St Patrick’s Athl. are the clear favourites, their 64% chance of victory reflecting a strong home form that has yielded 1.64 goals scored and only 0.64 conceded against similar opposition. Waterford, struggling away with 1.38 goals for and 2.38 against, face a venue that favours the hosts. The model’s pick is a home win, and the expected total of 3.1 goals suggests a lively match. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 10.7% probability, aligning with the home side’s recent 2-0 win over Drogheda United. The draw probability sits at 22%, while the away win probability is 14%. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.1%), Under 7.5 (98.6% with a 2% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.6%), Home +2 handicap (96.7% with a 2% edge), Under 6.5 (96.3% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 goals (95.3% with a 3% edge) and Away under 1.5 HT goals (94.2% with a 4% edge).
Results analysis
The upset came early as St Patrick's Athl. fell to a 0-2 defeat, extending their recent slump of LWWDD and ending a run that had seen them win twice in a row. The pre-match favourite, a Home win, was predicted with a 64% probability, but the model was wrong as Waterford emerged victorious. The model’s selections were mixed: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.2%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.7%, Under 7.5 hit at 98.6%, Under 6.5 hit at 96.3%, Away under 2.5 goals hit at 95.3%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 94.2%. The Home +2 handicap missed at 96.7%. The final score of 0-2 confirmed Waterford’s win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. win✗ Miss
64.1%
Avg Implied 69.5% · @ 1.33
Edge
-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.37
Unibet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.34
SBO
1.34
Draw✗ Miss
21.5%
Avg Implied 18.4% · @ 5.03
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.66
1xBet
5.20
Dafabet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.20
BetVictor
5.00
Waterford win✓ Hit
14.4%
Avg Implied 12.1% · @ 7.68
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.20
1xBet
8.10
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
St Patrick's Athl.
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.80
2.00
0.60
1.07
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.22
0.87
1.64
0.64
0.83
1.08
vs Weaker (7)
2.57
0.57
3.00
0.50
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Waterford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.67
1.33
1.13
1.33
2.20
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.42
1.73
1.46
1.08
1.38
2.38
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.0%
@ 1.15+1.3%
Under 1.5
18.0%
@ 4.82-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Under
Betfair
5.50
Pinnacle
5.37
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.2%
@ 1.54-1.3%
Under 2.5
40.8%
@ 2.35+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
BetVictor
1.54
Under
Pinnacle
2.48
Betfair
2.45
10Bet
2.40
Superbet
2.37
Bet365
2.35
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.8%
@ 2.36-2.8%
Under 3.5
63.2%
@ 1.55+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.46
Marathonbet
2.40
Betfair
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Under
10Bet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Betfair
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.55
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.4%
@ 1.81+3.2%
No
45.6%
@ 1.90-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.83
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
No
Bet365
1.95
William Hil
1.95
10Bet
1.90
BetVictor
1.90
Betfair
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.6%@ 6.69+4.0%
1-1
10.2%@ 9.16+5.3%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.83+4.2%
1-0
9.0%@ 7.72+3.3%
3-0
7.6%@ 8.56+2.4%
3-1
7.0%@ 9.71+2.5%
0-0
5.6%@ 14.58+2.5%
2-2
4.6%@ 16.85+2.0%
St Patrick's Athl. goals ↓
Waterford goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
3.4%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
1
9.0%
10%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
3
7.6%
7.0%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
4
4.0%
3.8%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = St Patrick's Athl. goals (down), columns = Waterford goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.96
St Patrick's Athl.
1.72
Bohemians
1.72
Dundalk
1.38
Shelbourne
1.30
Galway United
1.21
Derry City
1.17
Waterford
1.10
Drogheda United
0.97
Sligo Rovers
0.79
St Patrick's Athl. is 0.62 points better than Waterford in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 1.10).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bohemians
1.72
Shamrock Rovers
1.64
Dundalk
1.59
St Patrick's Athl.
1.55
Derry City
1.41
Shelbourne
1.37
Waterford
1.34
Galway United
1.29
Drogheda United
1.14
Sligo Rovers
0.79
St Patrick's Athl. is 0.21 goals better than Waterford in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 1.34).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.86
Shamrock Rovers
0.96
Bohemians
1.17
Derry City
1.38
Shelbourne
1.44
Galway United
1.50
Dundalk
1.55
Sligo Rovers
1.66
Drogheda United
1.66
Waterford
1.66
St Patrick's Athl. is 0.79 goals better than Waterford in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.66).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
62%
Bohemians
59%
St Patrick's Athl.
55%
Derry City
54%
Shelbourne
53%
Dundalk
52%
Sligo Rovers
46%
Drogheda United
40%
Galway United
40%
Waterford
39%
St Patrick's Athl. is 16.3 percentage points better than Waterford in terms of average possession (55% vs 39%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
St Patrick's Athl.
For 6.2 · Against 4.9 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 3.6 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 12.4 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Waterford
For 5.3 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 8.5 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
St Patrick's Athl.
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.0
10.1
4.4
4.2
4.6
23.1
24.0
22.2
vs Stronger (2)
3.5
5.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
vs Similar (36)
10.1
9.8
10.4
4.9
4.9
4.8
23.4
24.9
22.0
vs Weaker (12)
11.2
11.6
10.8
3.2
2.3
4.2
22.5
21.8
23.2
% over line
60%
59%
61%
62%
52%
72%
60%
68%
52%
% under line
40%
41%
39%
38%
48%
28%
40%
32%
48%
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Waterford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
11.8
9.9
4.5
4.8
4.1
22.5
22.8
22.2
vs Stronger (6)
7.4
8.0
6.5
3.3
3.2
3.5
19.8
19.7
20.0
vs Similar (43)
11.3
12.4
10.2
4.7
5.1
4.4
22.8
23.2
22.4
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
56%
62%
50%
60%
64%
56%
67%
71%
62%
% under line
44%
38%
50%
40%
36%
44%
33%
29%
38%
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sligo Rovers
11.2
Waterford
10.9
Galway United
10.5
Dundalk
10.4
St Patrick's Athl.
10.3
Drogheda United
10.2
Bohemians
10.0
Shelbourne
9.7
Derry City
9.5
Shamrock Rovers
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Derry City
5.2
Dundalk
5.1
St Patrick's Athl.
5.0
Shamrock Rovers
4.8
Bohemians
4.8
Shelbourne
4.8
Waterford
4.7
Galway United
4.6
Drogheda United
4.5
Sligo Rovers
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Galway United
23.4
Dundalk
23.4
Bohemians
23.3
Derry City
23.0
St Patrick's Athl.
22.9
Shamrock Rovers
22.8
Waterford
22.5
Drogheda United
22.0
Shelbourne
21.3
Sligo Rovers
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.5%
@ 1.49-3.2%
Under 9.5
41.5%
@ 2.41+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.52
Unibet
1.48
1xBet
1.45
Under
Marathonbet
2.50
1xBet
2.48
Pinnacle
2.43
Unibet
2.38
Betano
2.37
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
62.6%
Under 3.5
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
63.4%
Under 21.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
St Patrick's Athl. or Draw✗ Miss
89.3%
Avg Implied 87.6% · @ 1.07
Edge
+1.8%
64%
22%
14%
covers St Patrick's Athl. + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
Betfair
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.07
St Patrick's Athl. or Waterford✓ Hit
80.7%
Avg Implied 82.3% · @ 1.14
Edge
-1.6%
64%
22%
14%
covers St Patrick's Athl. + Waterford
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Draw or Waterford✓ Hit
30.0%
Avg Implied 30.2% · @ 3.10
Edge
-0.2%
64%
22%
14%
covers Draw + Waterford
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Marathonbet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.15
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
89.8%
@ 1.07+1.6%
Under
10.2%
@ 7.92-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Under
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Betano
6.70
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
66.4%
@ 1.38-0.6%
Under
33.6%
@ 2.82+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
3.01
Marathonbet
2.88
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
10Bet
2.80
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
39.8%
@ 2.23-1.9%
Under
60.2%
@ 1.60+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.38
1xBet
2.27
Betfair
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
Betano
2.22
Under
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.61
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
19.6%
@ 4.08-3.0%
Under
80.4%
@ 1.20+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.20
Superbet
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Waterford over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
54.9%
@ 1.66-0.9%
Under
45.1%
@ 2.10+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.70
BetVictor
1.67
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.19
BetVictor
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Waterford over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
19.0%
@ 4.29-2.7%
Under
81.0%
@ 1.19+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Pinnacle
4.42
Under
1xBet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Waterford over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 11.42-3.6%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.03+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Marathonbet
12.25
Superbet
12.00
Betfair
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Waterford over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 51.00-99.1%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to St Patrick's Athl., so a minus line means St Patrick's Athl. give that many goals of a start and Waterford receive them. At -1, St Patrick's Athl. must win by two or more to land; a one-goal St Patrick's Athl. win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (St Patrick's Athl.)Actual: Waterford
St Patrick's Athl. -2
26.3%
@ 3.26-1.3%
Draw -2
21.1%
@ 4.05-1.2%
Waterford +2
52.6%
@ 1.80+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
10Bet
3.25
Unibet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.14
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Unibet
3.85
Away
Betfair
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Unibet
1.74
Handicap -1 (St Patrick's Athl.)Actual: Waterford
St Patrick's Athl. -1
47.4%
@ 1.90+0.4%
Draw -1
22.6%
@ 3.66-1.8%
Waterford +1
30.0%
@ 3.12+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.93
Unibet
1.92
10Bet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Betfair
1.83
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Away
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.20
Betfair
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Unibet
2.95
Handicap +1 (St Patrick's Athl.)Actual: Waterford
St Patrick's Athl. +1
89.3%
@ 1.07+2.9%
Draw +1
7.3%
@ 10.50-1.5%
Waterford -1
3.3%
@ 20.00-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Away
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
19.00
Handicap +2 (St Patrick's Athl.)Actual: Draw
St Patrick's Athl. +2
96.7%
@ 1.01+2.2%
Draw +2
2.6%
@ 24.50-1.3%
Waterford -2
0.7%
@ 59.00-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.01
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Bet365
26.00
Betfair
23.00
Away
Betfair
67.00
Bet365
51.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
St Patrick's Athl.
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.43
0.87
0.47
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.43
0.91
0.45
0.33
0.42
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.43
0.75
0.50
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Waterford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.53
0.67
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.81
0.62
0.69
0.77
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
75.2%
@ 1.25+1.1%
Under 0.5
24.8%
@ 3.56-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Under
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.60
William Hil
3.60
Marathonbet
3.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
37.5%
@ 2.24-3.9%
Under 1.5
62.5%
@ 1.59+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.35
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.29
Marathonbet
2.29
Bet365
2.25
Under
Superbet
1.62
Betfair
1.60
10Bet
1.60
William Hil
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.2%
@ 4.96-4.5%
Under 2.5
85.8%
@ 1.14+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
Marathonbet
5.10
1xBet
5.05
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Under
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.14
Betfair
1.13
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
64.0%
@ 1.46+0.2%
Under
36.0%
@ 2.56-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.47
1xBet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.70
Superbet
2.62
1xBet
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Unibet
2.55
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
25.1%
@ 3.15-4.2%
Under
74.9%
@ 1.30+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.24
Betano
3.15
1xBet
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Under
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.4%
@ 7.80-5.4%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.05+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.40
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Waterford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
31.5%
@ 2.92-0.2%
Under
68.5%
@ 1.36+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.17
Marathonbet
2.98
Betano
2.90
10Bet
2.90
Superbet
2.87
Under
1xBet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.36
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Waterford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.8%
@ 9.92-3.6%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.02+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
11.00
1xBet
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Waterford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
St Patrick's Athl.
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.37
1.13
0.13
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.43
0.73
0.18
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
0.14
2.25
0.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Waterford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.87
0.80
0.47
0.60
1.27
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.92
0.85
0.38
0.62
1.46
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
82.9%
@ 1.15+2.2%
Under 0.5
17.1%
@ 4.80-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
1xBet
4.90
Superbet
4.80
William Hil
4.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
52.1%
@ 1.77-0.3%
Under 1.5
47.9%
@ 1.95+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
William Hil
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Unibet
1.76
Under
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.97
Superbet
1.95
Unibet
1.92
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.3%
@ 3.33-4.5%
Under 2.5
76.7%
@ 1.28+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.30
1xBet
3.28
Marathonbet
3.28
Under
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
68.1%
@ 1.29-3.6%
Under
31.9%
@ 3.27+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Under
10Bet
3.40
Betano
3.20
1xBet
3.20
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
29.8%
@ 2.37-9.2%
Under
70.2%
@ 1.52+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.42
1xBet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Betano
2.32
Under
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.9%
@ 5.22-3.9%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.12+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.60
10Bet
5.25
Betano
4.80
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Waterford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
38.4%
@ 2.39-0.2%
Under
61.6%
@ 1.51+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.46
Superbet
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.34
Under
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
Waterford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
8.1%
@ 8.32-3.0%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.04+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.50
10Bet
8.50
1xBet
8.40
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Waterford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.6%
1.01
-
-
-
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
96.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
+2.2%
✗ Miss
Under 6.5
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
95.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.2%
1.02
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.6%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.9%
1.04
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
-
+3.0%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
90.8%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.06
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
89.8%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.05
-
+1.6%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
89.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
Betfair
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.07
+1.8%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
89.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
-
-
-
+2.9%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
86.1%
1.12
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.8%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.9%
1.15
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.0%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
81.0%
1.19
1xBet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
+2.7%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
80.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
80.4%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
80.2%
1.20
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.21
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.7%
1.28
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.2%
1.25
Betano
1.29
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
+1.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
74.9%
1.30
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
70.5%
1.26
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
70.2%
1.52
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
+9.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
St Patrick's Athl.
