This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Keflavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.17
2.24
1.12
1.00
1.23
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.68
1.28
2.07
1.21
1.18
1.36
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
3.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.6%
Under 1.5
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
74.3%
Under 2.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.2%
Under 3.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
70.9%
No
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.8%
1-1
8.1%
3-1
7.0%
2-2
6.5%
2-0
6.0%
1-2
5.4%
3-2
5.2%
3-0
4.8%
Stjarnan goals ↓
Keflavik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.8%
2.3%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
1
4.2%
8.1%
5.4%
2.7%
1.0%
2
6.0%
8.8%
6.5%
3.2%
1.2%
3
4.8%
7.0%
5.2%
2.6%
0.9%
4
2.9%
4.2%
3.1%
1.5%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stjarnan goals (down), columns = Keflavik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Breidablik
2.29
Thor Akureyri
2.17
Valur Reykjavik
2.17
Grindavik
2.00
KA Akureyri
2.00
KR Reykjavik
2.00
IR Reykjavik
1.80
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.80
FH hafnarfjordur
1.80
Fjolnir
1.60
Keflavik
1.60
IA Akranes
1.57
Afturelding
1.40
Throttur Reykjavik
1.40
Selfoss
1.35
Fylkir
1.20
Völsungur
1.09
Leiknir R.
1.00
Fram Reykjavik
1.00
HK Kopavogur
0.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.80
Stjarnan
0.60
Njardvik
0.40
Vestri
0.40
Stjarnan is 1.00 points worse than Keflavik in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Valur Reykjavik
3.33
Afturelding
3.20
Breidablik
2.86
Thor Akureyri
2.83
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.80
KR Reykjavik
2.60
IA Akranes
2.43
IR Reykjavik
2.40
Leiknir R.
2.40
Keflavik
2.40
KA Akureyri
2.20
Selfoss
1.93
Fylkir
1.80
Fjolnir
1.80
Grindavik
1.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.80
FH hafnarfjordur
1.60
Fram Reykjavik
1.60
Völsungur
1.55
HK Kopavogur
1.40
Throttur Reykjavik
1.40
Njardvik
1.00
Stjarnan
0.80
Vestri
0.60
Stjarnan is 1.60 goals worse than Keflavik in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 2.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Thor Akureyri
0.67
Breidablik
0.71
KA Akureyri
1.20
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.20
Valur Reykjavik
1.33
IA Akranes
1.57
Fylkir
1.60
Fjolnir
1.60
FH hafnarfjordur
1.60
Vestri
1.60
Throttur Reykjavik
1.80
Fram Reykjavik
1.80
KR Reykjavik
1.80
HK Kopavogur
2.00
Grindavik
2.00
Selfoss
2.01
Leiknir R.
2.20
Keflavik
2.20
Stjarnan
2.20
Völsungur
2.50
IR Reykjavik
2.80
Njardvik
2.80
Afturelding
2.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
3.40
Stjarnan and Keflavik are level in goals conceded per game (both 2.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Stjarnan or Draw✗ Miss
77.8%
Avg Implied -
57%
21%
22%
covers Stjarnan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan or Keflavik✓ Hit
79.4%
Avg Implied -
57%
21%
22%
covers Stjarnan + Keflavik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Keflavik✓ Hit
42.9%
Avg Implied -
57%
21%
22%
covers Draw + Keflavik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
90.9%
Under
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
69.1%
Under
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
42.9%
Under
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
22.0%
Under
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.2%
Under
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
43.5%
Under
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
18.6%
Under
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Stjarnan, so a minus line means Stjarnan give that many goals of a start and Keflavik receive them. At -1, Stjarnan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Stjarnan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Stjarnan)Actual: Keflavik
Stjarnan -2
20.1%
Draw -2
17.0%
Keflavik +2
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Stjarnan)Actual: Keflavik
Stjarnan -1
37.0%
Draw -1
20.1%
Keflavik +1
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Stjarnan)Actual: Keflavik
Stjarnan +1
77.8%
Draw +1
12.1%
Keflavik -1
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Stjarnan)Actual: Keflavik
Stjarnan +2
89.9%
Draw +2
6.5%
Keflavik -2
3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stjarnan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.73
1.00
0.62
0.71
0.82
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.57
1.00
0.43
0.64
0.64
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
1.11
1.00
0.83
1.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Keflavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.50
1.18
0.59
0.69
0.38
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.92
0.52
1.00
0.64
0.82
0.36
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
2.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stjarnan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.93
1.62
0.62
1.12
1.18
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.24
1.14
1.71
1.00
1.00
1.21
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
0.44
1.50
0.17
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Keflavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
1.06
0.53
0.31
0.85
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.76
1.07
0.57
0.36
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
TA (21)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
VES (19)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
TR (19)
€1m
NJA (21)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
IR (17)
€1m
VÖL (19)
€1m
Stjarnan's squad is €2m more valuable than Keflavik's (€3m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
TA (7)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
AFT (5)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
VES (7)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
TR (5)
€0m
NJA (7)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
IR (6)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
VÖL (4)
€0m
Stjarnan and Keflavik have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
TR (6)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
NJA (5)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
VÖL (6)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
IR (4)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
Stjarnan and Keflavik have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
NJA (9)
€0m
LR (9)
€0m
AFT (7)
€0m
FYL (6)
€0m
TR (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
IR (7)
€0m
VÖL (9)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
Stjarnan and Keflavik have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
Iceland: 1. Deild 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →