Stjarnan vs Vestri Result & Analysis

Stjarnan are the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 62 % chance of a home win, 18 % for a draw and 20 % for Vestri to lift the trophy. The high probability reflects Stjarnan’s strong home form - they average three goals scored and only half a goal conceded at home against weaker opposition - while Vestri’s away record is less convincing, conceding 1.67 goals on average against stronger teams. The expected total is 4.6 goals, with the most likely total being 6 + at 31 %. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Stjarnan, with a 7.3 % chance. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 (94.7 %), Home over 0.5 goals (94.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (90.9 %), Under 7.5 (90.8 %), Home +2 handicap (90.4 %), Over 2.5 (83.4 %), Under 6.5 (82.3 %) and Home or Away (82.2 %). The model’s selection of a home win is backed by Stjarnan’s recent victory and their superior home scoring and defensive record, while Vestri’s weaker away performance and higher conceding rate make a draw or away win less likely.

Stjarnan’s win-extending run ended in a 2-2 draw, a shock to the model’s pre-match favourite, Home win, which had a 62 % probability. The prediction proved wrong. The match delivered the expected high-scoring drama, with 4 goals, and the model’s 94.7 % chance of Over 1.5 goals was hit, as were the 94.4 % Home over 0.5 goals, 90.9 % Away under 3.5 goals, 90.8 % Under 7.5, 90.4 % Home +2 handicap, 83.4 % Over 2.5, and 82.3 % Under 6.5 selections. The only miss was the 82.2 % Home or Away pick. The final score of 2-2 confirmed a draw, leaving the model’s favourite incorrect.