PythiaFootballBETA
The contest between Sutton and Hartlepool is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are almost even: a 38% chance of Sutton triumph, 30% for a draw and 33% for Hartlepool to lift the trophy. The expected goal tally sits at 2.5, with the most likely total being two goals, a 27% probability. The single score that the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 14.2% chance, which is distinct from the overall goal expectation.
Sutton, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 2.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded. Hartlepool, on the road against a comparable side, averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. These figures suggest a balanced attack and defence from both camps.
The model’s selections are as follows: Under 5.5 cards - 98.3%, Under 4.5 cards - 94.7%, Under 3.5 cards - 85.7%, Over 19.5 fouls - 81.0%, Under 11.5 corners - 80.8%, Under 3.5 - 76.3%, Over 1.5 - 72.0%, Under 10.5 corners - 71.2%. Each pick is presented with its probability, and edge percentages are noted where provided.
Sutton’s win extended a run that began after a defeat, while Hartlepool returned to form after three straight losses. The final score was 1-0, confirming the model’s pick of a Home win, which it had assigned a 38% probability. The model’s selection was correct. Among the suggested picks, Under 5.5 cards hit with a 98.3% chance, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 81.0%, and Under 3.5 hit at 76.3%. The remaining selections - Under 4.5 cards, Under 3.5 cards, Under 11.5 corners, Over 1.5, and Under 10.5 corners - missed, despite their high probabilities of 94.7%, 85.7%, 80.8%, 72.0%, and 71.2% respectively.
Sutton| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.63 | 0.83 | 1.93 | 0.86 | 1.38 | 0.81 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 1.35 | 0.82 | 1.25 | 0.88 | 1.44 | 0.78 |
| vs Similar (13) | 2.00 | 0.85 | 2.83 | 0.83 | 1.29 | 0.86 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Hartlepool| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 0.93 | 1.73 | 0.53 | 1.47 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 1.27 | 0.73 | 1.75 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.86 | 1.14 | 1.71 | 0.29 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| Hartlepool goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.7% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 9.6% | 14% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.0% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
SuttonHartlepoolSutton| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (47) | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 22.4 | 22.5 | 22.3 |
| vs Stronger (23) | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 23.0 | 22.5 | 24.0 |
| vs Similar (24) | 11.5 | - | 11.5 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 21.5 | - | 21.5 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 60% | 50% | 67% | 55% | 57% | 54% | 60% | 50% | 67% |
| % under line | 40% | 50% | 33% | 45% | 43% | 46% | 40% | 50% | 33% |
Hartlepool| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (48) | 6.2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 23.2 | 23.8 | 22.0 |
| vs Stronger (24) | 7.8 | 6.0 | 13.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 22.2 | 22.3 | 22.0 |
| vs Similar (22) | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 25.0 | 28.0 | 22.0 |
| vs Weaker (2) | - | - | - | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 17% | 0% | 50% | 38% | 32% | 43% | 83% | 75% | 100% |
| % under line | 83% | 100% | 50% | 62% | 68% | 57% | 17% | 25% | 0% |
Sutton| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.23 | 0.71 | 0.21 | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 0.35 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.56 | 0.11 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.85 | 0.38 | 1.50 | 0.33 | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 77% (+48pp vs league) | |||||
Hartlepool| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.47 | 0.80 | 0.27 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.73 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.38 | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| vs Similar (14) | 0.79 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.14 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Sutton| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 0.60 | 1.21 | 0.64 | 0.94 | 0.56 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 1.00 | 0.71 | 1.12 | 0.75 | 0.89 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.15 | 0.46 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.43 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Hartlepool| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.47 | 0.93 | 0.27 | 0.80 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.53 | 0.33 | 0.75 | 0.38 | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.07 | 0.57 | 1.14 | 0.14 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 98.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 94.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 cards | 85.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 81.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 80.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 76.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 72.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 10.5 corners | 71.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/21 | H | 3-0 | |
| 30/01/21 | A | 1-0 |
Sutton| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/21 | H | 2-1 | |
| 28/08/21 | H | 1-2 | |
| 21/08/21 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/08/21 | A | 0-0 | |
| 07/08/21 | A | 2-1 | |
| 29/05/21 | A | 2-0 | |
| 23/05/21 | H | 3-0 | |
| 15/05/21 | A | 0-3 | |
| 11/05/21 | H | 3-2 | |
| 08/05/21 | H | 2-0 |
Hartlepool| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/21 | H | 1-0 | |
| 04/09/21 | A | 1-0 | |
| 28/08/21 | H | 2-1 | |
| 21/08/21 | H | 2-0 | |
| 14/08/21 | A | 3-2 | |
| 07/08/21 | H | 1-0 | |
| 29/05/21 | H | 4-0 | |
| 23/05/21 | A | 3-0 | |
| 15/05/21 | A | 1-3 | |
| 08/05/21 | H | 2-4 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Forest Green | 46 | 84 | 50% | 1.8 | 75 | 44 | +31 | 2.6 | 80% | 37% | 24% | 10.6 | 70% | 3.7 | 41% | 23.4 | 63% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 2 |  Exeter | 46 | 84 | 50% | 1.8 | 65 | 41 | +24 | 2.3 | 72% | 46% | 20% | 10.9 | 63% | 2.7 | 35% | 19.3 | 26% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 53% |
| 3 |  Bristol Rvs | 46 | 80 | 50% | 1.7 | 71 | 49 | +22 | 2.6 | 72% | 46% | 26% | 10.4 | 65% | 4.9 | 74% | 24.9 | 80% | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 1.1 | - |
| 4 |  Northampton | 46 | 80 | 50% | 1.7 | 60 | 38 | +22 | 2.1 | 61% | 37% | 13% | 8.9 | 35% | 3.9 | 65% | 23.4 | 67% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 48% |
| 5 |  Port Vale | 46 | 78 | 48% | 1.7 | 67 | 46 | +21 | 2.5 | 70% | 41% | 26% | 9.1 | 46% | 3.5 | 43% | 22.5 | 54% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 6 |  Swindon | 46 | 77 | 48% | 1.7 | 77 | 54 | +23 | 2.8 | 83% | 65% | 30% | 9.7 | 52% | 3.9 | 54% | 23.1 | 63% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 60% |
| 7 |  Mansfield | 46 | 77 | 48% | 1.7 | 67 | 52 | +15 | 2.6 | 76% | 50% | 30% | 9.8 | 50% | 3.7 | 50% | 23.1 | 63% | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 51% |
| 8 | Sutton | 46 | 76 | 48% | 1.7 | 69 | 53 | +16 | 2.7 | 72% | 46% | 28% | 10.6 | 57% | 3.3 | 50% | 22.4 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 44% |
| 9 |  Tranmere | 46 | 75 | 46% | 1.6 | 53 | 40 | +13 | 2.0 | 59% | 24% | 17% | 10.4 | 59% | 3.5 | 52% | 23.9 | 74% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 51% |
| 10 |  Salford | 46 | 70 | 41% | 1.5 | 60 | 46 | +14 | 2.3 | 76% | 41% | 13% | 9.2 | 46% | 3.5 | 52% | 22.8 | 67% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 11 |  Newport County | 46 | 69 | 41% | 1.5 | 67 | 58 | +9 | 2.7 | 74% | 57% | 26% | 9.2 | 48% | 3.3 | 43% | 21.3 | 48% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 12 |  Crawley Town | 46 | 61 | 37% | 1.3 | 56 | 66 | -10 | 2.7 | 70% | 57% | 24% | 9.5 | 48% | 3.2 | 43% | 23.6 | 65% | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 47% |
| 13 |  Leyton Orient | 46 | 58 | 30% | 1.3 | 62 | 47 | +15 | 2.4 | 72% | 37% | 26% | 8.8 | 43% | 4.1 | 54% | 23.2 | 72% | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 53% |
| 14 |  Bradford | 46 | 58 | 30% | 1.3 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 2.3 | 80% | 43% | 17% | 9.7 | 61% | 3.4 | 43% | 23.1 | 67% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 15 |  Colchester | 46 | 55 | 30% | 1.2 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 2.3 | 74% | 43% | 20% | 9.5 | 46% | 3.6 | 43% | 22.5 | 57% | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 16 |  Walsall | 46 | 54 | 30% | 1.2 | 47 | 60 | -13 | 2.3 | 65% | 41% | 24% | 9.2 | 50% | 3.3 | 46% | 23.9 | 72% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 49% |
| 17 | Hartlepool | 46 | 54 | 30% | 1.2 | 44 | 64 | -20 | 2.3 | 72% | 41% | 24% | 8.7 | 43% | 2.8 | 37% | 22.0 | 61% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 18 |  Rochdale | 46 | 53 | 26% | 1.2 | 51 | 59 | -8 | 2.4 | 67% | 41% | 24% | 10.2 | 61% | 2.7 | 30% | 20.3 | 39% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 19 |  Harrogate | 46 | 53 | 30% | 1.2 | 64 | 75 | -11 | 3.0 | 87% | 61% | 35% | 10.1 | 59% | 3.1 | 35% | 21.4 | 52% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 51% |
| 20 |  Carlisle | 46 | 53 | 30% | 1.2 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 2.2 | 70% | 48% | 13% | 9.5 | 43% | 3.5 | 46% | 21.6 | 48% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 21 |  Stevenage | 46 | 47 | 24% | 1.0 | 45 | 68 | -23 | 2.5 | 74% | 43% | 24% | 9.9 | 57% | 2.9 | 33% | 21.0 | 46% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 22 |  Barrow | 46 | 44 | 22% | 1.0 | 44 | 57 | -13 | 2.2 | 67% | 41% | 20% | 10.6 | 67% | 4.5 | 65% | 23.4 | 74% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 51% |
| 23 |  Oldham | 46 | 38 | 20% | 0.8 | 46 | 75 | -29 | 2.6 | 72% | 54% | 24% | 10.8 | 65% | 3.5 | 43% | 21.9 | 52% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 24 |  Scunthorpe | 46 | 26 | 9% | 0.6 | 29 | 90 | -61 | 2.6 | 72% | 46% | 28% | 9.7 | 46% | 3.1 | 33% | 23.2 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 46% |