Auda are tipped to win, with the model assigning a 59% chance to an away victory, 26% for a draw and 15% for a Super Nova win. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly open game, and the most probable scoreline is 0-1, a 14% chance that Auda will edge the match by a single goal. Super Nova, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 3.5 conceded, while Auda, on the road to a weaker side, averages 1.17 scored and only 0.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 goals at 77.7% and Over 1.5 goals at 70.4%. The home win probability sits at 15%, the draw at 26% and the away win at 59%. Each of these figures is presented once, and no other outcomes are mentioned.
Results analysis
The match saw Super Nova’s recent draw streak continue, but Auda’s away form, still riding a win, proved decisive. The final score was 0-2, an away win that matched the model’s pick. The model had chosen “Away win” with a 59% probability, and it was correct. Its suggested selections also delivered: “Under 3.5” hit at 77.7% confidence, and “Over 1.5” hit at 70.4%. The most likely total was 2 goals, a 27% chance, and the 0-1 and 0-2 outcomes were close contenders. Overall, the model’s predictions lined up with the on-field reality.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Super Nova win✗ Miss
15.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Auda win✓ Hit
58.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Super Nova
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
2.37
1.00
2.71
0.62
2.06
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
3.00
1.00
3.50
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (14)
0.86
1.64
1.00
1.67
0.75
1.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Auda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.87
1.47
1.00
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.14
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (10)
1.10
1.10
1.20
1.40
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (13)
1.69
0.54
2.14
0.71
1.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.4%
Under 1.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.2%
Under 2.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.3%
Under 3.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.4%
No
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.0%
0-2 ✓
12.6%
1-1
12.2%
0-0
10.1%
1-2
9.3%
0-3
7.0%
1-0
5.5%
1-3
5.2%
Super Nova goals ↓
Auda goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
14%
13%
7.0%
2.9%
1
5.5%
12%
9.3%
5.2%
2.2%
2
2.4%
4.1%
3.4%
1.9%
0.8%
3
0.6%
1.0%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Super Nova goals (down), columns = Auda goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.47
Riga
2.44
Auda
1.61
Valmiera / BSS
1.47
FK Liepaja
1.42
FS Jelgava
1.11
Metta / LU
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Super Nova
0.39
Skanste
0.00
Super Nova is 1.22 points worse than Auda in terms of average points per game (0.39 vs 1.61).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.67
Riga
2.47
FK Liepaja
1.44
Valmiera / BSS
1.31
Tukums
1.31
Metta / LU
1.29
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.11
Skanste
1.00
Super Nova
0.69
Super Nova is 0.53 goals worse than Auda in terms of goals scored per game (0.69 vs 1.22).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rīgas FS
0.50
Riga
0.58
Auda
1.08
Valmiera / BSS
1.11
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
FK Liepaja
1.50
FS Jelgava
1.58
Metta / LU
1.71
Tukums
2.31
Super Nova
2.67
Skanste
4.00
Super Nova is 1.58 goals worse than Auda in terms of goals conceded per game (2.67 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Super Nova
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.90
0.57
0.93
0.31
0.88
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
1.06
0.62
1.12
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.71
0.50
0.67
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Auda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.37
0.73
0.40
0.27
0.33
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.70
0.40
0.80
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (13)
0.85
0.31
1.14
0.29
0.50
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Super Nova
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.47
0.43
1.79
0.31
1.19
vs Stronger (16)
0.31
1.94
0.38
2.38
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.93
0.50
1.00
0.38
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Auda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.73
0.60
0.53
0.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.00
1.14
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.40
0.80
0.60
0.80
0.20
vs Weaker (13)
0.85
0.23
1.00
0.43
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
Super Nova's squad is €3m less valuable than Auda's (€3m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
Super Nova's attack is €2m less valuable than Auda's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
Super Nova and Auda have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
Super Nova's defence is €2m less valuable than Auda's (€1m vs €3m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rīgas FS
Riga
Valmiera / BSS
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
Metta / LU
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
Skanste