St. Truiden’s recent win over Antwerp suggests a resilient home side, yet Union St. Gilloise’s unbeaten run and a 3-0 victory away from home point to a stronger campaign. The model favours an away win, with a 52% chance, while home and draw each sit at 24%. The expected total of 3.2 goals hints at a lively affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 11.1% probability. St. Truiden averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against stronger opponents, whereas Union St. Gilloise nets 1.38 and concedes only 0.62 against weaker sides. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.0% with a 3% edge), Under 6.5 (98.4% with a 4% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.7% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.3% with a 3% edge), Under 5.5 (95.4% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (94.6% with a 2% edge), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.3% with a 4% edge).
Results analysis
The match saw Union St. Gilloise extend their two-game winning run with a 0-3 victory over St. Truiden, confirming the model’s prediction of an away win at 52% probability. The favoured result landed, and the final score matched the model’s expectation of an away triumph. The model’s selection of Under 7.5 goals, hit with 99.5% confidence, was followed by a string of accurate low-goal picks: Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.1%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.7%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.2%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (95.9%), Under 5.5 (95.4%), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.6%). All these selections were settled, each hitting as predicted. The model’s overall accuracy was reinforced by the correct outcome and the consistency of its low-goal predictions.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
St. Truiden win✗ Miss
23.2%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.51
Edge
-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.71
1xBet
3.68
Unibet
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Superbet
3.55
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.56
Edge
-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.70
Pinnacle
3.67
Betano
3.65
Dafabet
3.65
Superbet
3.65
Union St. Gilloise win✓ Hit
52.4%
Avg Implied 47.1% · @ 1.98
Edge
+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
Dafabet
2.02
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
St. Truiden
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.33
1.57
1.07
1.88
1.56
vs Stronger (12)
1.00
1.50
1.67
1.50
0.33
1.50
vs Similar (18)
2.22
1.22
1.50
0.75
2.80
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Union St. Gilloise) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Union St. Gilloise
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.83
1.94
0.59
1.23
1.15
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
1.77
1.15
2.00
0.78
1.25
2.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.62
0.50
1.88
0.38
1.38
0.62
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (St. Truiden) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.8%
@ 1.19+4.3%
Under 1.5
17.2%
@ 4.36-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Unibet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.80
Pinnacle
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Unibet
4.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.2%
@ 1.66+3.2%
Under 2.5
39.8%
@ 2.20-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.69
1xBet
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Under
SBO
2.31
Bet365
2.25
Pinnacle
2.25
1xBet
2.21
Betano
2.20
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.9%
@ 2.62+2.1%
Under 3.5
62.1%
@ 1.46-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.80
BetVictor
2.70
Betano
2.70
Superbet
2.67
Unibet
2.65
Under
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.8%
@ 1.56+1.5%
No
39.2%
@ 2.28-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.60
BetVictor
1.57
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.56
No
Betfair
2.40
Unibet
2.30
William Hil
2.30
Superbet
2.30
Betano
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%@ 6.52+4.5%
1-2
9.7%@ 7.68+4.0%
0-2
8.0%@ 10.04+3.6%
0-1
7.4%@ 8.36+2.1%
2-1
6.2%@ 10.58+2.0%
1-3
6.2%@ 12.80+2.7%
2-2
5.9%@ 11.00+1.9%
0-0
5.5%@ 12.62+1.9%
St. Truiden goals ↓
Union St. Gilloise goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
7.4%
8.0%
5.1%
2.4%
1
4.4%
11%
9.7%
6.2%
2.9%
2
3.3%
6.2%
5.9%
3.7%
1.8%
3
1.3%
2.5%
2.4%
1.5%
0.7%
4
0.4%
0.8%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = St. Truiden goals (down), columns = Union St. Gilloise goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lommel United
2.67
Club Brugge KV
2.20
Union St. Gilloise
2.15
St. Truiden
1.77
Genk
1.46
Standard Liege
1.43
Anderlecht
1.38
Zulte Waregem
1.33
KVC Westerlo
1.30
KV Mechelen
1.27
Charleroi
1.27
Gent
1.27
Antwerp
1.20
Kortrijk
1.16
Cercle Brugge
1.14
OH Leuven
1.00
SK Beveren
0.99
RAAL La Louvière
0.94
St. Truiden is 0.38 points worse than Union St. Gilloise in terms of average points per game (1.77 vs 2.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lommel United
2.33
Club Brugge KV
2.27
Union St. Gilloise
1.65
St. Truiden
1.52
Anderlecht
1.48
Zulte Waregem
1.47
Cercle Brugge
1.47
Genk
1.39
Gent
1.29
KVC Westerlo
1.25
Charleroi
1.25
Kortrijk
1.20
KV Mechelen
1.20
Standard Liege
1.10
Antwerp
1.07
OH Leuven
1.02
SK Beveren
1.02
RAAL La Louvière
0.97
St. Truiden is 0.12 goals worse than Union St. Gilloise in terms of goals scored per game (1.52 vs 1.65).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Union St. Gilloise
0.68
Lommel United
0.83
Club Brugge KV
1.12
Standard Liege
1.15
St. Truiden
1.15
Antwerp
1.20
Charleroi
1.25
Genk
1.29
RAAL La Louvière
1.39
Gent
1.39
KVC Westerlo
1.43
Zulte Waregem
1.47
OH Leuven
1.50
KV Mechelen
1.52
Anderlecht
1.55
Kortrijk
1.59
Cercle Brugge
1.61
SK Beveren
1.87
St. Truiden is 0.47 goals worse than Union St. Gilloise in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 0.68).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Club Brugge KV
60%
Genk
58%
St. Truiden
55%
Anderlecht
53%
Union St. Gilloise
52%
Charleroi
50%
Antwerp
49%
KVC Westerlo
49%
KV Mechelen
49%
Gent
49%
Zulte Waregem
48%
Cercle Brugge
48%
OH Leuven
46%
Lommel United
45%
Standard Liege
44%
RAAL La Louvière
39%
St. Truiden is 2.9 percentage points better than Union St. Gilloise in terms of average possession (55% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
St. Truiden
For 4.7 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 8.8 · Total 18.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Union St. Gilloise
For 4.7 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 11.7 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
St. Truiden
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.5
10.4
3.7
3.7
3.7
21.2
20.8
21.6
vs Stronger (18)
10.7
10.7
10.7
3.4
3.2
3.6
19.6
19.4
19.7
vs Similar (32)
9.5
8.7
10.2
3.9
3.9
3.8
22.2
21.7
22.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
57%
68%
48%
48%
48%
54%
52%
56%
% under line
38%
43%
32%
52%
52%
52%
46%
48%
44%
This opponent (Union St. Gilloise) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Union St. Gilloise
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.3
9.7
4.1
3.8
4.4
21.8
21.9
21.8
vs Stronger (1)
5.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
5.0
17.0
-
17.0
vs Similar (21)
8.4
7.2
10.2
4.8
4.4
5.4
21.9
22.1
21.6
vs Weaker (28)
9.5
9.3
9.7
3.6
3.3
3.9
22.0
21.8
22.3
% over line
48%
46%
50%
60%
52%
70%
53%
57%
50%
% under line
52%
54%
50%
40%
48%
30%
47%
43%
50%
This opponent (St. Truiden) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
OH Leuven
11.1
Cercle Brugge
11.0
Charleroi
10.6
KVC Westerlo
10.6
Club Brugge KV
10.4
Anderlecht
10.3
Kortrijk
10.1
Gent
10.1
KV Mechelen
10.0
Standard Liege
10.0
Zulte Waregem
9.8
St. Truiden
9.8
Lommel United
9.8
SK Beveren
9.7
Genk
9.6
Antwerp
9.2
Union St. Gilloise
9.1
RAAL La Louvière
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Anderlecht
5.2
Union St. Gilloise
4.9
OH Leuven
4.8
SK Beveren
4.4
Standard Liege
4.3
Kortrijk
4.3
Lommel United
4.1
Antwerp
4.1
KV Mechelen
4.1
St. Truiden
4.0
Cercle Brugge
4.0
KVC Westerlo
4.0
Charleroi
3.9
RAAL La Louvière
3.9
Genk
3.7
Zulte Waregem
3.7
Club Brugge KV
3.6
Gent
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
OH Leuven
25.0
Anderlecht
24.9
RAAL La Louvière
24.6
Antwerp
24.1
Lommel United
23.9
Kortrijk
23.4
SK Beveren
23.3
KVC Westerlo
23.1
Zulte Waregem
23.1
Cercle Brugge
22.9
Genk
22.2
Standard Liege
22.1
Charleroi
21.9
KV Mechelen
21.9
Union St. Gilloise
21.7
St. Truiden
21.3
Gent
21.2
Club Brugge KV
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
51.9%
@ 1.98+4.9%
Under 9.5
48.1%
@ 1.75-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.05
Pinnacle
1.96
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
1xBet
1.81
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Unibet
1.75
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
61.1%
@ 1.44-2.8%
Under 3.5
38.9%
@ 2.56+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.41
Superbet
1.37
Under
Superbet
2.67
Unibet
2.65
Betano
2.35
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
43.2%
@ 1.84-4.2%
Under 21.5
56.8%
@ 1.66+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.66
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
St. Truiden or Draw✗ Miss
54.1%
Avg Implied 52.5% · @ 1.78
Edge
+1.6%
23%
24%
52%
covers St. Truiden + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.81
SBO
1.81
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
St. Truiden or Union St. Gilloise✓ Hit
71.7%
Avg Implied 74.3% · @ 1.26
Edge
-2.6%
23%
24%
52%
covers St. Truiden + Union St. Gilloise
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Unibet
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Draw or Union St. Gilloise✓ Hit
74.2%
Avg Implied 73.2% · @ 1.28
Edge
+1.0%
23%
24%
52%
covers Draw + Union St. Gilloise
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
St. Truiden over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
65.6%
@ 1.32-4.9%
Under
34.4%
@ 3.15+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.34
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.15
10Bet
3.10
St. Truiden over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.9%
@ 2.59-7.2%
Under
71.1%
@ 1.46+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.73
Betfair
2.63
Marathonbet
2.61
1xBet
2.61
Unibet
2.60
Under
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Superbet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
St. Truiden over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 6.07-6.0%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.09+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.25
1xBet
6.15
Unibet
6.10
Marathonbet
6.10
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
10Bet
1.09
St. Truiden over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 15.08-4.0%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Union St. Gilloise over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.6%
@ 1.15-3.3%
Under
22.4%
@ 4.87+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.80
1xBet
4.80
BetVictor
4.80
Union St. Gilloise over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
44.1%
@ 1.80-7.9%
Under
55.9%
@ 1.95+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Under
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.95
Union St. Gilloise over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
19.0%
@ 3.51-7.5%
Under
81.0%
@ 1.27+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.79
BetVictor
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Unibet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Under
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Union St. Gilloise over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.5%
@ 7.38-6.1%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.06+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.60
Marathonbet
7.10
Unibet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.06
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to St. Truiden, so a minus line means St. Truiden give that many goals of a start and Union St. Gilloise receive them. At -1, St. Truiden must win by two or more to land; a one-goal St. Truiden win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (St. Truiden)Actual: Union St. Gilloise
St. Truiden -2
3.0%
@ 18.25-2.0%
Draw -2
7.2%
@ 10.03-1.9%
Union St. Gilloise +2
89.8%
@ 1.07+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
21.00
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Unibet
16.00
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
9.60
Unibet
9.50
Away
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Handicap -1 (St. Truiden)Actual: Union St. Gilloise
St. Truiden -1
10.2%
@ 7.45-1.8%
Draw -1
15.5%
@ 5.16-1.8%
Union St. Gilloise +1
74.2%
@ 1.27+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.75
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.20
Unibet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Away
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Handicap +1 (St. Truiden)Actual: Union St. Gilloise
St. Truiden +1
54.1%
@ 1.77+3.5%
Draw +1
22.3%
@ 3.80-1.3%
Union St. Gilloise -1
23.6%
@ 3.49-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Unibet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Betfair
1.73
Draw
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Unibet
3.65
Away
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Unibet
3.35
Handicap +2 (St. Truiden)Actual: Union St. Gilloise
St. Truiden +2
76.4%
@ 1.26+5.5%
Draw +2
14.2%
@ 5.54-1.9%
Union St. Gilloise -2
9.3%
@ 6.93-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Draw
Superbet
5.70
Marathonbet
5.55
10Bet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.50
Away
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.10
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
6.75
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
St. Truiden
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.71
0.50
0.81
0.75
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
0.67
0.50
0.67
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (18)
1.11
0.61
0.88
0.38
1.30
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Union St. Gilloise) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Union St. Gilloise
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
0.94
0.29
0.46
0.46
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.54
1.22
0.33
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.56
0.25
0.62
0.25
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
73% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (St. Truiden) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.6%
@ 1.31+1.4%
Under 0.5
27.4%
@ 3.23-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.34
BetVictor
1.34
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Under
William Hil
3.50
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Unibet
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.2%
@ 2.38-5.1%
Under 1.5
65.8%
@ 1.54+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.50
Betano
2.47
Unibet
2.43
Superbet
2.42
Pinnacle
2.41
Under
Pinnacle
1.58
William Hil
1.57
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.8%
@ 5.42-4.4%
Under 2.5
87.2%
@ 1.12+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.60
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.50
Betano
5.40
Under
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
St. Truiden over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
39.0%
@ 2.16-4.1%
Under
61.0%
@ 1.63+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.17
Pinnacle
2.17
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
10Bet
2.15
Under
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.63
