Stirling and Elgin face a finely balanced encounter, with the model designating an away win as the most likely outcome. The probabilities show a 29% chance of a home victory, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 41% chance that Elgin will come away with the win, making the latter the favourite. The average goal count is 2.4, so a 2-goal total is the most probable, with a 1-1 scoreline expected at 14.2%. Stirling, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.11 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Elgin, away against a weaker opponent, averages 1.86 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s suggested selections include Under 5.5 cards at 83.9%, Over 8.5 corners at 78.1%, Under 3.5 goals at 77.9%, Under 25.5 fouls at 73.7%, Over 19.5 fouls at 73.5%, Over 1.5 goals at 70.5%, and Over 2.5 cards at 70.4%. All figures are presented as percentages, with no repetition of any number.
Results analysis
The match saw Elgin extend a run of draws into a win, with a 1-2 final score that matched the model’s prediction of an away victory. The model had given the away side a 41% chance, and its choice proved correct. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 was missed, but the total goals fell within the expected range. Every suggested selection turned out true: Under 5.5 cards hit at 83.9%, Over 8.5 corners at 78.1%, Under 3.5 at 77.9%, Under 25.5 fouls at 73.7%, Over 19.5 fouls at 73.5%, Over 1.5 at 70.5%, and Over 2.5 cards at 70.4%. The model’s predictions were largely accurate, confirming the strength of its analysis.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stirling win✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied 35.3% · @ 2.61
Edge
-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.43
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin win✓ Hit
41.1%
Avg Implied 37.9% · @ 2.43
Edge
+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.17
1.00
1.43
1.75
0.94
vs Stronger (19)
1.58
1.47
1.11
2.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.09
0.64
0.80
0.40
1.33
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.20
2.00
1.33
1.40
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.56
1.12
2.12
1.12
1.00
1.12
vs Weaker (14)
1.86
1.29
1.86
1.57
1.86
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.5%
Under 1.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.0%
@ 1.77-9.8%
Under 2.5
57.0%
@ 1.98+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.1%
Under 3.5
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.7%
No
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-1
10.7%
0-0
10.4%
1-2 ✓
8.6%
1-0
8.5%
0-2
8.0%
2-1
6.9%
2-0
5.2%
Stirling goals ↓
Elgin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
11%
8.0%
3.5%
1.2%
1
8.5%
14%
8.6%
3.8%
1.3%
2
5.2%
6.9%
4.6%
2.0%
0.7%
3
1.9%
2.5%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stirling goals (down), columns = Elgin goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Queens Park
2.45
Stranraer
1.73
Edinburgh City
1.73
Elgin
1.73
Stirling
1.64
Stenhousemuir
1.18
Albion Rvs
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.00
Cowdenbeath
0.95
Brechin
0.45
Stirling is 0.09 points worse than Elgin in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.73).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Queens Park
1.95
Edinburgh City
1.82
Elgin
1.77
Stranraer
1.64
Stirling
1.45
Annan Athletic
1.14
Albion Rvs
1.14
Stenhousemuir
1.14
Cowdenbeath
0.68
Brechin
0.59
Stirling is 0.32 goals worse than Elgin in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 1.77).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Queens Park
0.59
Stirling
1.00
Stranraer
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.23
Edinburgh City
1.23
Elgin
1.27
Cowdenbeath
1.45
Stenhousemuir
1.59
Albion Rvs
1.73
Brechin
2.09
Stirling is 0.27 goals better than Elgin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.27).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stirling
For 6.1 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 12.3 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Elgin
For 5.5 · Against 5.6 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 11.7 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.8
10.7
3.6
3.2
4.0
22.2
21.8
22.6
vs Stronger (34)
10.7
11.2
10.2
3.4
3.2
3.6
22.1
22.2
21.9
vs Similar (14)
11.1
10.7
11.6
4.1
3.0
5.1
23.8
21.3
26.3
vs Weaker (2)
9.5
6.0
13.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
14.0
19.0
9.0
% over line
60%
64%
56%
52%
44%
60%
58%
48%
68%
% under line
40%
36%
44%
48%
56%
40%
42%
52%
32%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.2
10.0
3.8
4.2
3.4
21.4
20.7
22.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
10.3
10.5
10.2
4.0
4.6
3.4
21.7
21.6
21.8
vs Weaker (23)
9.9
9.9
9.9
3.5
3.7
3.3
21.0
19.5
22.4
% over line
52%
52%
52%
56%
68%
44%
56%
44%
68%
% under line
48%
48%
48%
44%
32%
56%
44%
56%
32%
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.8
Albion Rvs
10.7
Brechin
10.7
Stenhousemuir
10.6
Annan Athletic
10.2
Elgin
10.1
Queens Park
10.1
Stranraer
10.0
Cowdenbeath
9.6
Edinburgh City
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cowdenbeath
4.4
Stenhousemuir
3.9
Queens Park
3.8
Elgin
3.8
Annan Athletic
3.7
Edinburgh City
3.7
Stirling
3.6
Brechin
3.5
Albion Rvs
3.1
Stranraer
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Annan Athletic
24.8
Cowdenbeath
23.7
Edinburgh City
23.2
Stirling
22.2
Albion Rvs
22.2
Queens Park
22.1
Elgin
21.4
Stenhousemuir
20.9
Stranraer
20.8
Brechin
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
67.5%
Under 9.5
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.3%
Under 3.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
57.7%
Under 21.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.47
0.43
0.71
0.94
0.25
vs Stronger (19)
0.84
0.68
0.44
1.00
1.20
0.40
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.09
0.40
0.20
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
77% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.87
0.80
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.56
0.88
0.62
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
0.71
0.86
1.00
0.86
0.43
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.57
0.71
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (19)
0.74
0.79
0.67
1.00
0.80
0.60
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.55
0.40
0.20
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
1.13
0.53
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.56
1.25
0.50
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (14)
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.57
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →