This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnsley
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.37
1.47
1.33
1.87
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.61
1.48
1.36
1.55
1.83
1.42
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
1.00
1.75
0.75
2.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Stevenage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.5%
Under 1.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.8%
@ 2.21+4.2%
Under 2.5
53.2%
@ 1.64-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.2%
Under 3.5
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.0%
No
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
9.2%
0-0
9.1%
2-1 ✓
8.5%
0-1
8.2%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
5.7%
Stevenage goals ↓
Barnsley goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
8.2%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
1
9.2%
14%
7.6%
3.1%
0.9%
2
7.0%
8.5%
5.1%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.1%
3.8%
2.3%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.1%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stevenage goals (down), columns = Barnsley goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Portsmouth
2.11
Derby
2.00
Bolton
1.89
Peterboro
1.83
Oxford
1.67
Barnsley
1.65
Lincoln
1.61
Blackpool
1.59
Stevenage
1.54
Wigan
1.52
Leyton Orient
1.41
Wycombe
1.41
Exeter
1.33
Northampton
1.30
Reading
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.24
Charlton
1.15
Cambridge
1.04
Shrewsbury
1.04
Burton
1.00
Cheltenham
0.96
Fleetwood Town
0.93
Port Vale
0.89
Carlisle
0.65
Stevenage is 0.11 points worse than Barnsley in terms of average points per game (1.54 vs 1.65).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Peterboro
1.93
Bolton
1.87
Barnsley
1.78
Oxford
1.72
Derby
1.70
Portsmouth
1.70
Reading
1.48
Lincoln
1.41
Blackpool
1.41
Charlton
1.39
Wigan
1.37
Wycombe
1.30
Northampton
1.24
Stevenage
1.24
Leyton Orient
1.15
Bristol Rvs
1.13
Fleetwood Town
1.07
Exeter
1.00
Port Vale
0.89
Carlisle
0.89
Cheltenham
0.89
Cambridge
0.85
Burton
0.85
Shrewsbury
0.76
Stevenage is 0.54 goals worse than Barnsley in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Derby
0.80
Lincoln
0.87
Portsmouth
0.89
Stevenage
1.00
Blackpool
1.04
Bolton
1.11
Leyton Orient
1.20
Wycombe
1.20
Oxford
1.22
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.33
Exeter
1.33
Peterboro
1.33
Barnsley
1.39
Charlton
1.41
Cheltenham
1.41
Northampton
1.43
Shrewsbury
1.46
Burton
1.46
Bristol Rvs
1.48
Reading
1.52
Fleetwood Town
1.57
Port Vale
1.61
Carlisle
1.76
Stevenage is 0.39 goals better than Barnsley in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Peterboro
62%
Bolton
60%
Portsmouth
59%
Exeter
54%
Barnsley
54%
Wigan
53%
Blackpool
53%
Reading
53%
Oxford
52%
Leyton Orient
52%
Charlton
52%
Derby
51%
Port Vale
49%
Northampton
49%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Wycombe
46%
Carlisle
46%
Stevenage
45%
Cambridge
44%
Cheltenham
44%
Lincoln
43%
Shrewsbury
41%
Burton
41%
Stevenage is 8.5 percentage points worse than Barnsley in terms of average possession (45% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stevenage
For 6.2 · Against 2.1 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Barnsley
For 4.9 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.8 · Against 10.0 · Total 18.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stevenage
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
10.3
8.4
4.2
4.1
4.2
24.6
24.2
24.9
vs Stronger (6)
9.0
11.0
7.0
5.2
5.0
5.3
27.2
24.7
29.7
vs Similar (40)
9.2
10.1
8.4
4.0
4.0
4.1
24.6
24.1
24.9
vs Weaker (4)
10.5
13.0
9.7
4.0
4.0
4.0
20.8
23.0
20.0
% over line
46%
67%
27%
54%
50%
58%
72%
79%
65%
% under line
54%
33%
73%
46%
50%
42%
28%
21%
35%
This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnsley
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.8
10.8
4.1
4.1
4.2
20.3
20.7
19.8
vs Stronger (1)
5.0
5.0
-
6.0
6.0
-
35.0
35.0
-
vs Similar (38)
10.1
9.8
10.5
4.3
4.4
4.3
20.4
20.4
20.3
vs Weaker (11)
11.3
10.8
11.8
3.4
3.0
3.8
18.5
19.0
18.0
% over line
56%
54%
58%
66%
69%
62%
34%
38%
29%
% under line
44%
46%
42%
34%
31%
38%
66%
62%
71%
This opponent (Stevenage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fleetwood Town
11.5
Exeter
11.4
Derby
11.2
Charlton
11.2
Port Vale
11.1
Wycombe
10.9
Bristol Rvs
10.8
Peterboro
10.7
Bolton
10.6
Reading
10.4
Oxford
10.4
Shrewsbury
10.4
Barnsley
10.3
Portsmouth
10.2
Carlisle
10.1
Cheltenham
9.8
Leyton Orient
9.8
Blackpool
9.5
Cambridge
9.4
Wigan
9.4
Lincoln
9.4
Stevenage
9.3
Northampton
8.9
Burton
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Wigan
5.1
Portsmouth
4.9
Bristol Rvs
4.7
Oxford
4.4
Bolton
4.3
Lincoln
4.3
Shrewsbury
4.3
Exeter
4.3
Fleetwood Town
4.3
Blackpool
4.2
Stevenage
4.2
Leyton Orient
4.1
Port Vale
4.1
Barnsley
4.1
Cheltenham
4.1
Cambridge
4.1
Charlton
4.1
Reading
4.0
Wycombe
3.9
Derby
3.8
Peterboro
3.7
Carlisle
3.6
Burton
3.6
Northampton
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stevenage
24.6
Wigan
24.4
Portsmouth
24.1
Bolton
22.9
Cambridge
22.9
Bristol Rvs
22.9
Fleetwood Town
22.6
Blackpool
22.5
Cheltenham
22.5
Oxford
22.1
Lincoln
21.9
Shrewsbury
21.8
Exeter
21.4
Reading
21.3
Burton
21.2
Derby
21.1
Wycombe
21.0
Port Vale
20.9
Leyton Orient
20.6
Peterboro
20.4
Barnsley
20.3
Charlton
20.2
Northampton
20.1
Carlisle
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
33.7%
Under 9.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
58.5%
Under 3.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
59.0%
Under 21.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stevenage
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.79
0.29
0.44
0.69
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.44
0.75
0.25
0.46
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnsley
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.60
0.67
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.70
0.55
0.64
0.83
0.75
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.86
0.75
0.75
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Stevenage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stevenage over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stevenage over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stevenage over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnsley over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnsley over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnsley over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stevenage
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.47
0.29
0.36
0.69
0.56
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.48
0.25
0.42
0.69
0.54
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnsley
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
0.87
0.67
1.07
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.78
0.82
0.91
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.14
1.00
0.00
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Stevenage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stevenage over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stevenage over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stevenage over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnsley over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnsley over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnsley over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 11.5 corners
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Stevenage · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Josh Magennis50%
Jordan Roberts25%
Daniel Kemp25%
Oliver Sanderson25%
Terence Vancooten0%
Carl Piergianni0%
Louis Thompson0%
Lewis Freestone0%
Phoenix Patterson0%
Filip Marschall0%
Terry Taylor0%
Daniel Phillips0%
Saxon Earley0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Carl Piergianni50%
Jordan Roberts25%
Lewis Freestone25%
Daniel Kemp25%
Terence Vancooten0%
Louis Thompson0%
Josh Magennis0%
Phoenix Patterson0%
Filip Marschall0%
Terry Taylor0%
Daniel Phillips0%
Saxon Earley0%
Oliver Sanderson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Phoenix Patterson50%
Jordan Roberts0%
Terence Vancooten0%
Carl Piergianni0%
Louis Thompson0%
Josh Magennis0%
Lewis Freestone0%
Daniel Kemp0%
Filip Marschall0%
Terry Taylor0%
Daniel Phillips0%
Saxon Earley0%
Oliver Sanderson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniel Kemp50%
Phoenix Patterson25%
Jordan Roberts0%
Terence Vancooten0%
Carl Piergianni0%
Louis Thompson0%
Josh Magennis0%
Lewis Freestone0%
Filip Marschall0%
Terry Taylor0%
Daniel Phillips0%
Saxon Earley0%
Oliver Sanderson0%
Barnsley · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cameron McGeehan50%
Reyes Cleary50%
Tyrese Noslin33%
Makenzie Kirk25%
Amani Richards0%
Patrick Kelly0%
Sam Gale0%
Jonathan Bland0%
Luke Alker0%
Rogan Ravenhill0%
Arley Kay0%
Noah Philip Town0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jonathan Bland67%
Tyrese Noslin33%
Cameron McGeehan25%
Sam Gale25%
Rogan Ravenhill25%
Reyes Cleary0%
Amani Richards0%
Patrick Kelly0%
Makenzie Kirk0%
Luke Alker0%
Arley Kay0%
Noah Philip Town0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Reyes Cleary50%
Cameron McGeehan0%
Amani Richards0%
Patrick Kelly0%
Makenzie Kirk0%
Sam Gale0%
Tyrese Noslin0%
Jonathan Bland0%
Luke Alker0%
Rogan Ravenhill0%
Arley Kay0%
Noah Philip Town0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tyrese Noslin67%
Reyes Cleary25%
Makenzie Kirk25%
Cameron McGeehan0%
Amani Richards0%
Patrick Kelly0%
Sam Gale0%
Jonathan Bland0%
Luke Alker0%
Rogan Ravenhill0%
Arley Kay0%
Noah Philip Town0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (25)
€57m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
SHR (17)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
CAR (1)
€0m
Stevenage and Barnsley have a similar squad value (both €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
POR (12)
€13m
OXF (8)
€6m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Stevenage and Barnsley have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (6)
€14m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Stevenage and Barnsley have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (11)
€18m
POR (13)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
Stevenage and Barnsley have a similar defence value (both €3m).
England: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Portsmouth
Derby
Bolton
Peterboro
Oxford
Lincoln
Blackpool
Wigan
Wycombe
Leyton Orient
Exeter
Northampton
Reading
Bristol Rvs
Charlton
Cambridge
Shrewsbury
Burton
Cheltenham
Fleetwood Town
Port Vale
Carlisle