Pythia gives Stirling a 26% win probability against Stranraer in the Scotland: League Two on 2021-05-01, with 34% for the draw and 40% for Stranraer. The model estimates around 1.9 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 0-0 the most likely scoreline (15.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (87%), Under 5.5 cards (80%), Over 19.5 fouls (77%), Under 11.5 corners (76%).
Results analysis
The match ended in a 2-2 draw, a shock for the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick for an away win, which proved incorrect. Stirling had just returned from a defeat, while Stranraer came off a win, yet neither side secured the expected result. The model’s prediction of an away victory carried a 40% probability, but the outcome was a draw. The suggested picks were mixed: Under 3.5 goals at 86.9% missed, Under 5.5 cards at 79.8% hit, Over 19.5 fouls at 77.2% hit, Under 11.5 corners at 75.7% missed, and Over 2.5 cards at 74.9% missed. The final score of 2-2 reflected a tightly contested encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stirling win✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied 36.1% · @ 2.56
Edge
-9.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
33.8%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.50
Edge
+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stranraer win✗ Miss
40.0%
Avg Implied 37.4% · @ 2.47
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.27
0.71
1.36
2.12
1.19
vs Stronger (18)
1.56
1.50
0.89
1.89
2.22
1.11
vs Similar (12)
1.33
0.92
0.40
0.40
2.00
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.40
1.57
1.36
1.38
1.44
vs Stronger (24)
1.42
1.29
1.50
1.08
1.33
1.50
vs Similar (6)
1.67
1.83
2.00
3.00
1.50
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
58.8%
Under 1.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
30.5%
@ 1.87-19.5%
Under 2.5
69.5%
@ 1.87+19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
13.1%
Under 3.5
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
39.0%
No
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.8%
1-1
14.6%
0-1
14.6%
1-0
10.8%
0-2
8.7%
1-2
7.3%
2-1
5.5%
2-0
5.1%
Stirling goals ↓
Stranraer goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
15%
8.7%
3.2%
0.9%
1
11%
15%
7.3%
2.7%
0.7%
2
5.1%
5.5%
3.0%
1.1%
0.3%
3
1.4%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stirling goals (down), columns = Stranraer goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Queens Park
2.45
Stranraer
1.73
Edinburgh City
1.73
Elgin
1.73
Stirling
1.64
Stenhousemuir
1.18
Albion Rvs
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.00
Cowdenbeath
0.95
Brechin
0.45
Stirling is 0.09 points worse than Stranraer in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.73).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Queens Park
1.95
Edinburgh City
1.82
Elgin
1.77
Stranraer
1.64
Stirling
1.45
Annan Athletic
1.14
Stenhousemuir
1.14
Albion Rvs
1.14
Cowdenbeath
0.68
Brechin
0.59
Stirling is 0.18 goals worse than Stranraer in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 1.64).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Queens Park
0.59
Stirling
1.00
Stranraer
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.23
Edinburgh City
1.23
Elgin
1.27
Cowdenbeath
1.45
Stenhousemuir
1.59
Albion Rvs
1.73
Brechin
2.09
Stirling is 0.14 goals better than Stranraer in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stirling
For 5.8 · Against 3.4 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 12.1 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
For 4.4 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.4 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 10.8 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.3
10.4
3.9
3.4
4.3
23.3
23.0
23.6
vs Stronger (31)
9.9
10.2
9.6
3.8
3.5
4.1
23.3
23.4
23.2
vs Similar (19)
11.1
10.6
11.6
4.1
3.3
4.7
23.3
22.3
24.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
62%
50%
60%
46%
73%
64%
58%
69%
% under line
44%
38%
50%
40%
54%
27%
36%
42%
31%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.0
9.2
3.3
2.8
3.7
22.1
22.7
21.5
vs Stronger (38)
9.6
9.5
9.6
3.3
2.8
3.8
22.1
22.9
21.1
vs Similar (12)
9.8
12.8
8.4
3.2
3.0
3.4
22.2
21.5
22.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
58%
35%
46%
29%
62%
54%
54%
54%
% under line
54%
42%
65%
54%
71%
38%
46%
46%
46%
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albion Rvs
10.5
Cowdenbeath
10.5
Stirling
10.4
Brechin
10.3
Elgin
10.2
Queens Park
10.1
Stenhousemuir
9.9
Stranraer
9.6
Annan Athletic
9.6
Edinburgh City
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cowdenbeath
4.6
Elgin
4.2
Stenhousemuir
4.2
Queens Park
3.9
Stirling
3.9
Edinburgh City
3.7
Annan Athletic
3.6
Brechin
3.5
Albion Rvs
3.4
Stranraer
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Annan Athletic
24.3
Cowdenbeath
24.3
Stirling
23.3
Albion Rvs
22.8
Edinburgh City
22.5
Elgin
22.5
Stenhousemuir
22.3
Queens Park
22.2
Stranraer
22.1
Brechin
20.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
47.2%
Under 9.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
55.0%
Under 3.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
62.3%
Under 21.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.14
0.71
1.19
0.56
vs Stronger (18)
0.61
0.94
0.11
1.00
1.11
0.89
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.17
0.20
0.20
1.29
0.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.36
0.86
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (24)
0.46
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.58
0.67
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.83
0.50
2.00
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.57
0.64
0.94
0.62
vs Stronger (18)
0.94
0.56
0.78
0.89
1.11
0.22
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.75
0.20
0.20
0.71
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.70
1.21
0.50
0.81
0.88
vs Stronger (24)
0.96
0.62
1.17
0.42
0.75
0.83
vs Similar (6)
1.17
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Stirling and Stranraer have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Stirling and Stranraer have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Stirling and Stranraer have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Stirling and Stranraer have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Queens Park
Edinburgh City
Elgin
Stenhousemuir
Annan Athletic
Cowdenbeath
Brechin