Stoke’s recent 1-4 loss to Wolves has left the Potters looking shaky at home, while Norwich’s two-game winning streak, highlighted by a 4-1 triumph over Burnley, suggests the Canaries are in fine form on the road. The model favours an away win, with a 45% chance for Norwich, a 28% chance for Stoke and a 27% chance of a draw. The expected total goals hover at 2.8, with the most likely total being two goals at 25%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13% probability. Stoke averages 1.23 goals scored and 1.54 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Norwich averages 1.71 scored and 1.14 conceded away. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.8%, Under 6.5 goals at 97.4% with a 1% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.3%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.1%, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.4% and Away under 3.5 goals at 93.4%.
Results analysis
Stoke’s win of 1-0 shocked the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick for an away victory with a 46% chance, which proved wrong. The home side, coming off a win, finished with a 27% probability of triumph, while the draw and away win odds were equal at 27% and 46% respectively. The match’s 2-goal total fell short of the expected 2.7, and the most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 13% did not materialise. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 at 99.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.1%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.6%, Under 6.5 at 97.5%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.8%, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.4%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.3%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 93.5%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stoke win✓ Hit
26.9%
Avg Implied 28.1% · @ 3.35
Edge
-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.41
BetVictor
3.40
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.54
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.72
Bet365
3.60
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Norwich win✗ Miss
45.8%
Avg Implied 45.3% · @ 2.08
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.12
Superbet
2.10
SBO
2.08
Betano
2.07
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stoke
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.57
1.35
1.47
0.62
1.69
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.80
1.67
1.67
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.96
1.58
1.23
1.54
0.64
1.64
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Norwich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Norwich
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.10
2.00
1.06
1.71
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.67
1.15
1.62
1.15
1.71
1.14
vs Weaker (3)
3.67
0.67
3.67
0.67
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.1%
@ 1.24+1.7%
Under 1.5
22.9%
@ 3.81-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
4.16
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Superbet
3.90
Betfair
3.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.7%
@ 1.78-1.4%
Under 2.5
48.3%
@ 2.02+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.09
Betano
2.05
SBO
2.05
1xBet
2.03
Superbet
2.02
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.5%
@ 2.91-2.7%
Under 3.5
70.5%
@ 1.39+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.10
Pinnacle
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Betano
3.00
Under
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Superbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
BetVictor
1.39
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.8%
@ 1.64-0.8%
No
44.2%
@ 2.14+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.67
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Betano
1.65
No
Unibet
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Betfair
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Superbet
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%@ 6.33+5.9%
1-2
9.3%@ 8.07+3.8%
0-1
9.0%@ 7.97+3.3%
0-2
8.0%@ 10.19+3.6%
0-0
7.6%@ 10.96+3.5%
2-1
6.9%@ 10.66+2.7%
1-0 ✓
6.3%@ 10.31+1.9%
2-2
5.4%@ 12.07+1.7%
Stoke goals ↓
Norwich goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
9.0%
8.0%
4.2%
1.7%
1
6.3%
13%
9.3%
4.9%
1.9%
2
4.4%
6.9%
5.4%
2.9%
1.1%
3
1.7%
2.7%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stoke goals (down), columns = Norwich goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Stoke is 0.22 points worse than Norwich in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Stoke is 0.26 goals worse than Norwich in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Stoke and Norwich are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Stoke is 1.8 percentage points worse than Norwich in terms of average possession (52% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stoke
For 5.5 · Against 3.2 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 9.4 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Norwich
For 6.2 · Against 3.3 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 11.8 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stoke
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.2
10.6
4.0
4.0
4.1
20.8
21.3
20.3
vs Stronger (8)
9.8
11.0
7.7
3.1
4.0
1.7
19.5
21.0
17.0
vs Similar (41)
10.6
10.2
11.1
4.2
4.0
4.5
21.0
21.1
20.8
vs Weaker (1)
6.0
6.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
25.0
25.0
-
% over line
52%
52%
52%
46%
44%
48%
42%
48%
35%
% under line
48%
48%
48%
54%
56%
52%
58%
52%
65%
This opponent (Norwich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Norwich
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.2
10.5
3.9
3.9
4.0
21.4
21.2
21.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (46)
10.3
10.2
10.4
4.1
4.2
4.0
21.7
21.5
21.8
vs Weaker (4)
10.8
10.0
13.0
2.2
1.7
4.0
18.2
18.7
17.0
% over line
60%
62%
58%
60%
58%
62%
46%
46%
46%
% under line
40%
38%
42%
40%
42%
38%
54%
54%
54%
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.5
West Ham
11.1
Southampton
11.1
Millwall
11.0
Middlesbrough
10.9
Cardiff
10.9
Portsmouth
10.8
Preston
10.6
Blackburn
10.6
Bolton
10.4
Watford
10.4
Stoke
10.4
Norwich
10.3
Birmingham
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Bristol City
10.1
Swansea
10.0
QPR
10.0
Derby
10.0
Charlton
9.7
Burnley
9.6
West Brom
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Lincoln
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Sheffield United
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.0
Norwich
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Bristol City
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
West Ham
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Wolves
3.9
Southampton
3.9
QPR
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
Bolton
3.6
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Millwall
3.5
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.4
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.3
Lincoln
23.0
Derby
22.7
Swansea
22.4
West Ham
22.2
Portsmouth
22.1
Bolton
22.1
Southampton
21.9
Birmingham
21.9
Middlesbrough
21.6
Charlton
21.5
Sheffield United
21.5
Norwich
21.4
Bristol City
21.2
Watford
21.1
West Brom
20.8
Blackburn
20.8
Stoke
20.8
Cardiff
20.8
QPR
20.6
Millwall
20.4
Preston
20.2
Burnley
20.0
Wrexham
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
57.0%
@ 1.89+7.9%
Under 9.5
43.0%
@ 1.82-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Unibet
1.90
Superbet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Betfair
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.6%
@ 1.93+6.5%
Under 3.5
45.4%
@ 1.79-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.02
Unibet
2.00
1xBet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.88
Under
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Superbet
1.78
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
48.9%
@ 1.75-1.1%
Under 21.5
51.1%
@ 1.75+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.75
Under
1xBet
1.75
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Stoke or Draw✓ Hit
60.1%
Avg Implied 54.2% · @ 1.73
Edge
+5.8%
27%
27%
46%
covers Stoke + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.75
SBO
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Stoke or Norwich✓ Hit
72.6%
Avg Implied 73.8% · @ 1.27
Edge
-1.2%
27%
27%
46%
covers Stoke + Norwich
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Draw or Norwich✗ Miss
67.4%
Avg Implied 72.0% · @ 1.30
Edge
-4.6%
27%
27%
46%
covers Draw + Norwich
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Stoke over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.6%
@ 1.33+3.9%
Under
26.4%
@ 3.06-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.26
Bet365
3.25
Unibet
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Betano
3.00
Stoke over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.4%
@ 2.68+3.5%
Under
61.6%
@ 1.43-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.78
Betfair
2.75
Superbet
2.70
BetVictor
2.70
1xBet
2.68
Under
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Stoke over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.0%
@ 6.47+0.7%
Under
85.0%
@ 1.08-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.45
Under
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Stoke over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.6%
@ 15.75-1.4%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.02+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Norwich over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
77.5%
@ 1.20-0.3%
Under
22.5%
@ 4.19+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.28
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.61
BetVictor
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.20
Norwich over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
44.0%
@ 1.96-3.7%
Under
56.0%
@ 1.78+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.03
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.96
Betfair
1.95
Under
1xBet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Betano
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Norwich over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.9%
@ 4.05-4.0%
Under
81.1%
@ 1.21+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.22
Superbet
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
Under
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Norwich over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.5%
@ 8.70-4.2%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.04+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
8.80
Unibet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.40
1xBet
8.10
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Stoke, so a minus line means Stoke give that many goals of a start and Norwich receive them. At -1, Stoke must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Stoke win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Stoke)Actual: Norwich
Stoke -2
5.2%
@ 14.87-0.8%
Draw -2
9.7%
@ 8.34-1.1%
Norwich +2
85.0%
@ 1.08+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
19.00
10Bet
15.00
Superbet
15.00
Unibet
14.00
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
8.60
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
8.00
Away
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Handicap -1 (Stoke)Actual: Draw
Stoke -1
15.0%
@ 6.79+1.8%
Draw -1
17.7%
@ 4.87-0.7%
Norwich +1
67.4%
@ 1.30-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.75
Away
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.25
Handicap +1 (Stoke)Actual: Stoke
Stoke +1
60.1%
@ 1.72+7.9%
Draw +1
19.9%
@ 3.79-3.7%
Norwich -1
20.0%
@ 3.70-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Superbet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.71
Unibet
1.70
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Away
10Bet
3.85
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.65
Superbet
3.60
Handicap +2 (Stoke)Actual: Stoke
Stoke +2
80.0%
@ 1.23+6.7%
Draw +2
12.2%
@ 5.78-3.3%
Norwich -2
7.8%
@ 8.05-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.60
Away
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
8.00
Superbet
7.20
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stoke
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.59
0.41
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.60
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.54
0.54
0.54
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Norwich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Norwich
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.94
0.44
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.56
0.62
0.54
0.50
0.57
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.00
2.33
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.9%
@ 1.34-1.9%
Under 0.5
32.1%
@ 3.09+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Under
Pinnacle
3.29
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.20
Betfair
3.20
10Bet
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.1%
@ 2.58-3.0%
Under 1.5
66.9%
@ 1.46+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.72
Pinnacle
2.67
Bet365
2.62
Unibet
2.60
Superbet
2.60
Under
Superbet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.48
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.46
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.2%
@ 6.26-2.7%
Under 2.5
87.8%
@ 1.09+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.30
Unibet
6.10
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stoke over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
43.2%
@ 2.21+1.1%
Under
56.8%
@ 1.61-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.30
Pinnacle
2.28
Superbet
2.20
Unibet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Under
10Bet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.64
Unibet
1.60
Superbet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
Stoke over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.3%
@ 7.12-1.8%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.07+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.60
Marathonbet
7.40
Superbet
7.10
Betano
7.10
Unibet
7.00
Under
10Bet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Stoke over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 19.25-3.0%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Norwich over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.6%
@ 1.84-7.0%
Under
56.4%
@ 1.89+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.87
Unibet
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Superbet
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.95
10Bet
1.91
1xBet
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Betano
1.87
Norwich over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.0%
@ 5.07-5.2%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.13+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.20
1xBet
5.10
Superbet
5.10
Unibet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Unibet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Norwich over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 13.38-4.7%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stoke
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.03
0.76
1.06
0.23
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.67
1.67
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.50
1.04
0.69
1.00
0.27
1.09
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Norwich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Norwich
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.60
1.06
0.62
1.21
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.11
0.59
1.00
0.62
1.21
0.57
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.67
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
76.4%
@ 1.20-1.1%
Under 0.5
23.6%
@ 4.14+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.25
Betano
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
43.7%
@ 1.97-3.7%
Under 1.5
56.3%
@ 1.78+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
Under
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.78
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.6%
@ 4.01-4.6%
Under 2.5
81.4%
@ 1.21+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.20
William Hil
4.20
10Bet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Under
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stoke over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.7%
@ 1.86+0.9%
Under
49.3%
@ 1.84-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Under
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.84
Superbet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Stoke over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.1%
@ 5.32-3.2%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.12+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.50
1xBet
5.40
Superbet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.30
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Stoke over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 14.00-3.6%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Norwich over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
54.4%
@ 1.62-3.0%
Under
45.6%
@ 2.18+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.77
Superbet
1.60
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Under
1xBet
2.30
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.20
Marathonbet
1.92
Norwich over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.3%
@ 3.72-6.6%
Under
81.7%
@ 1.23+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.90
Superbet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.72
1xBet
3.60
Betano
3.55
Under
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Norwich over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 9.33-5.3%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.03+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.4%
1.02
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.5%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.3%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.02
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.7%
1.07
10Bet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.8%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.0%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Unibet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.9%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
85.0%
1.08
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
84.4%
1.13
Pinnacle
1.16
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.7%
1.23
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.4%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
81.1%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
80.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.5%
1.20
Marathonbet
1.28
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
-0.3%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
77.1%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+1.7%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.4%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-1.1%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
74.6%
1.41
Unibet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.41
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.36
-
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
73.6%
1.33
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.6%
1.27
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.28
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.5%
1.39
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Superbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
BetVictor
1.39
+2.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Stoke
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Róbert Boženík33%
Ethan Galbraith33%
Eric Bocat20%
S. Gallagher17%
G. Hirst0%
Sorba Thomas0%
B. Johnson0%
B. Wilmot0%
Svante Ingelsson0%
Maksym Talovierov0%
V. Johansson0%
M. Manhoef0%
T. Rigo0%
Bosun Lawal0%
Luke Graham0%
Jun-Ho Bae0%
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bosun Lawal50%
Jun-Ho Bae40%
S. Gallagher33%
Svante Ingelsson33%
Maksym Talovierov33%
Ethan Galbraith33%
G. Hirst25%
Luke Graham25%
Sorba Thomas20%
B. Johnson0%
B. Wilmot0%
Róbert Boženík0%
V. Johansson0%
Eric Bocat0%
M. Manhoef0%
T. Rigo0%
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
T. Rigo25%
Sorba Thomas20%
Jun-Ho Bae20%
S. Gallagher17%
G. Hirst0%
B. Johnson0%
B. Wilmot0%
Svante Ingelsson0%
Róbert Boženík0%
Maksym Talovierov0%
Ethan Galbraith0%
V. Johansson0%
Eric Bocat0%
M. Manhoef0%
Bosun Lawal0%
Luke Graham0%
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Gallagher33%
T. Rigo25%
G. Hirst0%
Sorba Thomas0%
B. Johnson0%
B. Wilmot0%
Svante Ingelsson0%
Róbert Boženík0%
Maksym Talovierov0%
Ethan Galbraith0%
V. Johansson0%
Eric Bocat0%
M. Manhoef0%
Bosun Lawal0%
Luke Graham0%
Jun-Ho Bae0%
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré0%
Norwich
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
M. Touré40%
M. Kvistgaarden40%
Andre Brooks33%
Ben Chrisene20%
Anis Ben Slimane17%
P. Mattsson0%
H. Darling0%
K. McLean0%
S. Field0%
J. Stacey0%
Anthony Musaba0%
José Córdoba0%
Vladan Kovačević0%
Ruairi McConville0%
K. Fisher0%
O. Schwartau0%
Jacob Wright0%
P. Diallo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
José Córdoba80%
K. McLean40%
Andre Brooks33%
H. Darling25%
Ruairi McConville25%
J. Stacey20%
P. Mattsson17%
Anis Ben Slimane17%
S. Field0%
Anthony Musaba0%
Vladan Kovačević0%
Ben Chrisene0%
M. Touré0%
M. Kvistgaarden0%
K. Fisher0%
O. Schwartau0%
Jacob Wright0%
P. Diallo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Stacey40%
Anthony Musaba25%
K. McLean20%
José Córdoba20%
M. Touré20%
Jacob Wright20%
Andre Brooks17%
P. Mattsson0%
H. Darling0%
S. Field0%
Vladan Kovačević0%
Ben Chrisene0%
Anis Ben Slimane0%
M. Kvistgaarden0%
Ruairi McConville0%
K. Fisher0%
O. Schwartau0%
P. Diallo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Touré40%
K. Fisher33%
H. Darling25%
Anthony Musaba25%
K. McLean20%
O. Schwartau17%
Andre Brooks17%
P. Mattsson0%
S. Field0%
J. Stacey0%
José Córdoba0%
Vladan Kovačević0%
Ben Chrisene0%
Anis Ben Slimane0%
M. Kvistgaarden0%
Ruairi McConville0%
Jacob Wright0%
P. Diallo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Stoke's squad is €28m less valuable than Norwich's (€79m vs €107m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Stoke's attack is €11m less valuable than Norwich's (€35m vs €46m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Stoke's midfield is €20m less valuable than Norwich's (€11m vs €31m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Stoke's defence is €3m more valuable than Norwich's (€32m vs €29m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Portsmouth
Burnley
Preston