1xBet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
St. Truiden over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.8%
@ 6.93-4.6%
Under
91.2%
@ 1.07+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.20
1xBet
7.10
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.90
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
St. Truiden over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 20.83-3.7%
Under
99.1%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Union St. Gilloise over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
52.8%
@ 1.73-1.0%
Under
47.2%
@ 2.02+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.75
Unibet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Under
Pinnacle
2.10
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Superbet
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Union St. Gilloise over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.3%
@ 4.55-4.1%
Under
83.7%
@ 1.16+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.65
Betano
4.60
1xBet
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
Union St. Gilloise over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 11.75-4.0%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.02+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
St. Truiden
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.70
0.86
0.57
1.06
0.81
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
0.83
1.17
0.83
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (18)
1.11
0.61
0.62
0.38
1.50
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Union St. Gilloise) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Union St. Gilloise
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
1.00
0.29
0.77
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.62
0.78
0.44
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.06
0.25
1.25
0.12
0.88
0.38
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (St. Truiden) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.6%
@ 1.18-1.2%
Under 0.5
22.4%
@ 4.38+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Under
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Betano
4.40
Superbet
4.35
Marathonbet
4.35
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
45.5%
@ 1.86-4.4%
Under 1.5
54.5%
@ 1.86+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.88
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
Unibet
1.85
Under
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Unibet
1.86
William Hil
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.0%
@ 3.66-7.3%
Under 2.5
82.0%
@ 1.24+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.65
Superbet
3.65
Betano
3.60
Under
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
St. Truiden over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
45.3%
@ 1.83-5.5%
Under
54.7%
@ 1.88+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.83
Superbet
1.83
10Bet
1.80
Under
Betano
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.85
St. Truiden over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.1%
@ 5.07-4.1%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.13+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.25
1xBet
5.20
Superbet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.80
Under
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
St. Truiden over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 13.83-4.0%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.02+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Union St. Gilloise over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
58.8%
@ 1.51-2.6%
Under
41.2%
@ 2.40+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.52
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Under
1xBet
2.42
Betano
2.42
10Bet
2.40
Superbet
2.37
Union St. Gilloise over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
23.3%
@ 3.40-3.9%
Under
76.7%
@ 1.27+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Betano
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.30
Under
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Union St. Gilloise over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 8.78-5.2%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.04+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.20
Superbet
9.00
10Bet
9.00
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.4%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
BetVictor
1.03
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.6%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.5%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.06
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.2%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
90.7%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
10Bet
1.09
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
89.8%
1.07
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.3%
1.16
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.17
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.2%
1.12
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.9%
1.13
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
83.7%
1.16
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.8%
1.19
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Unibet
1.20
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.0%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
81.0%
1.27
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
+7.5%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
79.4%
1.25
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.6%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
-3.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.6%
1.18
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.17
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
76.7%
1.27
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
76.4%
1.26
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
+5.5%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
74.7%
1.42
Superbet
1.45
Unibet
1.43
Betano
1.37
-
-
+9.5%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
74.2%
1.28
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
10Bet
1.28
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
74.2%
1.27
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.6%
1.31
Pinnacle
1.34
BetVictor
1.34
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
72.5%
1.34
1xBet
1.34
-
-
-
-
+7.3%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
71.8%
1.26
Unibet
1.29
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Betano
1.22
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.7%
1.26
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Unibet
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Betano
1.28
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
71.1%
1.46
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Superbet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
+7.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
St. Truiden
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
K. Matsuzawa33%
Ryan Merlen25%
I. Sebaoui25%
N. Ishiwatari25%
A. Sissako0%
J. Pupe0%
V. Musliu0%
L. Kokubo0%
T. Hata0%
R. Vanwesemael0%
Oumar Diouf0%
S. Shinkawa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
N. Ishiwatari75%
J. Pupe33%
A. Sissako25%
L. Kokubo25%
Ryan Merlen25%
R. Vanwesemael25%
V. Musliu0%
T. Hata0%
I. Sebaoui0%
K. Matsuzawa0%
Oumar Diouf0%
S. Shinkawa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
I. Sebaoui50%
Ryan Merlen25%
N. Ishiwatari25%
R. Vanwesemael25%
A. Sissako0%
J. Pupe0%
V. Musliu0%
L. Kokubo0%
T. Hata0%
K. Matsuzawa0%
Oumar Diouf0%
S. Shinkawa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
I. Sebaoui50%
Ryan Merlen25%
N. Ishiwatari25%
A. Sissako0%
J. Pupe0%
V. Musliu0%
L. Kokubo0%
T. Hata0%
R. Vanwesemael0%
K. Matsuzawa0%
Oumar Diouf0%
S. Shinkawa0%
Union St. Gilloise
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
R. Florucz50%
Guilherme Smith50%
R. Mofokeng50%
D. Olaru33%
M. Biondic33%
K. Mac Allister25%
L. Patris25%
B. Zeneli25%
A. Zorgane0%
R. Schoofs0%
K. Van de Perre0%
Ondrej Kricfalusi0%
M. Sylla0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
K. Mac Allister100%
K. Van de Perre50%
R. Florucz25%
Guilherme Smith25%
M. Sylla25%
A. Zorgane0%
R. Schoofs0%
D. Olaru0%
L. Patris0%
M. Biondic0%
B. Zeneli0%
Ondrej Kricfalusi0%
R. Mofokeng0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
B. Zeneli75%
R. Schoofs50%
D. Olaru33%
M. Biondic33%
L. Patris25%
Guilherme Smith25%
A. Zorgane0%
K. Mac Allister0%
R. Florucz0%
K. Van de Perre0%
Ondrej Kricfalusi0%
R. Mofokeng0%
M. Sylla0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
B. Zeneli50%
D. Olaru33%
Guilherme Smith25%
A. Zorgane0%
K. Mac Allister0%
R. Schoofs0%
R. Florucz0%
L. Patris0%
M. Biondic0%
K. Van de Perre0%
Ondrej Kricfalusi0%
R. Mofokeng0%
M. Sylla0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (27)
€196m
GEN (30)
€113m
USG (26)
€98m
AND (32)
€91m
GEN (32)
€58m
SL (27)
€54m
KM (31)
€45m
CB (26)
€40m
KW (26)
€38m
ANT (24)
€33m
CHA (21)
€31m
OL (27)
€30m
ST (23)
€30m
LU (25)
€26m
RLL (30)
€23m
ZW (27)
€20m
KOR (24)
€18m
SB (24)
€12m
St. Truiden's squad is €68m less valuable than Union St. Gilloise's (€30m vs €98m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (10)
€92m
AND (12)
€50m
GEN (10)
€39m
USG (10)
€32m
CB (9)
€18m
GEN (11)
€17m
KW (11)
€16m
SL (9)
€14m
KM (9)
€13m
CHA (8)
€13m
ST (10)
€11m
ANT (10)
€9m
KOR (9)
€9m
ZW (10)
€8m
LU (10)
€8m
OL (8)
€7m
RLL (10)
€6m
SB (9)
€4m
St. Truiden's attack is €21m less valuable than Union St. Gilloise's (€11m vs €32m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
USG (7)
€38m
CBK (5)
€23m
GEN (8)
€22m
GEN (5)
€19m
AND (5)
€18m
LU (5)
€15m
ANT (4)
€10m
KW (5)
€9m
SL (7)
€8m
KM (7)
€7m
OL (6)
€6m
RLL (7)
€6m
CB (6)
€5m
ST (4)
€4m
CHA (5)
€4m
KOR (5)
€4m
ZW (4)
€4m
SB (5)
€3m
St. Truiden's midfield is €34m less valuable than Union St. Gilloise's (€4m vs €38m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (12)
€81m
GEN (15)
€55m
SL (11)
€31m
USG (9)
€28m
KM (15)
€25m
AND (15)
€24m
GEN (13)
€19m
OL (13)
€17m
CB (11)
€17m
ANT (10)
€14m
CHA (8)
€14m
ST (9)
€14m
KW (10)
€12m
RLL (13)
€11m
ZW (13)
€9m
KOR (10)
€5m
SB (10)
€5m
LU (10)
€4m
St. Truiden's defence is €13m less valuable than Union St. Gilloise's (€14m vs €28m).
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Jupiler Pro League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Charleroi
Gent
Club Brugge KV
Zulte Waregem
Standard Liege
Genk
Lommel United
Antwerp
Anderlecht
SK Beveren
Cercle Brugge
KV Mechelen
RAAL La Louvière
KVC Westerlo
OH Leuven
Kortrijk