Sutton vs Hartlepool Result & Analysis

The model favours a Sutton victory, assigning a 45% chance to a home win, 28% to a draw and 27% to an away win. With an expected total of 2.6 goals, the most likely total is two, with a 26% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.4% chance. Sutton, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.42 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, while Hartlepool on the road to a comparable side averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 81.8%, Over 1.5 goals at 75.4%, Under 3.5 goals at 72.6%, and Under 5.5 cards at 71.5%. Sutton’s recent form shows a string of wins after a defeat, whereas Hartlepool is emerging from three consecutive losses. These figures outline a tightly contested match where Sutton’s home advantage and recent momentum give them the edge, though Hartlepool’s offensive potency keeps the outcome uncertain.

The pre-match favourite, Sutton, failed to deliver, with Hartlepool snatching a 1-2 away win. Sutton’s home form has been shaky, coming off a 0-2 loss to Wealdstone, while Hartlepool, after three straight defeats, had a 0-1 away victory over Halifax. The model had picked a home win with a 45% probability, but that call was wrong. The model’s selections all hit: Over 2.5 cards at 81.8%, Over 1.5 at 75.4%, Under 3.5 at 72.6%, and Under 5.5 cards at 71.5%. The match finished 1-2, confirming Hartlepool’s triumph.