Sutton vs Hartlepool Result & Analysis

Date: 22/08/2026

Time: 11:30

Final 2-1

Sutton

36%

27%

37%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Hartlepool

England: National League

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U 10 Second Half Goals O/U 11 Second Half Home & Away O/U

12 Top picks for this game 14 Squad value 15 Games History 16 Overall Statistics 17 League Table

Match preview & prediction

This National League matchup between Sutton and Hartlepool is finely balanced, with both teams on a two-game winning run. Sutton has been on a rollercoaster ride, having won two and lost three of their last five games, including a 1-0 win over Altrincham. Meanwhile, Hartlepool has been consistent, also winning two and losing three of their last five, with a 1-0 victory over Aldershot.

The model predicts a 37% chance of an away win, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 36% chance of a Sutton victory. The expected total goals is 2.8, with the most likely total goals being 2. The model's most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13%.

Hartlepool has been scoring an average of 1.67 goals per game away from home against similar opponents, while conceding an average of 2.67 goals. Sutton, on the other hand, has been scoring an average of 1.45 goals per game at home against similar opponents, while conceding an average of 1.64 goals.

The model's selection is the away win, with a 37% probability. It also suggests "Over 1.5" goals, with a 78.6% probability.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, Hartlepool, fell short as Sutton secured a 2-1 home win, extending their three-game winning run. The model had tipped an away victory with a 37 % probability, but that call proved incorrect. The final score of 2-1 matched the most likely outcome of 1-1 or 1-2, yet the home side prevailed. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.1 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.1 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.8 %, Under 6.5 at 97.4 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.4 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.7 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 94.6 %, and Away under 3.5 goals at 94.3 %. The model’s selection of total goals under 7.5 was the only one that matched the actual total of three goals.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sutton win✓ Hit

35.7%

Avg Implied 39.0% · @ 2.36

Edge

-3.4%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

2.46

Dafabet

2.40

Superbet

2.40

Bet365

2.40

BetVictor

2.40

Draw✗ Miss

27.5%

Avg Implied 25.8% · @ 3.57

Edge

+1.7%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

3.83

Betano

3.65

Marathonbet

3.60

William Hil

3.60

1xBet

3.60

Hartlepool win✗ Miss

36.9%

Avg Implied 35.2% · @ 2.62

Edge

+1.7%

Best 5 market prices

Superbet

2.70

Unibet

2.70

Dafabet

2.70

Betano

2.65

Betfair

2.63

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Sutton

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.6

Avg scored

1.0

Avg conceded

1.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.27	1.50	1.13	1.60	1.40	1.40
vs Stronger (2)	0.50	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.00	1.00
vs Similar (28)	1.32	1.54	1.14	1.64	1.50	1.43
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	23% (-3pp vs league)

This opponent (Hartlepool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hartlepool

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.2

Avg scored

1.3

Avg conceded

1.9

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.23	1.50	1.33	1.20	1.13	1.80
vs Stronger (1)	0.00	3.00	-	-	0.00	3.00
vs Similar (26)	1.38	1.50	1.43	1.07	1.33	2.00
vs Weaker (3)	0.33	1.00	0.00	3.00	0.50	0.00
Clean sheet %	33% (+7pp vs league)

This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

78.6%

@ 1.20+1.7%

Under 1.5

21.4%

@ 4.01-1.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.23

Bet365

1.22

Pinnacle

1.22

Superbet

1.21

10Bet

1.20

Under

Pinnacle

4.26

10Bet

4.20

BetVictor

4.10

Bet365

4.00

Betfair

4.00

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

53.8%

@ 1.68-1.6%

Under 2.5

46.2%

@ 2.08+1.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.72

Betano

1.70

Bet365

1.70

Superbet

1.68

Marathonbet

1.68

Under

Pinnacle

2.14

Betano

2.12

Betfair

2.10

Bet365

2.10

10Bet

2.10

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

31.5%

@ 2.69-2.9%

Under 3.5

68.5%

@ 1.41+2.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

2.88

Pinnacle

2.79

10Bet

2.70

Marathonbet

2.66

1xBet

2.66

Under

Bet365

1.44

Betano

1.44

Pinnacle

1.44

10Bet

1.42

Superbet

1.42

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

58.5%

@ 1.57-0.1%

41.5%

@ 2.23+0.1%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Bet365

1.62

William Hil

1.62

Superbet

1.58

1xBet

1.57

Betano

1.57

BetVictor

2.30

10Bet

2.25

Superbet

2.25

Betfair

2.25

Betano

2.25

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

13.0%@ 6.51+6.4%

1-2

8.4%@ 8.74+3.5%

2-1 ✓

8.3%@ 8.20+3.0%

0-1

7.2%@ 9.29+2.6%

1-0

7.1%@ 8.77+2.2%

0-0

7.1%@ 11.69+3.4%

0-2

6.0%@ 12.89+2.7%

2-2

5.9%@ 11.17+2.0%

Sutton goals ↓

	Hartlepool goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.1%	7.2%	6.0%	2.9%	1.0%
1	7.1%	13%	8.4%	4.0%	1.4%
2	5.8%	8.3%	5.9%	2.8%	1.0%
3	2.7%	3.9%	2.8%	1.3%	0.5%
4	0.9%	1.4%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sutton goals (down), columns = Hartlepool goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Barrow

2.18

Harrogate

2.08

Carlisle

2.04

Boreham Wood

1.90

Scunthorpe

1.77

Forest Green

1.74

Southend

1.72

Halifax

1.52

Hartlepool

1.48

Kidderminster

1.38

Fylde

1.38

Woking

1.37

Tamworth

1.35

Boston Utd

1.28

Altrincham

1.24

Wealdstone

1.22

Solihull

1.22

Yeovil

1.11

Eastleigh

1.09

Gateshead

1.09

Sutton

1.02

Aldershot

1.00

Sutton is 0.46 points worse than Hartlepool in terms of average points per game (1.02 vs 1.48).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Barrow

2.30

Harrogate

2.20

Boreham Wood

2.00

Carlisle

1.87

Southend

1.77

Forest Green

1.74

Scunthorpe

1.69

Solihull

1.54

Halifax

1.50

Aldershot

1.50

Woking

1.50

Wealdstone

1.48

Kidderminster

1.45

Fylde

1.45

Boston Utd

1.37

Tamworth

1.37

Sutton

1.28

Eastleigh

1.24

Altrincham

1.20

Hartlepool

1.17

Gateshead

1.17

Yeovil

1.04

Sutton is 0.11 goals better than Hartlepool in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Barrow

0.92

Harrogate

0.96

Southend

1.02

Carlisle

1.11

Forest Green

1.11

Woking

1.17

Boreham Wood

1.24

Hartlepool

1.28

Scunthorpe

1.35

Altrincham

1.41

Halifax

1.43

Boston Utd

1.46

Kidderminster

1.46

Fylde

1.46

Yeovil

1.48

Tamworth

1.54

Solihull

1.57

Wealdstone

1.65

Sutton

1.72

Eastleigh

1.74

Aldershot

1.89

Gateshead

1.96

Sutton is 0.43 goals worse than Hartlepool in terms of goals conceded per game (1.72 vs 1.28).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %

Boreham Wood

58%

Wealdstone

57%

Sutton

54%

Aldershot

54%

Forest Green

53%

Southend

52%

Altrincham

52%

Gateshead

50%

Woking

50%

Scunthorpe

49%

Carlisle

49%

Solihull

48%

Halifax

48%

Hartlepool

47%

Yeovil

47%

Eastleigh

41%

Tamworth

38%

Sutton is 7.0 percentage points better than Hartlepool in terms of average possession (54% vs 47%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

Sutton or Draw✓ Hit

63.1%

Avg Implied 64.9% · @ 1.43

Edge

-1.8%

36%

27%

37%

covers Sutton + Draw

Best 5 market prices

Bet365

1.50

Betano

1.50

William Hil

1.44

BetVictor

1.44

Superbet

1.43

Sutton or Hartlepool✓ Hit

72.5%

Avg Implied 74.5% · @ 1.24

Edge

-2.0%

36%

27%

37%

covers Sutton + Hartlepool

Best 5 market prices

Betfair

1.29

Bet365

1.28

Superbet

1.27

Betano

1.27

William Hil

1.25

Draw or Hartlepool✗ Miss

64.3%

Avg Implied 60.5% · @ 1.53

Edge

+3.8%

36%

27%

37%

covers Draw + Hartlepool

Best 5 market prices

Betano

1.60

Betfair

1.57

William Hil

1.57

10Bet

1.55

Bet365

1.53

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.

Sutton over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

75.4%

@ 1.22-0.3%

Under

24.6%

@ 3.81+0.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.25

Betano

1.24

Pinnacle

1.23

BetVictor

1.22

Marathonbet

1.22

Under

Pinnacle

4.00

Betfair

4.00

Superbet

3.85

BetVictor

3.80

Bet365

3.75

Sutton over/under 1.5Actual: Over

Over

40.9%

@ 2.08-3.5%

Under

59.1%

@ 1.67+3.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.20

Pinnacle

2.18

Betfair

2.10

BetVictor

2.10

1xBet

2.09

Under

Betano

1.70

Superbet

1.68

Pinnacle

1.68

10Bet

1.67

Betfair

1.67

Sutton over/under 2.5Actual: Under

Over

16.7%

@ 4.51-3.8%

Under

83.3%

@ 1.17+3.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

5.00

BetVictor

4.75

Betfair

4.50

Marathonbet

4.45

1xBet

4.45

Under

Betano

1.21

Superbet

1.18

Bet365

1.17

Betfair

1.17

BetVictor

1.15

Sutton over/under 3.5Actual: Under

Over

5.4%

@ 10.18-3.9%

Under

94.6%

@ 1.04+3.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

13.00

Betfair

10.00

Superbet

9.70

Betano

8.00

Under

Betano

1.06

Bet365

1.04

Betfair

1.03

Superbet

1.03

Hartlepool over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

76.0%

@ 1.25+1.9%

Under

24.0%

@ 3.57-1.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.28

Betano

1.27

Betfair

1.25

Superbet

1.25

Pinnacle

1.25

Under

Pinnacle

3.80

BetVictor

3.70

Marathonbet

3.56

1xBet

3.56

Superbet

3.55

Hartlepool over/under 1.5Actual: Under

Over

41.8%

@ 2.21+0.0%

Under

58.2%

@ 1.59-0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.28

Betfair

2.25

Bet365

2.25

Superbet

2.22

Betano

2.22

Under

Pinnacle

1.63

Betano

1.62

Marathonbet

1.60

BetVictor

1.60

1xBet

1.60

Hartlepool over/under 2.5Actual: Under

Over

17.3%

@ 5.00-1.2%

Under

82.7%

@ 1.14+1.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

5.50

Betfair

5.50

BetVictor

5.00

Marathonbet

4.80

Superbet

4.80

Under

Betano

1.17

Superbet

1.15

Bet365

1.14

BetVictor

1.13

Betfair

1.13

Hartlepool over/under 3.5Actual: Under

Over

5.7%

@ 11.00-2.9%

Under

94.3%

@ 1.03+2.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

15.00

Superbet

12.00

Betfair

10.00

1xBet

9.00

Betano

9.00

Under

1xBet

1.04

Betano

1.04

Bet365

1.03

Betfair

1.03

Superbet

1.02

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Sutton, so a minus line means Sutton give that many goals of a start and Hartlepool receive them. At -1, Sutton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sutton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.

Handicap -2 (Sutton)Actual: Hartlepool

Sutton -2

6.2%

@ 9.50-3.1%

Draw -2

10.8%

@ 6.62-2.7%

Hartlepool +2

83.0%

@ 1.16+5.8%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Betfair

10.00

Bet365

10.00

Superbet

9.00

Marathonbet

9.00

Draw

Bet365

7.00

Marathonbet

6.60

Betfair

6.50

Superbet

6.40

Away

Superbet

1.17

Bet365

1.17

Marathonbet

1.14

Betfair

1.14

Handicap -1 (Sutton)Actual: Draw

Sutton -1

17.0%

@ 4.33-3.3%

Draw -1

18.6%

@ 3.96-3.5%

Hartlepool +1

64.3%

@ 1.53+6.8%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Betfair

4.50

10Bet

4.50

Bet365

4.50

Marathonbet

4.45

Superbet

4.40

Draw

Bet365

4.33

Superbet

4.10

Betfair

4.00

10Bet

4.00

Marathonbet

3.96

Away

Bet365

1.57

10Bet

1.55

Superbet

1.54

Betfair

1.53

Unibet

1.49

Handicap +1 (Sutton)Actual: Sutton

Sutton +1

63.1%

@ 1.42+1.3%

Draw +1

19.0%

@ 4.25-1.7%

Hartlepool -1

17.8%

@ 5.03+0.4%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

1.50

Superbet

1.44

Marathonbet

1.42

Betfair

1.40

Unibet

1.35

Draw

Betfair

4.50

Bet365

4.50

Superbet

4.40

Marathonbet

4.15

Unibet

3.70

Away

Bet365

5.50

Betfair

5.50

Superbet

5.00

Marathonbet

4.85

Unibet

4.30

Handicap +2 (Sutton)Actual: Sutton

Sutton +2

82.2%

@ 1.12+3.0%

Draw +2

11.2%

@ 6.96-1.5%

Hartlepool -2

6.7%

@ 10.86-1.5%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

1.14

Superbet

1.13

Marathonbet

1.11

Betfair

1.10

Draw

Bet365

8.00

Betfair

8.00

Superbet

7.10

Marathonbet

4.75

Away

Betfair

14.00

Bet365

12.00

Superbet

11.00

Marathonbet

6.45

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Sutton

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.2

Avg scored

0.5

Avg conceded

0.7

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.43	0.67	0.47	0.67	0.40	0.67
vs Stronger (2)	0.00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
vs Similar (28)	0.46	0.68	0.50	0.71	0.43	0.64
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	53% (+27pp vs league)

This opponent (Hartlepool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hartlepool

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.2

Avg scored

0.5

Avg conceded

0.7

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.47	0.53	0.53	0.33	0.40	0.73
vs Stronger (1)	0.00	0.00	-	-	0.00	0.00
vs Similar (26)	0.54	0.58	0.57	0.29	0.50	0.92
vs Weaker (3)	0.00	0.33	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	67% (+41pp vs league)

This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

68.5%

@ 1.30-2.6%

Under 0.5

31.5%

@ 3.21+2.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.35

Bet365

1.33

Superbet

1.31

William Hil

1.30

BetVictor

1.30

Under

Betfair

3.30

William Hil

3.30

BetVictor

3.25

Bet365

3.25

10Bet

3.20

Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

33.7%

@ 2.45-3.9%

Under 1.5

66.3%

@ 1.48+3.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.57

Betfair

2.55

Betano

2.55

Bet365

2.50

William Hil

2.45

Under

Pinnacle

1.51

BetVictor

1.50

10Bet

1.50

Betano

1.50

Bet365

1.50

Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

11.6%

@ 5.82-4.3%

Under 2.5

88.4%

@ 1.10+4.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

BetVictor

6.50

Betfair

6.50

Bet365

6.00

Superbet

5.55

William Hil

5.50

Under

Betano

1.13

William Hil

1.12

Bet365

1.12

Superbet

1.11

Marathonbet

1.08

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

Sutton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over

Over

46.2%

@ 1.89-2.8%

Under

53.8%

@ 1.81+2.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.95

Betano

1.95

Superbet

1.90

Marathonbet

1.86

1xBet

1.86

Under

Pinnacle

1.83

Superbet

1.82

Betano

1.80

Unibet

1.80

1xBet

1.80

Sutton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over

Over

12.8%

@ 5.50-4.0%

Under

87.2%

@ 1.11+4.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

5.65

Marathonbet

5.65

Superbet

5.40

Betano

5.30

Under

Betano

1.13

Superbet

1.12

Marathonbet

1.09

1xBet

1.09

Sutton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

2.2%

@ 14.12-4.5%

Under

97.8%

@ 1.01+4.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

17.00

Betano

11.25

Under

Betano

1.02

Superbet

1.01

Hartlepool over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over

Over

41.3%

@ 1.97-5.4%

Under

58.7%

@ 1.74+5.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.05

Pinnacle

2.02

Superbet

2.00

Unibet

1.93

1xBet

1.92

Under

Pinnacle

1.78

1xBet

1.75

Marathonbet

1.75

Superbet

1.73

Betano

1.72

Hartlepool over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

10.1%

@ 5.92-5.5%

Under

89.9%

@ 1.09+5.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

6.00

Marathonbet

5.95

1xBet

5.95

Betano

5.80

Under

Betano

1.12

Superbet

1.10

Marathonbet

1.08

1xBet

1.08

Hartlepool over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

1.9%

@ 15.88-4.1%

Under

98.1%

@ 1.02+4.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

20.00

Betano

11.75

Under

Betano

1.02

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Sutton

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.4

Avg scored

0.5

Avg conceded

0.9

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.83	0.83	0.67	0.93	1.00	0.73
vs Stronger (2)	0.50	0.50	1.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
vs Similar (28)	0.86	0.86	0.64	0.93	1.07	0.79
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	50% (+24pp vs league)

This opponent (Hartlepool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hartlepool

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.0

Avg scored

0.8

Avg conceded

1.2

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.77	0.97	0.80	0.87	0.73	1.07
vs Stronger (1)	0.00	3.00	-	-	0.00	3.00
vs Similar (26)	0.85	0.92	0.86	0.79	0.83	1.08
vs Weaker (3)	0.33	0.67	0.00	2.00	0.50	0.00
Clean sheet %	40% (+14pp vs league)

This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under

Over 0.5

78.6%

Under 0.5

21.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

44.5%

Under 1.5

55.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

17.2%

Under 2.5

82.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.

Sutton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under

Over

54.7%

Under

45.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Sutton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

17.9%

Under

82.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Sutton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

4.3%

Under

95.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Hartlepool over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under

Over

51.0%

Under

49.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Hartlepool over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

15.8%

Under

84.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Hartlepool over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

3.6%

Under

96.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Under 7.5	99.1%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals	98.1%	1.02	Betano 1.02	-	-	-	-	+4.1%	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals	97.8%	1.01	Betano 1.02	Superbet 1.01	-	-	-	+4.5%	✓ Hit
Under 6.5	97.4%	1.01	Betano 1.02	Bet365 1.01	Superbet 1.01	1xBet 1.01	-	+2.8%	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals	96.4%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals	95.7%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals	94.6%	1.04	Betano 1.06	Bet365 1.04	Betfair 1.03	Superbet 1.03	-	+3.9%	✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals	94.3%	1.03	1xBet 1.04	Betano 1.04	Bet365 1.03	Betfair 1.03	Superbet 1.02	+2.9%	✓ Hit
Under 5.5	93.2%	1.03	Betano 1.06	Bet365 1.05	Superbet 1.04	BetVictor 1.02	Betfair 1.02	+3.2%	✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals	89.9%	1.09	Betano 1.12	Superbet 1.10	Marathonbet 1.08	1xBet 1.08	-	+5.5%	✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals	88.4%	1.10	Betano 1.13	William Hil 1.12	Bet365 1.12	Superbet 1.11	Marathonbet 1.08	+4.3%	✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals	87.2%	1.11	Betano 1.13	Superbet 1.12	Marathonbet 1.09	1xBet 1.09	-	+4.0%	✗ Miss
Under 4.5	84.3%	1.14	Betano 1.18	Bet365 1.17	Pinnacle 1.17	Superbet 1.15	BetVictor 1.13	+3.0%	✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals	84.2%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals	83.3%	1.17	Betano 1.21	Superbet 1.18	Bet365 1.17	Betfair 1.17	BetVictor 1.15	+3.8%	✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap	83.0%	1.16	Superbet 1.17	Bet365 1.17	Marathonbet 1.14	Betfair 1.14	-	+5.8%	✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals	82.8%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals	82.7%	1.14	Betano 1.17	Superbet 1.15	Bet365 1.14	BetVictor 1.13	Betfair 1.13	+1.2%	✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap	82.2%	1.12	Bet365 1.14	Superbet 1.13	Marathonbet 1.11	Betfair 1.10	-	+3.0%	✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals	82.1%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals	78.6%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✗ Miss
Over 1.5	78.6%	1.20	Betano 1.23	Bet365 1.22	Pinnacle 1.22	Superbet 1.21	10Bet 1.20	+1.7%	✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards	78.5%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Away over 0.5 goals	76.0%	1.25	Bet365 1.28	Betano 1.27	Betfair 1.25	Superbet 1.25	Pinnacle 1.25	+1.9%	✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards	75.9%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Home over 0.5 goals	75.4%	1.22	Bet365 1.25	Betano 1.24	Pinnacle 1.23	BetVictor 1.22	Marathonbet 1.22	-0.3%	✓ Hit
Home or Away	72.5%	1.24	Betfair 1.29	Bet365 1.28	Superbet 1.27	Betano 1.27	William Hil 1.25	-2.0%	✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

BAR (11)

€2m

HAR (14)

€1m

FG (4)

€1m

BU (6)

€1m

EAS (5)

€1m

SOU (3)

€1m

HAR (6)

€1m

SOL (3)

€0m

ALT (5)

€0m

ALD (4)

€0m

WOK (3)

€0m

YEO (3)

€0m

SCU (2)

€0m

TAM (4)

€0m

CAR (1)

€0m

WEA (2)

€0m

HAL (2)

€0m

GAT (1)

€0m

SUT (1)

€0m

Sutton and Hartlepool have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

BAR (3)

€0m

FG (2)

€0m

ALD (3)

€0m

HAR (4)

€0m

ALT (3)

