Stal Rzeszów’s recent 2-game winning streak and a 3-0 triumph over Podbeskidzie set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, while Odra Opole’s return from a win against Wisła Kraków suggests they will look to keep the pressure on. The model favours a home win, with a 58% probability, a 21% chance of a draw and a 21% chance of an away victory. The expected total of 3.8 goals points to plenty of action, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Stal, with a 9.1% probability. Stal averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Odra averages 1.0 scored and 2.5 conceded on the road. Suggested picks include an 89.7% probability of over 1.5 goals and a 72.5% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Results analysis
The match saw Stal Rzeszów extend a two-game winning streak, while Odra Opole returned from a win, setting the stage for a competitive fixture. The final score was 4-2, confirming a home win. The model had picked a home win with a 58% probability, and it was correct. The suggested selections Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 came in, with probabilities of 89.7% and 72.5% respectively, both hitting. The most likely scoreline was 2-1 at 9.1%, but the game produced a higher tally, yet the model’s overall predictions were largely accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stal Rzeszów win✓ Hit
57.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole win✗ Miss
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stal Rzeszów
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.46
2.43
1.57
1.00
1.33
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.45
1.64
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
31% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Odra Opole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Odra Opole
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.92
1.25
1.75
1.20
2.20
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
1.44
2.22
1.80
2.00
1.00
2.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
8% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.7%
Under 1.5
10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
72.5%
Under 2.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
51.8%
Under 3.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.1%
No
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.1%
1-1
8.5%
3-1
7.1%
2-0
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
1-2
5.4%
3-0
5.1%
3-2
5.0%
Stal Rzeszów goals ↓
Odra Opole goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.1%
2.5%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
1
4.7%
8.5%
5.4%
2.5%
0.9%
2
6.5%
9.1%
6.4%
3.0%
1.0%
3
5.1%
7.1%
5.0%
2.3%
0.8%
4
3.0%
4.2%
2.9%
1.4%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stal Rzeszów goals (down), columns = Odra Opole goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
ŁKS Łódź
1.94
Ruch Chorzów
1.82
Nieciecza
1.81
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.72
Wisla Krakow
1.71
Stal Rzeszów
1.46
Podbeskidzie
1.44
Arka Gdynia
1.41
Chrobry Głogów
1.35
GKS Katowice
1.29
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.24
Górnik Łęczna
1.18
Tychy 71
1.15
Resovia Rzeszów
1.12
Odra Opole
1.09
SKRA Częstochowa
0.91
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
0.79
Chojniczanka Chojnice
0.79
Stal Rzeszów is 0.37 points better than Odra Opole in terms of average points per game (1.46 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Wisla Krakow
1.77
ŁKS Łódź
1.71
Podbeskidzie
1.65
Arka Gdynia
1.65
Nieciecza
1.64
Stal Rzeszów
1.63
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.53
Ruch Chorzów
1.41
Tychy 71
1.35
Chrobry Głogów
1.29
Resovia Rzeszów
1.26
GKS Katowice
1.21
Górnik Łęczna
1.18
Odra Opole
1.15
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.03
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.97
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
0.82
SKRA Częstochowa
0.56
Stal Rzeszów is 0.48 goals better than Odra Opole in terms of goals scored per game (1.63 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ruch Chorzów
0.97
ŁKS Łódź
1.06
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.08
Nieciecza
1.08
GKS Katowice
1.15
Wisla Krakow
1.20
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.26
Stal Rzeszów
1.31
Górnik Łęczna
1.32
Arka Gdynia
1.32
Podbeskidzie
1.38
Odra Opole
1.41
SKRA Częstochowa
1.47
Resovia Rzeszów
1.50
Tychy 71
1.53
Chrobry Głogów
1.56
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.59
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.68
Stal Rzeszów is 0.10 goals better than Odra Opole in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stal Rzeszów
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.00
1.14
1.00
0.83
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.82
1.09
0.80
1.20
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
31% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Odra Opole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Odra Opole
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.54
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (9)
0.78
1.33
0.80
1.40
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stal Rzeszów
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.46
1.29
0.57
0.17
0.33
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.55
1.20
0.80
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
62% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Odra Opole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Odra Opole
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.69
0.92
0.75
0.75
0.60
1.20
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.89
1.00
0.60
0.25
1.25
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (24)
€13m
GK (26)
€13m
AG (23)
€5m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
POD (5)
€1m
Stal Rzeszów's squad is €1m less valuable than Odra Opole's (€3m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (8)
€6m
GK (7)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
POD (1)
€0m
Stal Rzeszów and Odra Opole have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GK (10)
€6m
WK (4)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
Stal Rzeszów's midfield is €1m less valuable than Odra Opole's (€0m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (12)
€5m
GK (9)
€4m
AG (9)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
POD (2)
€0m
Stal Rzeszów and Odra Opole have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Poland: I Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →