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Stal Rzeszów vs Podbeskidzie Result & Analysis

Date: 27/08/2022
Time: 13:00
Final 5-0
Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
Vs
26%
26%
48%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Podbeskidzie
Podbeskidzie
Poland: I Liga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Stal Rzeszów’s recent 2-game winning streak against Podbeskidzie suggests a competitive opening, yet the model favours an away win with a 48% probability, while home and draw each sit at 26%. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high-scoring encounter, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.4% chance. Podbeskidzie, playing away against a stronger opponent, averages 2.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, indicating a potent attack but a vulnerable defence. Stal Rzeszów’s home form is solid, but the model’s selection list includes only one pick: Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.4% probability. The probabilities for the match outcome are 26% home win, 26% draw, and 48% away win. No other selections are presented.

Results analysis

Stal Rzeszów’s 5-0 triumph over Podbeskidzie stunned the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win, which had a 48% probability. The model was wrong, as the actual result was a home win. Stal’s recent form, a 2-game winning run, set the stage for a shock. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.4% probability, hit as the match produced five goals. The most likely scoreline of 1-1, 24% likely, was not reached. The final score of 5-0 confirms the home side’s dominance, leaving the model’s predictions largely off the mark.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Stal Rzeszów win✓ Hit
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie win✗ Miss
48.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-333D12L10W23L11D10W12LH·CHR17/07A·PUS23/07H·GÓR31/07H·RUC08/08A·CHO11/08H·ŁKS14/08A·NIE20/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.571.751.501.001.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)1.431.571.751.501.001.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %29% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Podbeskidzie) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PodbeskidziePodbeskidzie

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L21W10W41W01L10W01LH·ARK17/07A·ODR25/07H·GKS31/07A·TYC07/08H·SKR10/08A·CHR14/08H·PUS20/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.140.710.250.752.330.67
vs Stronger (7)1.140.710.250.752.330.67
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %29% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.4%
Under 1.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.0%
Under 2.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.6%
Under 3.5
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.9%
No
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
1-2
9.5%
0-1
8.4%
0-2
8.0%
0-0
6.7%
2-1
6.7%
2-2
5.7%
1-0
5.5%
Stal Rzeszów goals ↓
Podbeskidzie goals →
01234
06.7%8.4%8.0%4.5%1.9%
15.5%12%9.5%5.4%2.3%
24.0%6.7%5.7%3.2%1.4%
31.6%2.7%2.2%1.3%0.5%
40.5%0.8%0.7%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stal Rzeszów goals (down), columns = Podbeskidzie goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
ŁKS Łódź
1.94
Ruch Chorzów
1.82
Nieciecza
1.81
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.72
Wisla Krakow
1.71
Stal Rzeszów
1.46
Podbeskidzie
1.44
Arka Gdynia
1.41
Chrobry Głogów
1.35
GKS Katowice
1.29
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.24
Górnik Łęczna
1.18
Tychy 71
1.15
Resovia Rzeszów
1.12
Odra Opole
1.09
SKRA Częstochowa
0.91
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
0.79
Chojniczanka Chojnice
0.79
Stal Rzeszów is 0.02 points better than Podbeskidzie in terms of average points per game (1.46 vs 1.44).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Wisla Krakow
1.77
ŁKS Łódź
1.71
Podbeskidzie
1.65
Arka Gdynia
1.65
Nieciecza
1.64
Stal Rzeszów
1.63
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.53
Ruch Chorzów
1.41
Tychy 71
1.35
Chrobry Głogów
1.29
Resovia Rzeszów
1.26
GKS Katowice
1.21
Górnik Łęczna
1.18
Odra Opole
1.15
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.03
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.97
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
0.82
SKRA Częstochowa
0.56
Stal Rzeszów is 0.02 goals worse than Podbeskidzie in terms of goals scored per game (1.63 vs 1.65).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Ruch Chorzów
0.97
ŁKS Łódź
1.06
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.08
Nieciecza
1.08
GKS Katowice
1.15
Wisla Krakow
1.20
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.26
Stal Rzeszów
1.31
Górnik Łęczna
1.32
Arka Gdynia
1.32
Podbeskidzie
1.38
Odra Opole
1.41
SKRA Częstochowa
1.47
Resovia Rzeszów
1.50
Tychy 71
1.53
Chrobry Głogów
1.56
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.59
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.68
Stal Rzeszów is 0.07 goals better than Podbeskidzie in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.38).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D11D10W12L11D00D11DH·CHR17/07A·PUS23/07H·GÓR31/07H·RUC08/08A·CHO11/08H·ŁKS14/08A·NIE20/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.001.001.001.001.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %29% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Podbeskidzie) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PodbeskidziePodbeskidzie

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D00D11D00D00D00DH·ARK17/07A·ODR25/07H·GKS31/07A·TYC07/08H·SKR10/08A·CHR14/08H·PUS20/08
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.140.140.000.000.330.33
vs Stronger (7)0.140.140.000.000.330.33
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %86% (+61pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D01L00D11D00D10W01LH·CHR17/07A·PUS23/07H·GÓR31/07H·RUC08/08A·CHO11/08H·ŁKS14/08A·NIE20/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.570.750.500.000.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.430.570.750.500.000.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Podbeskidzie) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PodbeskidziePodbeskidzie

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L21W10W30W01L10W01LH·ARK17/07A·ODR25/07H·GKS31/07A·TYC07/08H·SKR10/08A·CHR14/08H·PUS20/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.570.250.752.000.33
vs Stronger (7)1.000.570.250.752.000.33
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (24)
€13m
GK (26)
€13m
AG (23)
€5m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
POD (5)
€1m
Stal Rzeszów's squad is €2m more valuable than Podbeskidzie's (€3m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (8)
€6m
GK (7)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
POD (1)
€0m
Stal Rzeszów's attack is €1m more valuable than Podbeskidzie's (€1m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GK (10)
€6m
WK (4)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
Stal Rzeszów and Podbeskidzie have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (12)
€5m
GK (9)
€4m
AG (9)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
POD (2)
€0m
Stal Rzeszów's defence is €1m more valuable than Podbeskidzie's (€1m vs €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
SR wins
0
Draws
0
POD wins

Head-to-head

Stal Rzeszów vs Podbeskidzie · H/A from SR
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/08/22ANieciecza Vs SR2-1
14/08/22HSR Vs ŁKS Łódź1-0
11/08/22AChojniczanka Chojnice Vs SR1-1
08/08/22HSR Vs Ruch Chorzów2-3
31/07/22HSR Vs Górnik Łęczna1-0
23/07/22APuszcza Niepołomice Vs SR2-1
17/07/22HSR Vs Chrobry Głogów3-3

PodbeskidziePodbeskidzie

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/08/22HPOD Vs Puszcza Niepołomice0-1
14/08/22AChrobry Głogów Vs POD0-1
10/08/22HPOD Vs SKRA Częstochowa0-1
07/08/22ATychy 71 Vs POD1-4
31/07/22HPOD Vs GKS Katowice1-0
25/07/22AOdra Opole Vs POD1-2
17/07/22HPOD Vs Arka Gdynia0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDWL1.14
HomeDWLW1.75
AwayLDL0.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %29%50%0%
AVG goals3.003.252.67
Over 1.5 %71%50%100%
Over 2.5 %57%50%67%
Over 3.5 %29%50%0%
Scored1.431.751.00
Conceded1.571.501.67
BTTS71%50%100%
Clean Sheet29%50%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Podbeskidzie
Podbeskidzie
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWL1.71
HomeLWLL0.75
AwayWWW3.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %57%25%100%
AVG goals1.861.003.00
Over 1.5 %29%0%67%
Over 2.5 %29%0%67%
Over 3.5 %14%0%33%
Scored1.140.252.33
Conceded0.710.750.67
BTTS29%0%67%
Clean Sheet29%25%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ŁKS ŁódźŁKS Łódź3466
56%
1.9
5836+22
2.8
74%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.71.1
-
2NiecieczaNieciecza3665
47%
1.8
5939+20
2.7
86%
64%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2211.61.1
-
3Puszcza NiepołomicePuszcza Niepołomice3662
47%
1.7
5539+16
2.6
69%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.51.1
-
4Ruch ChorzówRuch Chorzów3462
50%
1.8
4833+15
2.4
76%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.41.0
-
5Wisla KrakowWisla Krakow3560
51%
1.7
6242+20
3.0
86%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
6251.81.2
-
6Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów3551
40%
1.5
5746+11
2.9
71%
57%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.61.3
-
7PodbeskidziePodbeskidzie3449
35%
1.4
5647+9
3.0
68%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.4
-
8Arka GdyniaArka Gdynia3448
38%
1.4
5645+11
3.0
82%
65%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.3
-
9Chrobry GłogówChrobry Głogów3446
35%
1.4
4453-9
2.9
68%
47%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.31.6
-
10GKS KatowiceGKS Katowice3444
29%
1.3
4139+2
2.4
65%
38%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
3641.21.1
-
11Zaglebie SosnowiecZaglebie Sosnowiec3442
29%
1.2
3343-10
2.2
65%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
12Górnik ŁęcznaGórnik Łęczna3440
26%
1.2
4045-5
2.5
71%
47%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
13Tychy 71Tychy 713439
29%
1.1
4652-6
2.9
74%
56%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
14Resovia RzeszówResovia Rzeszów3438
26%
1.1
4351-8
2.8
82%
53%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
-
15Odra OpoleOdra Opole3437
29%
1.1
3948-9
2.6
76%
44%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.11.4
-
16SKRA CzęstochowaSKRA Częstochowa3431
26%
0.9
1950-31
2.0
56%
41%
6%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.5
-
17Chojniczanka ChojniceChojniczanka Chojnice3427
15%
0.8
3557-22
2.7
82%
53%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
18Sandecja Nowy SączSandecja Nowy Sącz3427
15%
0.8
2854-26
2.4
71%
41%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.6
-
Poland: I Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →

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