PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Stenhousemuir vs Ayr Utd Result & Analysis

Date: 23/07/2024
Time: 18:45
Final 1-4
Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
Vs
15%
23%
61%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
Scotland: League Cup
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Stenhousemuir win✗ Miss
15.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd win✓ Hit
61.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D00D00D11D22D11D02L40W03LA·FOR16/03H·PET23/03A·DUM30/03H·EAS06/04H·ELG13/04A·CLY20/04H·BON27/04A·STR04/05H·BUC13/07A·DUN16/07
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.931.400.801.331.07
vs Stronger (18)1.330.781.450.451.141.29
vs Similar (6)1.330.501.500.501.250.50
vs Weaker (6)1.501.831.003.001.751.25
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L21W12L11D50W01L00D33D10W12LH·QUE23/03H·AIR29/03A·RAI06/04H·MOR09/04H·ARB13/04A·DUN20/04A·PAR27/04H·DUN03/05H·FAL16/07A·DUN20/07
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.531.801.471.131.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)1.481.441.861.361.081.54
vs Weaker (3)1.332.331.003.001.502.00
Clean sheet %23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.4%
Under 1.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.7%
Under 2.5
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.4%
Under 3.5
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.3%
No
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
0-2
11.2%
0-1
10.5%
1-2
9.9%
0-3
7.2%
0-0
6.9%
1-3
6.4%
2-1
4.5%
Stenhousemuir goals ↓
Ayr Utd goals →
01234
06.9%10%11%7.2%3.5%
14.2%11%9.9%6.4%3.1%
22.3%4.5%4.4%2.8%1.4%
30.7%1.3%1.3%0.8%0.4%
40.2%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stenhousemuir goals (down), columns = Ayr Utd goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Aberdeen
2.57
Celtic
2.50
Dundee
2.50
Rangers
2.50
Ross County
2.40
Livingston
2.25
Ayr Utd
2.25
Falkirk
2.00
Spartans
2.00
Dundee Utd
2.00
ST Johnstone
1.80
Hibernian
1.80
Queen's Park
1.80
Airdrie United
1.80
Partick
1.75
Montrose
1.75
East Fife
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.75
Raith Rovers
1.75
Alloa Athletic
1.75
Motherwell
1.71
Morton
1.50
Peterhead
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Hamilton Academical
1.25
Kilmarnock
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Arbroath
1.00
Cove Rangers
1.00
Kelty Hearts
1.00
Inverness CT
1.00
Dunfermline
0.75
Stenhousemuir
0.75
Stirling
0.50
Dumbarton
0.25
Stranraer
0.25
Elgin
0.25
East Kilbride
0.25
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.25
ST Mirren
0.00
Brechin
0.00
Edinburgh City
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian
0.00
Buckie Thistle
0.00
Stenhousemuir is 1.50 points worse than Ayr Utd in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 2.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celtic
4.25
Dundee
4.00
Queen's Park
3.20
Airdrie United
3.20
Hibernian
3.00
Aberdeen
2.86
Partick
2.75
Rangers
2.50
Falkirk
2.50
Clyde
2.25
Ayr Utd
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.20
Ross County
2.00
East Fife
2.00
Dundee Utd
2.00
Annan Athletic
1.75
Raith Rovers
1.75
Alloa Athletic
1.75
Montrose
1.50
Motherwell
1.43
Spartans
1.33
Livingston
1.25
Peterhead
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen of the South
1.25
Hamilton Academical
1.25
Buckie Thistle
1.25
Dumbarton
1.00
Dunfermline
1.00
Stranraer
1.00
Morton
0.75
Forfar
0.75
Elgin
0.75
Cove Rangers
0.75
Inverness CT
0.75
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.75
Brechin
0.50
Stirling
0.50
Kelty Hearts
0.50
East Kilbride
0.50
Arbroath
0.25
Edinburgh City
0.25
Kilmarnock
0.00
ST Mirren
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian
0.00
Stenhousemuir is 1.00 goals worse than Ayr Utd in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 2.25).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kilmarnock
0.00
Livingston
0.25
Motherwell
0.71
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Ross County
0.80
Dundee
1.00
Aberdeen
1.00
Rangers
1.00
ST Mirren
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Raith Rovers
1.00
Falkirk
1.17
Spartans
1.17
Dundee Utd
1.17
Queen's Park
1.20
Partick
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Montrose
1.25
East Fife
1.25
Annan Athletic
1.25
Ayr Utd
1.25
Alloa Athletic
1.25
ST Johnstone
1.40
Celtic
1.50
Morton
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Inverness CT
1.75
Stirling
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Heart Of Midlothian
2.00
Airdrie United
2.20
Cove Rangers
2.25
Brechin
2.50
Stranraer
2.50
Peterhead
2.75
Stenhousemuir
2.75
Dumbarton
3.25
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
3.25
Elgin
3.50
Edinburgh City
4.00
East Kilbride
4.00
Buckie Thistle
4.25
Stenhousemuir is 1.50 goals worse than Ayr Utd in terms of goals conceded per game (2.75 vs 1.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir

For 5.0 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.3

🚩 Corners

12045476324102366533725691196129116911A·STRH·BONA·CLYH·ELGH·EASA·DUMH·PETA·FORH·SPAA·BON
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.5

🟨 Cards

9031114521213142134119334613A·STRH·BONA·CLYH·ELGH·EASA·DUMH·PETA·FORH·SPAA·BON
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 10.8 · Total 24.7

⚠️ Fouls

3701289121361416151081121722151012151120211930251928372226A·STRH·BONA·CLYH·ELGH·EASA·DUMH·PETA·FORH·SPAA·BON
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.110.69.83.94.23.722.122.721.4
vs Stronger (27)9.69.49.83.53.53.523.425.021.9
vs Similar (14)11.912.411.44.75.63.921.420.622.1
vs Weaker (9)8.810.87.24.04.23.819.419.819.2
% over line54%65%44%54%58%50%44%43%44%
% under line46%35%56%46%42%50%56%57%56%
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (45)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (5)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Celtic
11.9
Rangers
11.3
Heart Of Midlothian
11.2
Dundee
11.1
Dundee Utd
11.1
Ross County
11.1
Kelty Hearts
11.0
Morton
10.9
ST Mirren
10.8
Motherwell
10.8
Falkirk
10.8
Kilmarnock
10.7
Arbroath
10.7
Dunfermline
10.7
Aberdeen
10.5
Dumbarton
10.5
Stenhousemuir
10.3
Hibernian
10.3
Stirling
10.3
Montrose
10.2
ST Johnstone
10.1
Cove Rangers
10.1
Forfar
10.1
Annan Athletic
10.0
Partick
10.0
Brechin
10.0
Inverness CT
10.0
Edinburgh City
10.0
Stranraer
9.9
Airdrie United
9.9
Clyde
9.8
East Fife
9.6
Livingston
9.5
Spartans
9.4
Peterhead
8.8
Elgin
8.3

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Peterhead
4.8
Annan Athletic
4.7
Heart Of Midlothian
4.3
Morton
4.3
Rangers
4.2
Aberdeen
4.1
Kilmarnock
4.0
Dumbarton
4.0
Stenhousemuir
4.0
Dundee
4.0
Dundee Utd
4.0
Hibernian
4.0
Falkirk
4.0
Montrose
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Motherwell
4.0
ST Johnstone
3.8
Ross County
3.8
East Fife
3.7
Dunfermline
3.6
Elgin
3.6
Edinburgh City
3.6
Celtic
3.6
Kelty Hearts
3.6
Stranraer
3.5
Brechin
3.5
Partick
3.5
Livingston
3.5
Arbroath
3.4
Clyde
3.4
Forfar
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Spartans
3.2
ST Mirren
3.2
Cove Rangers
3.2
Inverness CT
2.8

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
24.8
Aberdeen
24.2
Livingston
23.9
Elgin
23.7
Forfar
23.7
Kilmarnock
22.8
Heart Of Midlothian
22.7
Motherwell
22.4
ST Johnstone
22.3
Morton
22.3
Ross County
22.2
Dundee Utd
22.2
Rangers
21.9
Stenhousemuir
21.9
Falkirk
21.8
Kelty Hearts
21.7
Hibernian
21.6
East Fife
21.5
ST Mirren
21.3
Montrose
21.1
Annan Athletic
20.9
Arbroath
20.9
Spartans
20.9
Dumbarton
20.5
Edinburgh City
20.4
Clyde
20.4
Brechin
20.4
Stirling
20.2
Stranraer
20.0
Dundee
20.0
Partick
19.9
Celtic
19.5
Inverness CT
19.3
Dunfermline
19.3
Cove Rangers
18.8
Airdrie United
18.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Stenhousemuir or Draw✗ Miss
38.9%
Avg Implied -
15%
23%
61%
covers Stenhousemuir + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir or Ayr Utd✓ Hit
76.6%
Avg Implied -
15%
23%
61%
covers Stenhousemuir + Ayr Utd
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ayr Utd✓ Hit
84.5%
Avg Implied -
15%
23%
61%
covers Draw + Ayr Utd
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
58.7%
Under
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
22.2%
Under
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.7%
Under
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
57.8%
Under
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
30.8%
Under
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Stenhousemuir, so a minus line means Stenhousemuir give that many goals of a start and Ayr Utd receive them. At -1, Stenhousemuir must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Stenhousemuir win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Stenhousemuir)Actual: Ayr Utd
Stenhousemuir -2
1.3%
Draw -2
4.0%
Ayr Utd +2
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Stenhousemuir)Actual: Ayr Utd
Stenhousemuir -1
5.3%
Draw -1
10.2%
Ayr Utd +1
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Stenhousemuir)Actual: Ayr Utd
Stenhousemuir +1
38.9%
Draw +1
23.6%
Ayr Utd -1
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Stenhousemuir)Actual: Ayr Utd
Stenhousemuir +2
62.5%
Draw +2
19.1%
Ayr Utd -2
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D00D10W11D10W01L20W02LA·FOR16/03H·PET23/03A·DUM30/03H·EAS06/04H·ELG13/04A·CLY20/04H·BON27/04A·STR04/05H·BUC13/07A·DUN16/07
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.400.870.200.730.60
vs Stronger (18)0.830.390.910.090.710.86
vs Similar (6)0.500.170.500.000.500.25
vs Weaker (6)1.000.671.001.001.000.50
Clean sheet %70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L01L11D30W00D00D13L10W01LH·QUE23/03H·AIR29/03A·RAI06/04H·MOR09/04H·ARB13/04A·DUN20/04A·PAR27/04H·DUN03/05H·FAL16/07A·DUN20/07
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.831.000.800.400.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.740.741.070.790.380.69
vs Weaker (3)0.331.670.001.000.502.00
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D00D01L11D01L01L20W01LA·FOR16/03H·PET23/03A·DUM30/03H·EAS06/04H·ELG13/04A·CLY20/04H·BON27/04A·STR04/05H·BUC13/07A·DUN16/07
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.530.530.600.600.47
vs Stronger (18)0.500.390.550.360.430.43
vs Similar (6)0.830.331.000.500.750.25
vs Weaker (6)0.501.170.002.000.750.75
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D20W11D00D20W01L00D20W00D11DH·QUE23/03H·AIR29/03A·RAI06/04H·MOR09/04H·ARB13/04A·DUN20/04A·PAR27/04H·DUN03/05H·FAL16/07A·DUN20/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.700.800.670.730.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.740.700.790.570.690.85
vs Weaker (3)1.000.671.002.001.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.599.1%-------✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals98.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.597.4%-------✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap94.7%-------✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals94.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.593.2%-------✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals86.7%-------✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals85.7%-------✓ Hit
Draw or Away84.5%-------✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap84.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.584.3%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.578.4%-------✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals77.8%-------✓ Hit
Home or Away76.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Stenhousemuir's squad is €2m less valuable than Ayr Utd's (€0m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Stenhousemuir and Ayr Utd have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Stenhousemuir and Ayr Utd have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Stenhousemuir's defence is €1m less valuable than Ayr Utd's (€0m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
STE wins
0
Draws
0
AU wins

Head-to-head

Stenhousemuir vs Ayr Utd · H/A from STE
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/07/24ADundee Utd Vs STE3-0
13/07/24HSTE Vs Buckie Thistle4-0
04/05/24AStranraer Vs STE2-0
27/04/24HSTE Vs Bonnyrigg Rose1-1
20/04/24AClyde Vs STE2-2
13/04/24HSTE Vs Elgin1-1
06/04/24HSTE Vs East Fife0-0
30/03/24ADumbarton Vs STE0-0
23/03/24HSTE Vs Peterhead0-0
16/03/24AForfar Vs STE1-1

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/07/24ADundee Utd Vs AU2-1
16/07/24HAU Vs Falkirk1-0
03/05/24HAU Vs Dunfermline3-3
27/04/24APartick Vs AU0-0
20/04/24ADundee Utd Vs AU1-0
13/04/24HAU Vs Arbroath5-0
09/04/24HAU Vs Morton1-1
06/04/24ARaith Rovers Vs AU2-1
29/03/24HAU Vs Airdrie United2-1
23/03/24HAU Vs Queen's Park1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
Scotland: League Cup
Recent: 1 Wins / 7 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWL1.72
HomeDDDDW1.75
AwayDDDLL1.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%46%46%
AVG goals2.302.382.23
Over 1.5 %66%62%69%
Over 2.5 %40%42%38%
Over 3.5 %22%25%19%
Scored1.321.421.23
Conceded0.980.961.00
BTTS46%46%46%
Clean Sheet44%50%38%
Corners10.1510.579.76
Cards4.104.433.80
Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
Scotland: League Cup
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDWL1.30
HomeWDWDW1.38
AwayWLLDL1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%38%35%
AVG goals2.982.963.00
Over 1.5 %78%75%81%
Over 2.5 %64%62%65%
Over 3.5 %32%33%31%
Scored1.381.421.35
Conceded1.601.541.65
BTTS56%50%62%
Clean Sheet24%33%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

