5.0
Shamrock Rovers
5.0
Shelbourne
4.9
Waterford
4.9
Bohemians
4.8
Galway United
4.6
Drogheda United
4.5
Sligo Rovers
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dundalk
23.1
Bohemians
23.0
Derry City
23.0
Galway United
22.8
St Patrick's Athl.
22.7
Waterford
22.7
Shamrock Rovers
22.1
Shelbourne
21.5
Drogheda United
21.4
Sligo Rovers
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
62.2%
Under 9.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
64.5%
Under 3.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
61.7%
Under 21.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
St Patrick's Athl.
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
1.00
0.40
0.40
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.41
1.00
0.40
0.17
0.42
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.50
1.00
0.40
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundalk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
0.87
0.33
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.58
0.92
0.42
0.83
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
St Patrick's Athl.
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.30
1.20
0.07
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.36
0.70
0.10
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.12
2.20
0.00
0.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
80% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundalk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.97
1.13
0.87
0.67
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
1.08
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.75
2.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (21)
€5m
DC (21)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
St Patrick's Athl.'s squad is €2m more valuable than Dundalk's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
St Patrick's Athl.'s attack is €1m more valuable than Dundalk's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
SPA (8)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shamrock Rovers
Bohemians
Shelbourne
Derry City
Galway United
Waterford
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers