PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Sumqayıt II vs Mingəçevir Result & Analysis

Date: 29/03/2023
Time: 11:00
Final 3-0
Sumqayıt II
Sumqayıt II
Vs
41%
27%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sumqayıt II win✓ Hit
41.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir win✗ Miss
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Sumqayıt IISumqayıt II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L02L23L12L13L13L11D14L13L01LA·ZAQ09/11H·QAR30/11A·IMI06/12A·KEŞ10/12A·KAP17/12A·ZIR15/02H·TUR21/02A·FK 02/03H·ARA08/03H·MOI14/03
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.002.160.861.711.082.42
vs Stronger (12)1.002.251.002.001.002.43
vs Similar (5)1.002.000.501.001.332.67
vs Weaker (2)1.002.00--1.002.00
Clean sheet %11% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W23L02L03L12L22D01L02L11D13LH·ARA08/11A·MOI01/12H·QAR10/12A·SƏB17/12A·NEF08/02H·ZAQ15/02A·QAR22/02H·IMI01/03H·KAP13/03A·KEŞ24/03
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.102.101.102.001.102.20
vs Stronger (18)1.062.111.002.001.112.22
vs Similar (2)1.502.002.002.001.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.5%
Under 1.5
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.7%
Under 2.5
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.4%
Under 3.5
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.1%
No
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.0%
1-0
7.9%
1-2
7.6%
0-0
7.1%
2-0
6.9%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
5.8%
Sumqayıt II goals ↓
Mingəçevir goals →
01234
07.1%6.5%5.0%2.2%0.7%
17.9%13%7.6%3.3%1.1%
26.9%9.0%5.8%2.5%0.8%
33.5%4.6%3.0%1.3%0.4%
41.3%1.7%1.1%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sumqayıt II goals (down), columns = Mingəçevir goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Araz
2.46
Neftçi II
2.11
Turan II
1.71
Zaqatala
1.57
Səbail II
1.57
FK Qəbələ II
1.57
MOIK
1.54
Kapaz II
1.54
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.46
Keşlə II
1.32
Qarabağ II
1.11
Zira II
1.11
Sumqayıt II
0.79
Imisli FK
0.71
Mingəçevir
0.61
Sumqayıt II is 0.18 points better than Mingəçevir in terms of average points per game (0.79 vs 0.61).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Araz
2.46
Neftçi II
2.39
Zaqatala
1.75
Turan II
1.75
Səbail II
1.64
FK Qəbələ II
1.61
MOIK
1.54
Kapaz II
1.46
Keşlə II
1.43
Sumqayıt II
1.29
Qarabağ II
1.14
Zira II
1.11
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.07
Mingəçevir
0.93
Imisli FK
0.75
Sumqayıt II is 0.36 goals better than Mingəçevir in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 0.93).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Araz
0.79
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.82
FK Qəbələ II
1.00
Neftçi II
1.14
Kapaz II
1.29
Turan II
1.32
Zira II
1.36
Qarabağ II
1.39
MOIK
1.50
Səbail II
1.57
Zaqatala
1.71
Mingəçevir
1.93
Keşlə II
2.00
Sumqayıt II
2.14
Imisli FK
2.36
Sumqayıt II is 0.21 goals worse than Mingəçevir in terms of goals conceded per game (2.14 vs 1.93).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Sumqayıt IISumqayıt II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D02L01L11D02L00D02L01L00DA·ZAQ09/11H·QAR30/11A·IMI06/12A·KEŞ10/12A·KAP17/12A·ZIR15/02H·TUR21/02A·FK 02/03H·ARA08/03H·MOI14/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.321.000.290.430.331.33
vs Stronger (12)0.331.000.400.600.291.29
vs Similar (5)0.001.000.000.000.001.67
vs Weaker (2)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %26% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W13L00D02L10W10W00D01L01L00DH·ARA08/11A·MOI01/12H·QAR10/12A·SƏB17/12A·NEF08/02H·ZAQ15/02A·QAR22/02H·IMI01/03H·KAP13/03A·KEŞ24/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.650.800.600.700.700.90
vs Stronger (18)0.610.830.560.780.670.89
vs Similar (2)1.000.501.000.001.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %45% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sumqayıt II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Sumqayıt IISumqayıt II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L02L21W11D02L11D11D12L12L01LA·ZAQ09/11H·QAR30/11A·IMI06/12A·KEŞ10/12A·KAP17/12A·ZIR15/02H·TUR21/02A·FK 02/03H·ARA08/03H·MOI14/03
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.681.160.571.290.751.08
vs Stronger (12)0.671.250.601.400.711.14
vs Similar (5)1.001.000.501.001.331.00
vs Weaker (2)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %21% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W02L01L02L12L01L01L10W13LH·ARA08/11A·MOI01/12H·QAR10/12A·SƏB17/12A·NEF08/02H·ZAQ15/02A·QAR22/02H·IMI01/03H·KAP13/03A·KEŞ24/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.451.300.501.300.401.30
vs Stronger (18)0.441.280.441.220.441.33
vs Similar (2)0.501.501.002.000.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sumqayıt II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARA (5)
€2m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
SI wins
1
Draws
0
MIN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Sumqayıt II vs Mingəçevir · H/A from SI
DateH/AGameScore
11/10/22AMingəçevir Vs SI1-1

Sumqayıt IISumqayıt II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/03/23HSI Vs MOIK0-1
08/03/23HSI Vs Araz1-3
02/03/23AFK Qəbələ II Vs SI4-1
21/02/23HSI Vs Turan II1-1
15/02/23AZira II Vs SI3-1
17/12/22AKapaz II Vs SI3-1
10/12/22AKeşlə II Vs SI2-1
06/12/22AImisli FK Vs SI3-2
30/11/22HSI Vs Qarabağ II0-2
09/11/22AZaqatala Vs SI3-1

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/03/23AKeşlə II Vs MIN3-1
13/03/23HMIN Vs Kapaz II1-1
01/03/23HMIN Vs Imisli FK0-2
22/02/23AQarabağ II Vs MIN1-0
15/02/23HMIN Vs Zaqatala2-2
08/02/23ANeftçi II Vs MIN2-1
17/12/22ASəbail II Vs MIN3-0
10/12/22HMIN Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan0-2
01/12/22AMOIK Vs MIN3-2
08/11/22HMIN Vs Araz1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Sumqayıt II
Sumqayıt II
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL0.53
HomeLLDLL0.57
AwayLLLLL0.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %11%14%8%
AVG goals3.162.573.50
Over 1.5 %84%71%92%
Over 2.5 %68%43%83%
Over 3.5 %53%29%67%
Scored1.000.861.08
Conceded2.161.712.42
BTTS68%57%75%
Clean Sheet11%14%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLDL0.60
HomeWLDLD0.90
AwayLLLLL0.30
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %15%20%10%
AVG goals3.203.103.30
Over 1.5 %85%90%80%
Over 2.5 %65%50%80%
Over 3.5 %40%40%40%
Scored1.101.101.10
Conceded2.102.002.20
BTTS45%50%40%
Clean Sheet10%10%10%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ArazAraz2869
79%
2.5
6922+47
3.2
89%
64%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3222.50.8
-
2Neftçi IINeftçi II2859
64%
2.1
6732+35
3.5
89%
68%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.1
-
3Turan IITuran II2848
54%
1.7
4937+12
3.1
82%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.3
-
4FK Qəbələ IIFK Qəbələ II2844
43%
1.6
4528+17
2.6
71%
39%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
5Səbail IISəbail II2844
46%
1.6
4644+2
3.2
86%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.6
-
6ZaqatalaZaqatala2844
46%
1.6
4948+1
3.5
96%
71%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
7Kapaz IIKapaz II2843
46%
1.5
4136+5
2.8
75%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
8MOIKMOIK2843
43%
1.5
4342+1
3.0
82%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
9Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2841
43%
1.5
3023+7
1.9
50%
32%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.8
-
10Keşlə IIKeşlə II2837
39%
1.3
4056-16
3.4
79%
68%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
11Qarabağ IIQarabağ II2831
32%
1.1
3239-7
2.5
68%
46%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
12Zira IIZira II2831
25%
1.1
3138-7
2.5
75%
54%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
13Sumqayıt IISumqayıt II2822
21%
0.8
3660-24
3.4
86%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
14Imisli FKImisli FK2820
21%
0.7
2166-45
3.1
82%
57%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3130.82.4
-
15MingəçevirMingəçevir2817
14%
0.6
2654-28
2.9
82%
54%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

← all matches