Stenhousemuir plays in Scotland - League One
RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ArbroathArbroath3664
53%
1.8
5842+16
2.8
81%
61%
25%
10.4
56%
3.4
44%
19.7
31%
1
0001.61.2
-
2Inverness CTInverness CT3658
44%
1.6
4538+7
2.3
67%
36%
19%
8.9
42%
3.5
44%
21.4
50%
1
0001.21.1
-
3Cove RangersCove Rangers3657
44%
1.6
6244+18
2.9
86%
61%
36%
9.4
47%
2.6
22%
18.6
25%
0
0001.71.2
-
4
QO
Queen of Sth		3655
44%
1.5
4641+5
2.4
72%
44%
19%
8.7
31%
4.2
67%
21.5
51%
0
0001.31.1
-
5StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3653
42%
1.5
4845+3
2.6
72%
53%
31%
9.4
39%
3.7
44%
21.1
47%
0
0001.31.2
-
6
A
Alloa		3651
36%
1.4
5547+8
2.8
75%
50%
36%
10.4
61%
4.1
58%
20.5
42%
0
0001.51.3
-
7Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts3644
31%
1.2
4046-6
2.4
75%
42%
25%
10.0
50%
3.2
42%
19.3
28%
1
1001.11.3
-
8MontroseMontrose3640
25%
1.1
4049-9
2.5
72%
50%
25%
9.3
40%
3.9
61%
20.2
34%
0
0001.11.4
-
9Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3636
28%
1.0
4168-27
3.0
81%
53%
36%
9.5
56%
3.6
47%
19.4
31%
0
0001.11.9
-
10DumbartonDumbarton3635
22%
1.0
5166-15
3.2
92%
67%
47%
11.0
53%
3.7
47%
19.2
25%
0
0001.41.8
-
Scotland: League One 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
Ayr Utd plays in Scotland - Championship
RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FalkirkFalkirk52104
60%
2.0
10150+51
2.9
77%
54%
37%
11.4
56%
4.1
44%
22.1
56%
6
2131.91.0
-
2LivingstonLivingston52103
58%
2.0
8538+47
2.4
73%
54%
12%
8.8
50%
5.2
69%
24.4
62%
4
1111.60.7
-
3PartickPartick5282
44%
1.6
6552+13
2.2
67%
42%
10%
9.5
38%
4.6
69%
20.8
44%
3
1111.21.0
-
4MortonMorton5274
37%
1.4
6264-2
2.4
71%
42%
21%
11.8
69%
4.2
69%
19.7
38%
1
0001.21.2
-
5
A
Ayr		3663
50%
1.8
5739+18
2.7
78%
42%
25%
9.9
53%
4.4
72%
22.5
61%
0
0001.61.1
-
6Ayr UtdAyr Utd3663
50%
1.8
5739+18
2.7
78%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.1
-
7Airdrie UnitedAirdrie United5656
27%
1.0
5893-35
2.7
75%
52%
29%
11.4
50%
3.6
56%
22.3
62%
0
0001.01.7
-
8Raith RoversRaith Rovers3653
42%
1.5
4743+4
2.5
75%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.31.2
-
9
RR
Raith Rvs		3653
42%
1.5
4743+4
2.5
75%
42%
19%
7.9
28%
4.1
58%
23.1
67%
0
0001.31.2
-
10DunfermlineDunfermline5249
25%
0.9
4064-24
2.0
60%
31%
12%
9.2
38%
3.9
50%
22.9
62%
4
2020.81.2
-
11
H
Hamilton		3636
28%
1.0
3864-26
2.8
78%
61%
31%
10.9
50%
4.1
53%
23.0
69%
0
0001.11.8
-
12Hamilton AcademicalHamilton Academical3636
28%
1.0
3864-26
2.8
78%
61%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
13Queens ParkQueens Park3635
25%
1.0
3655-19
2.5
75%
53%
19%
11.8
64%
4.0
58%
19.4
36%
0
0001.01.5
-
14QueenQueen's Park3635
25%
1.0
3655-19
2.5
75%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.5
-
15Cove RangersCove Rangers45
25%
1.2
33+0
1.5
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.80.8
-
16Queen of the SouthQueen of the South21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
17StenhousemuirStenhousemuir20
0%
0.0
25-3
3.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.5
-
Scotland: Championship 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

← all matches