Sutton’s recent four-game winning streak and a 1-0 victory over Gateshead give them a slight edge, yet the odds show a finely balanced contest with a 39% chance of a home win, 26% for a draw and 35% for an Aldershot triumph. The model favours a home win, predicting an average of three goals and a most likely 1-1 scoreline at 12.2%. Sutton typically scores one goal and concedes 1.57 against similar opposition, while Aldershot averages 1.45 scored and 1.55 conceded on the road.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.7%), Under 6.5 (96.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.6%), Under 5.5 (91.2%), Home +2 handicap (83.1%), Over 1.5 (81.7%), and Away under 2.5 goals (81.6%). Each pick is presented with its probability, and no other outcome is highlighted. This balanced picture leaves the match open, with Sutton’s form giving them the slight advantage in a tightly contested fixture.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sutton win
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aldershot win
37.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sutton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.43
0.93
1.60
1.27
1.27
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
1.14
1.45
0.93
1.60
1.36
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aldershot
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.47
1.27
1.87
1.53
1.07
vs Stronger (10)
1.10
1.20
0.67
1.50
1.75
0.75
vs Similar (20)
1.55
1.60
1.67
2.11
1.45
1.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.5%
Under 1.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.5%
Under 2.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.1%
Under 3.5
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.6%
No
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.3%
0-1
6.6%
1-0
6.5%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
6.2%
0-2
5.8%
Sutton goals ↓
Aldershot goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
6.6%
5.8%
2.8%
1.1%
1
6.5%
13%
8.4%
4.2%
1.5%
2
5.6%
8.3%
6.2%
3.1%
1.1%
3
2.8%
4.1%
3.0%
1.5%
0.6%
4
1.0%
1.5%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sutton goals (down), columns = Aldershot goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Fylde
1.38
Kidderminster
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Sutton is 0.02 points better than Aldershot in terms of average points per game (1.02 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Woking
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Fylde
1.45
Kidderminster
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Hartlepool
1.17
Gateshead
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Sutton is 0.22 goals worse than Aldershot in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Carlisle
1.11
Forest Green
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Sutton is 0.17 goals better than Aldershot in terms of goals conceded per game (1.72 vs 1.89).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Sutton is 0.6 percentage points better than Aldershot in terms of average possession (54% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sutton or Draw
63.0%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers Sutton + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sutton or Aldershot
73.2%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers Sutton + Aldershot
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Aldershot
63.8%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers Draw + Aldershot
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sutton over/under 0.5
Over
76.9%
Under
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 1.5
Over
43.1%
Under
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 2.5
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 3.5
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 0.5
Over
77.3%
Under
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5
Over
43.7%
Under
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 3.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sutton, so a minus line means Sutton give that many goals of a start and Aldershot receive them. At -1, Sutton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sutton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sutton)
Sutton -2
6.7%
Draw -2
11.0%
Aldershot +2
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sutton)
Sutton -1
17.7%
Draw -1
18.5%
Aldershot +1
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sutton)
Sutton +1
63.0%
Draw +1
18.8%
Aldershot -1
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sutton)
Sutton +2
81.8%
Draw +2
11.3%
Aldershot -2
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sutton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.70
0.53
0.73
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
0.45
0.69
0.53
0.73
0.36
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aldershot
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.80
1.13
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.90
0.67
1.00
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.80
0.89
1.22
0.36
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sutton over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sutton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.40
0.87
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
0.69
0.76
0.40
0.87
1.00
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aldershot
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.63
0.47
0.73
1.20
0.53
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.30
0.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.80
0.78
0.89
1.09
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sutton over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
SCU (2)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Sutton and Aldershot have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Sutton and Aldershot have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Sutton and Aldershot have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Sutton and Aldershot have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →
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Yeovil
Boreham Wood
Harrogate
Southend
Eastleigh
Boston Utd
Halifax
Hartlepool
Altrincham
Carlisle
Wealdstone
Scunthorpe
Woking
Gateshead
Forest Green
Barrow
Tamworth
Solihull