Stjarnan are the clear favourites, the model giving them a 66 % chance of victory, a 18 % draw and a 16 % chance for HK Kopavogur. The 4.0 expected total goals and the 6+ most likely total of 22 % underline the high-scoring nature of the fixture. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8.6 % probability, and the match is expected to finish with a home win. Stjarnan’s home form shows they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.7 conceded against similar opposition, while HK Kopavogur on the road averages 1.54 scored and 1.85 conceded. The model’s selections are: Away under 3.5 goals95.5 %, Under 7.594.7 %, Home +2 handicap93.4 %, Home over 0.5 goals93.3 %, Over 1.591.7 %, Under 6.588.6 % (miss), Away under 2.5 goals85.2 %, and Home or Draw84.0 %. The recent form notes that both sides are coming off wins, but Stjarnan’s home advantage and higher scoring rate make the win the most probable outcome.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as Stjarnan secured a decisive 6-1 victory, extending their recent winning streak. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 66 % probability and was correct. The model’s selections performed impressively: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 95.5 %, Under 7.5 hit at 94.7 %, Home +2 handicap hit at 93.4 %, Home over 0.5 goals hit at 93.3 %, Over 1.5 hit at 91.7 %, Under 6.5 missed at 88.6 %, Away under 2.5 goals hit at 85.2 %, and Home or Draw hit at 84.0 %. The final score matched the model’s favored outcome, confirming the accuracy of its overall assessment.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stjarnan win✓ Hit
66.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
18.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur win✗ Miss
16.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stjarnan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.80
2.47
1.73
2.00
1.87
vs Stronger (3)
2.67
2.33
2.00
2.50
4.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
2.27
1.77
2.50
1.70
2.08
1.83
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
1.60
2.67
1.33
0.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (HK Kopavogur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HK Kopavogur
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.53
2.53
1.40
1.93
1.67
vs Stronger (2)
4.00
0.50
3.00
0.00
5.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
2.00
1.69
2.46
1.54
1.54
1.85
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
0.50
3.00
1.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.7%
Under 1.5
8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
76.6%
Under 2.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.2%
Under 3.5
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.1%
No
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.6%
3-1
7.8%
1-1
7.0%
2-0
6.5%
3-0
5.9%
2-2
5.7%
4-1
5.3%
3-2
5.2%
Stjarnan goals ↓
HK Kopavogur goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.4%
1.7%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
1
4.2%
7.0%
4.2%
1.9%
0.6%
2
6.5%
8.6%
5.7%
2.5%
0.8%
3
5.9%
7.8%
5.2%
2.3%
0.8%
4
4.0%
5.3%
3.5%
1.5%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stjarnan goals (down), columns = HK Kopavogur goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
3.00
KR Reykjavik
2.50
Valur Reykjavik
2.43
Keflavik
2.40
IA Akranes
2.20
Fylkir
2.00
Breidablik
2.00
Fram Reykjavik
1.80
Thor Akureyri
1.75
IR Reykjavik
1.60
Afturelding
1.50
Stjarnan
1.40
Vestri
1.40
Grotta
1.20
Grindavik
1.20
Throttur Reykjavik
1.20
Ægir
1.10
KA Akureyri
1.00
FH hafnarfjordur
1.00
HK Kopavogur
0.80
Njardvik
0.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.80
Leiknir R.
0.40
Völsungur
0.40
Stjarnan is 0.60 points better than HK Kopavogur in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.67
Breidablik
3.20
Afturelding
3.00
Valur Reykjavik
3.00
IA Akranes
2.80
Leiknir R.
2.60
Keflavik
2.60
Stjarnan
2.40
Fram Reykjavik
2.40
Fylkir
2.29
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.00
FH hafnarfjordur
2.00
Vestri
2.00
Grindavik
1.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.80
Thor Akureyri
1.75
Grotta
1.73
Ægir
1.58
IR Reykjavik
1.40
Njardvik
1.00
KA Akureyri
1.00
HK Kopavogur
0.80
Völsungur
0.60
Stjarnan is 1.60 goals better than HK Kopavogur in terms of goals scored per game (2.40 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Fylkir
0.86
IR Reykjavik
1.00
Valur Reykjavik
1.00
Breidablik
1.20
KR Reykjavik
1.33
Keflavik
1.40
Fram Reykjavik
1.40
Thor Akureyri
1.75
IA Akranes
1.80
Njardvik
1.80
Vestri
1.80
Afturelding
2.00
Stjarnan
2.00
HK Kopavogur
2.20
Throttur Reykjavik
2.20
FH hafnarfjordur
2.25
Grotta
2.40
KA Akureyri
2.40
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.60
Ægir
2.63
Grindavik
3.40
Völsungur
3.40
Leiknir R.
4.00
Stjarnan is 0.20 goals better than HK Kopavogur in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 2.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Stjarnan or Draw✓ Hit
84.0%
Avg Implied -
66%
18%
16%
covers Stjarnan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan or HK Kopavogur✓ Hit
82.0%
Avg Implied -
66%
18%
16%
covers Stjarnan + HK Kopavogur
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or HK Kopavogur✗ Miss
34.0%
Avg Implied -
66%
18%
16%
covers Draw + HK Kopavogur
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
93.3%
Under
6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
75.2%
Under
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
50.8%
Under
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
28.7%
Under
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.4%
Under
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.1%
Under
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Stjarnan, so a minus line means Stjarnan give that many goals of a start and HK Kopavogur receive them. At -1, Stjarnan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Stjarnan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Stjarnan)Actual: Stjarnan
Stjarnan -2
27.5%
Draw -2
18.7%
HK Kopavogur +2
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Stjarnan)Actual: Stjarnan
Stjarnan -1
46.3%
Draw -1
19.8%
HK Kopavogur +1
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Stjarnan)Actual: Stjarnan
Stjarnan +1
84.0%
Draw +1
9.3%
HK Kopavogur -1
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Stjarnan)Actual: Stjarnan
Stjarnan +2
93.4%
Draw +2
4.5%
HK Kopavogur -2
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stjarnan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.60
1.27
0.87
0.87
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
1.05
0.55
1.30
0.70
0.83
0.42
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.60
1.67
1.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (HK Kopavogur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HK Kopavogur
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.67
1.13
0.53
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.69
1.15
0.54
0.85
0.85
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stjarnan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.20
1.20
0.87
1.13
1.53
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.33
1.50
1.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.23
1.23
1.20
1.00
1.25
1.42
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (HK Kopavogur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HK Kopavogur
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.87
1.40
0.87
0.93
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
1.00
1.00
1.31
1.00
0.69
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →