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Stenhousemuir vs Alloa Result & Analysis

Date: 25/04/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 1-0
Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
Vs
48%
28%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
A
Alloa
Scotland: League One
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Odd / Even7 Home & Away Over/Under8 Handicap9 Top picks for this game10 Squad value11 Games History12 Overall Statistics13 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Stenhousemuir a 48% win probability against Alloa in the Scotland: League One on 2026-04-25, with 28% for the draw and 24% for Alloa. The model estimates around 2.6 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (26%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.3%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 21.5 fouls (75%), Over 1.5 (74%), Under 3.5 (74%).

Results analysis

Stenhousemuir finished 1-0 against Alloa (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 48% home win, 28% draw and 24% away win. Picks that landed: Over 21.5 fouls (75%), Under 3.5 (74%). Missed: Over 1.5 (74%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Stenhousemuir win✓ Hit
48.1%
Avg Implied 46.5% · @ 1.93
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied 27.4% · @ 3.28
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Alloa win✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.43
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W10W11D10W20W22D30W11D02LA·INV21/02H·COV28/02A·HAM03/03A·QUE07/03A·PET14/03H·KEL21/03A·EAS28/03H·HAM04/04H·INV11/04A·COV18/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.802.000.710.940.88
vs Stronger (30)1.430.802.000.710.940.88
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

A
Alloa

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-530W20W21W13L45L11D12L10W01L20WH·HAM21/02A·EAS28/02H·KEL07/03A·PET10/03A·MON14/03H·INV21/03H·PET28/03A·COV04/04A·HAM11/04H·EAS18/04
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.031.620.811.361.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.681.042.000.921.381.15
vs Weaker (5)0.601.000.500.501.003.00
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.6%
@ 1.87-1.3%
Under 2.5
52.4%
@ 1.79+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.9%
No
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0 ✓
10.5%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.1%
0-0
8.8%
0-1
6.6%
1-2
6.2%
3-1
4.8%
Stenhousemuir goals ↓
Alloa goals →
01234
08.8%6.6%4.0%1.4%0.4%
111%13%6.2%2.1%0.6%
29.1%9.4%4.8%1.7%0.4%
34.7%4.8%2.5%0.9%0.2%
41.8%1.9%1.0%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stenhousemuir goals (down), columns = Alloa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Inverness CT
2.06
Stenhousemuir
1.86
Hamilton
1.53
Queen of Sth
1.50
Alloa
1.47
Clyde
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Kelty Hearts
0.81
Spartans
0.50
Forfar
0.00
Stenhousemuir is 0.39 points better than Alloa in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.47).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Clyde
1.75
Inverness CT
1.67
Queen of Sth
1.61
Hamilton
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.39
Alloa
1.39
Montrose
1.33
Peterhead
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
Forfar
1.00
East Fife
0.94
Kelty Hearts
0.92
Spartans
0.50
Stenhousemuir and Alloa are level in goals scored per game (both 1.39).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Inverness CT
0.67
Stenhousemuir
0.75
Alloa
1.06
Hamilton
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.22
Queen of Sth
1.31
Spartans
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Kelty Hearts
1.72
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Forfar
2.50
Stenhousemuir is 0.31 goals better than Alloa in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 1.06).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir

For 5.4 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.5

🚩 Corners

140345444104741183845934798141121112147A·COVH·INVH·HAMA·EASH·KELA·PETA·QUEA·HAMH·COVA·INV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.4

🟨 Cards

80512551642313422356750764748A·COVH·INVH·HAMA·EASH·KELA·PETA·QUEA·HAMH·COVA·INV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 14.9 · Total 28.4

⚠️ Fouls

380111713151118101120181718191013151111101628282921383529282226A·COVH·INVH·HAMA·EASH·KELA·PETA·QUEA·HAMH·COVA·INV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

A
Alloa

For 3.9 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.2

🚩 Corners

150134388646248745652647814106159118H·EASA·HAMA·COVH·PETH·INVA·MONA·PETH·KELA·EASH·HAM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.1

🟨 Cards

60222112333124211342114336463462H·EASA·HAMA·COVH·PETH·INVA·MONA·PETH·KELA·EASH·HAM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 11.5 · Total 23.2

⚠️ Fouls

29011712810151712121011141310141191281618202529222523252124H·EASA·HAMA·COVH·PETH·INVA·MONA·PETH·KELA·EASH·HAM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.68.98.44.84.84.725.525.625.3
vs Stronger (47)8.78.88.54.74.74.725.625.825.4
vs Similar (1)7.0-7.03.0-3.025.0-25.0
vs Weaker (2)8.010.06.07.58.07.022.020.024.0
% over line40%38%42%72%72%72%71%67%75%
% under line60%62%58%28%28%28%29%33%25%
This opponent (Alloa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

A
Alloa

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.89.610.04.44.44.422.522.422.6
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (36)9.89.79.94.64.34.923.022.623.4
vs Weaker (14)9.79.110.33.94.63.321.322.020.6
% over line48%48%48%58%56%60%56%56%56%
% under line52%52%52%42%44%40%44%44%44%
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Hamilton
10.5
Alloa
9.8
East Fife
9.7
Clyde
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Spartans
9.1
Inverness CT
9.1
Kelty Hearts
9.0
Forfar
8.9
Peterhead
8.8
Queen of Sth
8.6
Montrose
8.6
Stenhousemuir
8.5

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Peterhead
5.1
Queen of Sth
4.9
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Forfar
4.5
Alloa
4.4
Clyde
4.4
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Spartans
4.2
East Fife
3.7
Montrose
3.7
Inverness CT
3.6
Hamilton
3.4
Cove Rangers
3.2

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
Stenhousemuir
25.1
Forfar
24.3
Queen of Sth
23.6
East Fife
23.0
Alloa
22.5
Clyde
22.3
Montrose
22.0
Kelty Hearts
22.0
Inverness CT
21.6
Hamilton
21.1
Cove Rangers
20.8
Spartans
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
45.6%
Under 9.5
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
69.5%
Under 3.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
75.4%
Under 21.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 21.5 fouls75.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.574.1%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.574.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
QOS (2)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
HAM (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
ALL (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Stenhousemuir and Alloa have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
MON (1)
€0m
ALL (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
HAM (0)
€0m
QOS (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Stenhousemuir and Alloa have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (1)
€0m
HAM (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
QOS (0)
€0m
ALL (0)
€0m
MON (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
Stenhousemuir and Alloa have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QOS (2)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
HAM (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
ALL (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Stenhousemuir vs Alloa · H/A from STE
DateH/AGameScore
27/12/25AAlloa Vs STE0-0
25/10/25AAlloa Vs STE0-0
02/08/25HSTE Vs Alloa1-2
05/04/25HSTE Vs Alloa1-4
28/12/24AAlloa Vs STE1-3
19/10/24HSTE Vs Alloa0-1
17/08/24AAlloa Vs STE1-0
11/03/17AAlloa Vs STE2-1

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26ACove Rangers Vs STE2-0
11/04/26HSTE Vs Inverness CT1-1
04/04/26HSTE Vs Hamilton3-0
28/03/26AEast Fife Vs STE2-2
21/03/26HSTE Vs Kelty Hearts2-0
14/03/26APeterhead Vs STE0-1
07/03/26AQueen of Sth Vs STE1-1
03/03/26AHamilton Vs STE0-1
28/02/26HSTE Vs Cove Rangers1-0
21/02/26AInverness CT Vs STE1-1

A
Alloa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26HALL Vs East Fife2-0
11/04/26AHamilton Vs ALL1-0
04/04/26ACove Rangers Vs ALL0-1
28/03/26HALL Vs Peterhead1-2
21/03/26HALL Vs Inverness CT1-1
14/03/26AMontrose Vs ALL5-4
10/03/26APeterhead Vs ALL3-1
07/03/26HALL Vs Kelty Hearts2-1
28/02/26AEast Fife Vs ALL0-2
21/02/26HALL Vs Hamilton3-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
Scotland: League One
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWDL1.64
HomeDWWWD1.80
AwayWDWDL1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%48%40%
AVG goals2.422.642.20
Over 1.5 %72%76%68%
Over 2.5 %44%52%36%
Over 3.5 %28%36%20%
Scored1.361.641.08
Conceded1.061.001.12
BTTS46%56%36%
Clean Sheet42%44%40%
Corners8.628.888.38
Cards4.985.044.92
A
Alloa
Scotland: League One
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLW1.52
HomeWWDLW1.72
AwayWLLWL1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%48%36%
AVG goals2.722.562.88
Over 1.5 %76%80%72%
Over 2.5 %50%52%48%
Over 3.5 %26%20%32%
Scored1.561.601.52
Conceded1.160.961.36
BTTS58%56%60%
Clean Sheet30%36%24%
Corners9.789.5610.00
Cards4.404.364.44

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Inverness CTInverness CT3674
58%
2.1
6024+36
2.3
72%
39%
25%
9.1
39%
3.5
47%
22.2
53%
0
0001.70.7
-
2StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3667
50%
1.9
5027+23
2.1
64%
33%
22%
8.6
39%
5.2
81%
27.0
81%
0
0001.40.8
-
3
H
Hamilton		3655
44%
1.5
5442+12
2.7
75%
58%
33%
9.7
44%
3.2
42%
20.4
39%
0
0001.51.2
-
4
QO
Queen of Sth		3654
39%
1.5
5847+11
2.9
92%
53%
33%
8.9
33%
5.2
75%
24.3
67%
0
0001.61.3
-
5
A
Alloa		3653
42%
1.5
5038+12
2.4
67%
44%
22%
9.4
42%
4.5
61%
23.4
64%
0
0001.41.1
-
6PeterheadPeterhead3643
33%
1.2
4864-16
3.1
92%
67%
42%
9.5
44%
5.0
78%
27.9
86%
0
0001.31.8
-
7MontroseMontrose3642
31%
1.2
4867-19
3.2
89%
61%
39%
8.6
31%
3.7
61%
23.7
69%
0
0001.31.9
-
8Cove RangersCove Rangers3638
25%
1.1
4144-3
2.4
69%
39%
22%
9.4
44%
3.5
47%
22.3
53%
0
0001.11.2
-
9East FifeEast Fife3636
25%
1.0
3461-27
2.6
78%
50%
22%
9.6
47%
3.4
50%
22.8
56%
0
0000.91.7
-
10Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts3629
17%
0.8
3362-29
2.6
86%
50%
22%
9.4
42%
4.7
75%
23.8
61%
1
1000.91.7
-
11Hamilton AcademicalHamilton Academical410
75%
2.5
106+4
4.0
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.51.5
-
12ClydeClyde45
25%
1.2
76+1
3.2
100%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.5
-
13SpartansSpartans21
0%
0.5
13-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
14ForfarForfar20
0%
0.0
25-3
3.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.5
-
Scotland: League One 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →

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