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Anthony Olusanya50%
A. Keena26%
K. Leavy25%
Ryan Edmondson22%
Zachary Elbouzedi20%
R. Palmer17%
Christopher Forrester11%
S. Hoare9%
Max Mata8%
Anto Breslin5%
J. Lennon4%
D. Nugent4%
J. Brown4%
B. Baggley4%
Luke Turner4%
D. Rogers0%
Tom Grivosti0%
J. McClelland0%
J. Redmond0%
Ronan Boyce0%
Joseph Anang0%
Glory Nzingo0%
Ryan Sheridan0%
Sam Rooney0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
S. Hoare27%
Anthony Olusanya25%
J. Lennon25%
Ryan Sheridan25%
Ronan Boyce20%
J. Brown19%
R. Palmer17%
Ryan Edmondson15%
J. Redmond14%
Luke Turner11%
Tom Grivosti10%
K. Leavy8%
Max Mata8%
Christopher Forrester5%
J. McClelland5%
Anto Breslin5%
Joseph Anang4%
D. Nugent4%
B. Baggley4%
A. Keena0%
D. Rogers0%
Zachary Elbouzedi0%
Glory Nzingo0%
Sam Rooney0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ryan Sheridan25%
A. Keena17%
Zachary Elbouzedi13%
K. Leavy12%
J. Brown12%
Luke Turner11%
J. McClelland10%
J. Lennon8%
J. Redmond7%
R. Palmer6%
Christopher Forrester5%
Ryan Edmondson4%
B. Baggley4%
D. Rogers0%
Tom Grivosti0%
Anthony Olusanya0%
S. Hoare0%
D. Nugent0%
Anto Breslin0%
Max Mata0%
Ronan Boyce0%
Joseph Anang0%
Glory Nzingo0%
Sam Rooney0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Keena26%
Ryan Edmondson26%
Max Mata15%
K. Leavy12%
Christopher Forrester11%
Luke Turner7%
Zachary Elbouzedi7%
R. Palmer6%
J. McClelland5%
J. Brown4%
B. Baggley0%
D. Rogers0%
Tom Grivosti0%
Anthony Olusanya0%
S. Hoare0%
D. Nugent0%
J. Lennon0%
Anto Breslin0%
J. Redmond0%
Ronan Boyce0%
Joseph Anang0%
Glory Nzingo0%
Ryan Sheridan0%
Sam Rooney0%
Waterford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tom Lonergan42%
John Mahon19%
Pádraig Amond19%
J. Voilås13%
K. Long11%
D. McMenamy4%
Benny Couto4%
Conan Noonan4%
Luke Heeney0%
Jordan Faria0%
Jordan Houston0%
Trae Coyle0%
H. Cann0%
Arlo Doherty0%
Conor Carty0%
S. Glenfield0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Evan McLaughlin0%
Noah Mawene0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Will Johnson0%
Cian Barrett0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
Alan Zborowski0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Will Johnson45%
Ronan Mansfield43%
S. Glenfield29%
Luke Heeney27%
John Mahon27%
Evan McLaughlin25%
Noah Mawene25%
Tom Lonergan19%
Jordan Houston18%
K. Long17%
Benny Couto16%
H. Cann14%
D. McMenamy13%
Conan Noonan12%
Cian Barrett9%
J. Voilås9%
Conor Carty7%
Pádraig Amond4%
Jordan Faria0%
Trae Coyle0%
Arlo Doherty0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Alan Zborowski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Benny Couto16%
J. Voilås13%
Evan McLaughlin12%
Conan Noonan12%
Tom Lonergan12%
D. McMenamy9%
Jordan Houston6%
K. Long6%
John Mahon4%
Pádraig Amond4%
H. Cann4%
Luke Heeney0%
Jordan Faria0%
Trae Coyle0%
Arlo Doherty0%
Conor Carty0%
S. Glenfield0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Noah Mawene0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Will Johnson0%
Cian Barrett0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
Alan Zborowski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tom Lonergan42%
Pádraig Amond15%
Benny Couto8%
Conor Carty7%
K. Long6%
J. Voilås4%
John Mahon4%
H. Cann4%
Luke Heeney0%
Jordan Faria0%
Jordan Houston0%
Trae Coyle0%
Conan Noonan0%
D. McMenamy0%
Arlo Doherty0%
S. Glenfield0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Evan McLaughlin0%
Noah Mawene0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Will Johnson0%
Cian Barrett0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
Alan Zborowski0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
St Patrick's Athl.'s squad is €2m more valuable than Waterford's (€5m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shamrock Rovers
Bohemians
Dundalk
Shelbourne
Derry City
Galway United
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers