This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carlisle
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.23
1.20
1.07
1.13
1.40
vs Stronger (23)
1.04
1.17
1.08
1.08
1.00
1.27
vs Similar (7)
1.57
1.43
1.67
1.00
1.50
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.9%
Under 1.5
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
37.7%
@ 2.32-3.0%
Under 2.5
62.3%
@ 1.59+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
18.0%
Under 3.5
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.8%
No
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
12.4%
1-0
10.9%
0-1
10.8%
2-1
7.4%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
6.7%
0-2
6.7%
Sutton goals ↓
Carlisle goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
6.7%
2.4%
0.7%
1
11%
15%
7.4%
2.7%
0.7%
2
6.7%
7.4%
4.1%
1.5%
0.4%
3
2.5%
2.7%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.7%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sutton goals (down), columns = Carlisle goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Exeter
1.83
Forest Green
1.83
Bristol Rvs
1.74
Northampton
1.74
Port Vale
1.70
Swindon
1.67
Mansfield
1.67
Sutton
1.65
Tranmere
1.63
Salford
1.52
Newport County
1.50
Crawley Town
1.33
Leyton Orient
1.26
Bradford
1.26
Colchester
1.20
Walsall
1.17
Hartlepool
1.17
Carlisle
1.15
Rochdale
1.15
Harrogate
1.15
Stevenage
1.02
Barrow
0.96
Oldham
0.83
Scunthorpe
0.57
Sutton is 0.50 points better than Carlisle in terms of average points per game (1.65 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Swindon
1.67
Forest Green
1.63
Bristol Rvs
1.54
Sutton
1.50
Newport County
1.46
Port Vale
1.46
Mansfield
1.46
Exeter
1.41
Harrogate
1.39
Leyton Orient
1.35
Salford
1.30
Northampton
1.30
Crawley Town
1.22
Tranmere
1.15
Bradford
1.15
Rochdale
1.11
Colchester
1.04
Walsall
1.02
Oldham
1.00
Stevenage
0.98
Hartlepool
0.96
Barrow
0.96
Carlisle
0.85
Scunthorpe
0.63
Sutton is 0.65 goals better than Carlisle in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 0.85).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Northampton
0.83
Tranmere
0.87
Exeter
0.89
Forest Green
0.96
Port Vale
1.00
Salford
1.00
Leyton Orient
1.02
Bristol Rvs
1.07
Mansfield
1.13
Sutton
1.15
Swindon
1.17
Bradford
1.20
Barrow
1.24
Newport County
1.26
Rochdale
1.28
Walsall
1.30
Colchester
1.30
Carlisle
1.35
Hartlepool
1.39
Crawley Town
1.43
Stevenage
1.48
Oldham
1.63
Harrogate
1.63
Scunthorpe
1.96
Sutton is 0.20 goals better than Carlisle in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Swindon
60%
Forest Green
54%
Rochdale
54%
Leyton Orient
53%
Exeter
53%
Salford
51%
Newport County
51%
Mansfield
51%
Tranmere
51%
Hartlepool
51%
Harrogate
51%
Barrow
51%
Port Vale
50%
Walsall
49%
Bradford
49%
Oldham
48%
Northampton
48%
Crawley Town
47%
Colchester
47%
Carlisle
46%
Stevenage
46%
Scunthorpe
46%
Sutton
44%
Sutton is 2.3 percentage points worse than Carlisle in terms of average possession (44% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sutton
For 6.0 · Against 5.1 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 2.4 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 12.4 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Carlisle
For 3.6 · Against 3.8 · Total 7.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 12.8 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sutton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (49)
11.1
11.0
11.2
3.7
3.8
3.7
22.1
23.3
21.2
vs Stronger (24)
10.0
9.0
11.0
3.5
3.6
3.5
21.8
22.5
21.0
vs Similar (25)
12.7
15.0
11.5
3.9
3.9
3.9
22.7
25.0
21.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
71%
67%
75%
55%
58%
52%
57%
67%
50%
% under line
29%
33%
25%
45%
42%
48%
43%
33%
50%
This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carlisle
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.7
9.7
3.2
3.2
3.2
26.4
26.1
26.8
vs Stronger (39)
10.5
11.0
10.0
3.2
3.2
3.2
26.3
25.9
26.8
vs Similar (11)
9.0
9.4
8.7
3.2
3.0
3.3
26.7
27.0
26.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
64%
56%
38%
36%
40%
86%
88%
84%
% under line
40%
36%
44%
62%
64%
60%
14%
12%
16%
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sutton
11.1
Exeter
10.9
Oldham
10.7
Carlisle
10.2
Colchester
10.0
Rochdale
9.9
Bristol Rvs
9.9
Crawley Town
9.8
Tranmere
9.8
Port Vale
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.6
Mansfield
9.6
Swindon
9.6
Scunthorpe
9.6
Walsall
9.6
Harrogate
9.6
Barrow
9.6
Northampton
9.5
Bradford
9.5
Forest Green
9.4
Stevenage
9.1
Newport County
8.6
Salford
8.3
Hartlepool
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Barrow
3.9
Sutton
3.7
Bristol Rvs
3.6
Salford
3.6
Northampton
3.5
Leyton Orient
3.4
Colchester
3.3
Oldham
3.3
Swindon
3.3
Forest Green
3.3
Mansfield
3.2
Carlisle
3.2
Newport County
3.1
Walsall
3.1
Hartlepool
3.0
Crawley Town
3.0
Tranmere
2.9
Stevenage
2.9
Bradford
2.8
Port Vale
2.8
Harrogate
2.8
Scunthorpe
2.7
Rochdale
2.5
Exeter
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Northampton
27.2
Carlisle
26.4
Crawley Town
26.4
Mansfield
26.3
Walsall
26.3
Bristol Rvs
26.0
Tranmere
25.5
Salford
25.0
Swindon
24.9
Barrow
24.7
Stevenage
24.7
Harrogate
24.5
Leyton Orient
24.2
Bradford
24.1
Newport County
24.0
Hartlepool
23.8
Forest Green
23.7
Port Vale
23.6
Scunthorpe
23.5
Colchester
23.0
Oldham
22.7
Sutton
22.1
Rochdale
21.7
Exeter
21.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
67.0%
Under 9.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.3%
Under 3.5
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
76.6%
Under 21.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sutton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.23
0.71
0.21
0.38
0.25
vs Stronger (16)
0.25
0.12
0.00
0.14
0.44
0.11
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.36
1.43
0.29
0.29
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carlisle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.60
0.53
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (23)
0.65
0.48
0.75
0.42
0.55
0.55
vs Similar (7)
0.43
1.14
0.00
1.00
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sutton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sutton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.67
1.14
0.64
0.88
0.69
vs Stronger (16)
0.94
0.88
1.14
0.86
0.78
0.89
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.43
1.14
0.43
1.00
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carlisle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.60
0.53
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (23)
0.39
0.70
0.33
0.67
0.45
0.73
vs Similar (7)
1.14
0.29
1.67
0.00
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sutton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (23)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
SWI (22)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SCU (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Sutton and Carlisle have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (6)
€4m
BRA (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
TRA (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Sutton and Carlisle have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Sutton and Carlisle have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: League Two 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Forest Green
Exeter
Bristol Rvs
Northampton
Port Vale
Swindon
Mansfield
Tranmere
Salford
Newport County
Crawley Town
Leyton Orient
Bradford
Colchester
Walsall
Hartlepool
Rochdale
Harrogate
Stevenage
Barrow
Oldham
Scunthorpe