PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Super Nova vs FK Liepaja Result & Analysis

Date: 28/04/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 2-6
Super Nova
Super Nova
Vs
11%
19%
69%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Super Nova win✗ Miss
11.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja win✓ Hit
69.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-616L11D02L20W03L02L03L10W04L12LH·VAL06/11A·MET12/11A·AUD11/03H·TUK19/03A·BFC01/04A·FS 05/04H·MET11/04H·VAL16/04H·RIG20/04A·RĪG24/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.732.270.862.500.622.06
vs Stronger (16)0.622.810.753.120.502.50
vs Similar (14)0.861.641.001.670.751.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W00D02L10W03L02L32W11D30W10WH·TUK30/10A·RĪG06/11H·VAL12/11A·VAL18/03H·RIG01/04A·RĪG05/04H·FS 09/04H·AUD14/04A·TUK18/04H·BFC23/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.271.811.191.291.36
vs Stronger (8)0.121.620.251.500.001.75
vs Similar (11)1.360.821.330.831.400.80
vs Weaker (11)2.821.453.331.332.201.60
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.0%
Under 1.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.9%
Under 2.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.5%
Under 3.5
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.2%
No
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.4%
1-2
9.6%
1-1
9.2%
0-1
9.1%
0-3
8.7%
1-3
7.4%
0-0
5.1%
0-4
5.0%
Super Nova goals ↓
FK Liepaja goals →
01234
05.1%9.1%11%8.7%5.0%
12.8%9.2%9.6%7.4%4.3%
21.5%3.5%4.1%3.1%1.8%
30.4%1.0%1.1%0.9%0.5%
40.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Super Nova goals (down), columns = FK Liepaja goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.47
Riga
2.44
Auda
1.61
Valmiera / BSS
1.47
FK Liepaja
1.42
FS Jelgava
1.11
Metta / LU
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Super Nova
0.39
Skanste
0.00
Super Nova is 1.03 points worse than FK Liepaja in terms of average points per game (0.39 vs 1.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.67
Riga
2.47
FK Liepaja
1.44
Valmiera / BSS
1.31
Tukums
1.31
Metta / LU
1.29
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.11
Skanste
1.00
Super Nova
0.69
Super Nova is 0.75 goals worse than FK Liepaja in terms of goals scored per game (0.69 vs 1.44).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Rīgas FS
0.50
Riga
0.58
Auda
1.08
Valmiera / BSS
1.11
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
FK Liepaja
1.50
FS Jelgava
1.58
Metta / LU
1.71
Tukums
2.31
Super Nova
2.67
Skanste
4.00
Super Nova is 1.17 goals worse than FK Liepaja in terms of goals conceded per game (2.67 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Super NovaSuper Nova

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L02L10W01L00D02L10W02L11DH·VAL06/11A·MET12/11A·AUD11/03H·TUK19/03A·BFC01/04A·FS 05/04H·MET11/04H·VAL16/04H·RIG20/04A·RĪG24/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.900.500.930.310.88
vs Stronger (16)0.381.060.501.120.251.00
vs Similar (14)0.430.710.500.670.380.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D00D10W03L00D12L10W20W00DH·TUK30/10A·RĪG06/11H·VAL12/11A·VAL18/03H·RIG01/04A·RĪG05/04H·FS 09/04H·AUD14/04A·TUK18/04H·BFC23/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.530.750.440.500.64
vs Stronger (8)0.000.880.001.000.000.75
vs Similar (11)0.640.270.500.170.800.40
vs Weaker (11)1.090.551.500.330.600.80
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Super NovaSuper Nova

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L10W00D10W02L02L01L00D02L01LH·VAL06/11A·MET12/11A·AUD11/03H·TUK19/03A·BFC01/04A·FS 05/04H·MET11/04H·VAL16/04H·RIG20/04A·RĪG24/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.331.370.361.570.311.19
vs Stronger (16)0.251.750.252.000.251.50
vs Similar (14)0.430.930.501.000.380.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W00D02L00D00D02L20W01L10W10WH·TUK30/10A·RĪG06/11H·VAL12/11A·VAL18/03H·RIG01/04A·RĪG05/04H·FS 09/04H·AUD14/04A·TUK18/04H·BFC23/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.731.060.750.790.71
vs Stronger (8)0.120.750.250.500.001.00
vs Similar (11)0.730.550.830.670.600.40
vs Weaker (11)1.730.911.831.001.600.80
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
Super Nova's squad is €2m less valuable than FK Liepaja's (€3m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
Super Nova's attack is €1m less valuable than FK Liepaja's (€1m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
Super Nova and FK Liepaja have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
Super Nova's defence is €1m less valuable than FK Liepaja's (€1m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
SN wins
1
Draws
3
FL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Super Nova vs FK Liepaja · H/A from SN
DateH/AGameScore
11/09/22HSN Vs FK Liepaja2-2
27/06/22AFK Liepaja Vs SN2-0
02/05/22HSN Vs FK Liepaja1-3
11/03/22AFK Liepaja Vs SN3-1

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/04/23ARīgas FS Vs SN2-1
20/04/23HSN Vs Riga0-4
16/04/23HSN Vs Valmiera / BSS1-0
11/04/23HSN Vs Metta / LU0-3
05/04/23AFS Jelgava Vs SN2-0
01/04/23ABFC Daugavpils Vs SN3-0
19/03/23HSN Vs Tukums2-0
11/03/23AAuda Vs SN2-0
12/11/22AMetta / LU Vs SN1-1
06/11/22HSN Vs Valmiera / BSS1-6

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/04/23HFL Vs BFC Daugavpils1-0
18/04/23ATukums Vs FL0-3
14/04/23HFL Vs Auda1-1
09/04/23HFL Vs FS Jelgava3-2
05/04/23ARīgas FS Vs FL2-0
01/04/23HFL Vs Riga0-3
18/03/23AValmiera / BSS Vs FL0-1
12/11/22HFL Vs Valmiera / BSS0-2
06/11/22ARīgas FS Vs FL0-0
30/10/22HFL Vs Tukums4-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Super Nova
Super Nova
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL0.59
HomeLWLWL0.68
AwayDLLLL0.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%18%9%
AVG goals2.843.052.64
Over 1.5 %77%73%82%
Over 2.5 %52%68%36%
Over 3.5 %32%41%23%
Scored0.640.680.59
Conceded2.202.362.05
BTTS41%41%41%
Clean Sheet14%23%5%
Corners---
Cards---
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWW1.83
HomeLLWDW1.79
AwayWDWLW1.87
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %55%54%57%
AVG goals2.982.963.00
Over 1.5 %74%71%78%
Over 2.5 %60%54%65%
Over 3.5 %38%38%39%
Scored1.791.791.78
Conceded1.191.171.22
BTTS53%58%48%
Clean Sheet30%29%30%
Corners9.5010.508.50
Cards4.004.503.50

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS3689
75%
2.5
9618+78
3.2
69%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.70.5
-
2RigaRiga3688
75%
2.4
8921+68
3.1
81%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.50.6
-
3AudaAuda3658
44%
1.6
4439+5
2.3
72%
33%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.21.1
-
4Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3653
39%
1.5
4740+7
2.4
67%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
5FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3651
39%
1.4
5254-2
2.9
89%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.5
-
6FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3640
28%
1.1
4257-15
2.8
75%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.6
-
7Metta / LUMetta / LU3839
26%
1.0
4965-16
3.0
76%
53%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
8BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3636
25%
1.0
4052-12
2.6
69%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.4
-
9TukumsTukums3635
25%
1.0
4783-36
3.6
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.32.3
-
10Super NovaSuper Nova3614
8%
0.4
2596-71
3.4
86%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.72.7
-
11SkansteSkanste20
0%
0.0
28-6
5.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.04.0
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

← all matches