Stranraer are tipped to take the win, with a 46% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 26% chance of an Annan Athletic win. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals on average, and the most likely total is 2 goals, with a 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.3% chance. Stranraer, playing at home against a stronger opponent, average 0.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Annan Athletic, on the road, have similar figures against this tier. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 83.4%, Over 19.5 fouls at 78.6%, Over 1.5 goals at 75.3%, Under 3.5 corners at 72.7% and Over 2.5 cards at 71.0%. The model’s selection favours a home win.
Results analysis
The win extends Stranraer's recent run, as they finished their last match 2-0 against Kelty Hearts. The model favoured a home win with a 46% probability, and the result matched that call. The final score was 2-0, confirming the actual result of a home victory. The model’s selections performed strongly: Under 5.5 cards hit at 83.4%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 78.6%, Over 1.5 hit at 75.3%, Under 3.5 hit at 72.7%, and Over 2.5 cards hit at 71.0%. All five picks settled, and every probability was expressed as a percentage.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stranraer win✓ Hit
46.0%
Avg Implied 58.1% · @ 1.58
Edge
-12.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied 22.6% · @ 4.06
Edge
+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied 19.3% · @ 4.75
Edge
+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.73
1.14
1.50
1.31
1.94
vs Stronger (23)
1.09
1.78
0.90
1.50
1.23
2.00
vs Similar (7)
1.71
1.57
1.75
1.50
1.67
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.87
1.53
1.87
0.80
1.87
vs Stronger (19)
1.47
1.84
2.22
1.67
0.80
2.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
2.00
0.40
2.40
0.80
1.60
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.3%
Under 1.5
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.2%
@ 1.62-8.5%
Under 2.5
50.8%
@ 2.21+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.3%
Under 3.5
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.8%
No
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.3%
2-0 ✓
8.4%
0-0
8.3%
1-2
6.7%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
5.1%
Stranraer goals ↓
Annan Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
6.7%
4.4%
1.6%
0.4%
1
9.7%
13%
6.7%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.4%
9.3%
5.1%
1.9%
0.5%
3
4.3%
4.8%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.6%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stranraer goals (down), columns = Annan Athletic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Queens Park
2.45
Stranraer
1.73
Edinburgh City
1.73
Elgin
1.73
Stirling
1.64
Stenhousemuir
1.18
Albion Rvs
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.00
Cowdenbeath
0.95
Brechin
0.45
Stranraer is 0.73 points better than Annan Athletic in terms of average points per game (1.73 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Queens Park
1.95
Edinburgh City
1.82
Elgin
1.77
Stranraer
1.64
Stirling
1.45
Annan Athletic
1.14
Stenhousemuir
1.14
Albion Rvs
1.14
Cowdenbeath
0.68
Brechin
0.59
Stranraer is 0.50 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Queens Park
0.59
Stirling
1.00
Stranraer
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.23
Edinburgh City
1.23
Elgin
1.27
Cowdenbeath
1.45
Stenhousemuir
1.59
Albion Rvs
1.73
Brechin
2.09
Stranraer is 0.09 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.23).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stranraer
For 6.2 · Against 4.0 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 13.7 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
For 4.3 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 13.3 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.1
9.8
3.1
3.1
3.0
21.0
21.9
20.1
vs Stronger (37)
10.1
9.8
10.4
3.2
3.3
3.1
21.2
22.6
19.8
vs Similar (13)
9.5
11.0
8.3
2.8
2.5
3.0
20.3
19.7
20.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
60%
40%
42%
36%
48%
44%
44%
44%
% under line
50%
40%
60%
58%
64%
52%
56%
56%
56%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.3
10.2
3.8
4.0
3.6
24.7
26.8
22.5
vs Stronger (33)
10.0
8.9
10.9
3.8
4.0
3.7
24.8
27.6
22.4
vs Similar (14)
9.4
10.0
8.7
3.6
4.0
3.2
24.4
25.6
22.8
vs Weaker (3)
8.3
9.5
6.0
3.7
3.5
4.0
25.0
26.0
23.0
% over line
50%
48%
52%
54%
52%
56%
72%
84%
60%
% under line
50%
52%
48%
46%
48%
44%
28%
16%
40%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.9
Brechin
10.7
Albion Rvs
10.6
Stenhousemuir
10.3
Elgin
10.1
Queens Park
10.0
Stranraer
10.0
Cowdenbeath
10.0
Annan Athletic
9.7
Edinburgh City
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cowdenbeath
4.4
Stenhousemuir
4.1
Elgin
4.0
Edinburgh City
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.8
Queens Park
3.8
Stirling
3.7
Brechin
3.4
Albion Rvs
3.2
Stranraer
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Annan Athletic
24.7
Cowdenbeath
23.9
Edinburgh City
23.1
Albion Rvs
22.9
Queens Park
22.7
Stirling
22.2
Elgin
21.7
Stenhousemuir
21.4
Stranraer
21.0
Brechin
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.1%
Under 9.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
50.1%
Under 3.5
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
64.1%
Under 21.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.29
0.57
0.56
0.75
vs Stronger (23)
0.35
0.65
0.10
0.40
0.54
0.85
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.71
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.73
0.80
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (19)
0.74
0.89
1.11
0.56
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (10)
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.20
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.07
0.86
0.93
0.75
1.19
vs Stronger (23)
0.74
1.13
0.80
1.10
0.69
1.15
vs Similar (7)
1.00
0.86
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.80
1.07
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (19)
0.74
0.95
1.11
1.11
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (10)
0.40
1.00
0.40
1.20
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Stranraer and Annan Athletic have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Stranraer and Annan Athletic have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Stranraer and Annan Athletic have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Queens Park
Edinburgh City
Elgin
Stirling
Stenhousemuir
Cowdenbeath
Brechin