€0m

SOL (2)

€0m

EAS (1)

€0m

HAR (2)

€0m

SCU (1)

€0m

GAT (1)

€0m

YEO (1)

€0m

BU (1)

€0m

TAM (2)

€0m

HAL (1)

€0m

WOK (1)

€0m

CAR (0)

€0m

SOU (0)

€0m

SUT (0)

€0m

WEA (0)

€0m

Sutton and Hartlepool have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

BAR (5)

€1m

HAR (4)

€1m

SOU (2)

€0m

BU (2)

€0m

HAR (2)

€0m

TAM (2)

€0m

YEO (1)

€0m

ALT (1)

€0m

EAS (1)

€0m

SUT (1)

€0m

WEA (1)

€0m

SCU (0)

€0m

FG (0)

€0m

CAR (0)

€0m

GAT (0)

€0m

ALD (0)

€0m

SOL (0)

€0m

HAL (0)

€0m

WOK (0)

€0m

Sutton and Hartlepool have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

BAR (3)

€1m

HAR (6)

€0m

BU (3)

€0m

EAS (3)

€0m

FG (2)

€0m

WOK (2)

€0m

CAR (1)

€0m

SOL (1)

€0m

SOU (1)

€0m

SCU (1)

€0m

YEO (1)

€0m

HAR (2)

€0m

WEA (1)

€0m

HAL (1)

€0m

ALD (1)

€0m

ALT (1)

€0m

GAT (0)

€0m

TAM (0)

€0m

SUT (0)

€0m

Sutton and Hartlepool have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings

SUT wins

Draws

HAR wins

Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Sutton vs Hartlepool · H/A from SUT

Date	H/A	Game	Score
03/03/26	A	Hartlepool Vs SUT	0-2
18/10/25	H	SUT Vs Hartlepool	3-3
08/02/25	H	SUT Vs Hartlepool	1-2
05/10/24	A	Hartlepool Vs SUT	4-3
11/02/23	A	Hartlepool Vs SUT	2-2
17/09/22	H	SUT Vs Hartlepool	2-0
19/02/22	A	Hartlepool Vs SUT	1-1
14/09/21	H	SUT Vs Hartlepool	1-0

Sutton

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
15/08/26	H	SUT Vs Altrincham	1-0
08/08/26	A	Woking Vs SUT	0-3
25/04/26	A	Boreham Wood Vs SUT	1-0
18/04/26	H	SUT Vs Altrincham	1-2
11/04/26	A	Carlisle Vs SUT	3-0
06/04/26	H	SUT Vs Southend	0-3
03/04/26	A	Aldershot Vs SUT	2-2
28/03/26	H	SUT Vs Rochdale	1-2
24/03/26	A	Eastleigh Vs SUT	0-2
21/03/26	H	SUT Vs Truro	0-3

Hartlepool

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
15/08/26	A	Aldershot Vs HAR	0-1
08/08/26	H	HAR Vs Barrow	2-0
25/04/26	A	Boston Utd Vs HAR	3-1
21/04/26	H	HAR Vs Southend	4-3
18/04/26	H	HAR Vs Forest Green	2-1
11/04/26	A	Boreham Wood Vs HAR	3-0
06/04/26	H	HAR Vs Rochdale	0-0
03/04/26	A	Scunthorpe Vs HAR	0-0
31/03/26	A	Wealdstone Vs HAR	7-0
25/03/26	A	Morecambe Vs HAR	2-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Sutton

England: National League

Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LLLWW	1.14
Home	LLLLW	1.23
Away	WDLLW	1.04

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	28%	31%	25%
AVG goals	3.06	3.23	2.88
Over 1.5 %	82%	92%	71%
Over 2.5 %	62%	69%	54%
Over 3.5 %	32%	27%	38%
Scored	1.38	1.50	1.25
Conceded	1.68	1.73	1.62
BTTS	62%	73%	50%
Clean Sheet	18%	15%	21%
Corners	17.00	17.00	-
Cards	4.76	5.35	4.14

Hartlepool

England: National League

Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WWLWW	1.50
Home	WDWWW	1.60
Away	LDLLW	1.40

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	40%	44%	36%
AVG goals	2.44	2.32	2.56
Over 1.5 %	68%	76%	60%
Over 2.5 %	40%	40%	40%
Over 3.5 %	24%	16%	32%
Scored	1.18	1.28	1.08
Conceded	1.26	1.04	1.48
BTTS	44%	48%	40%
Clean Sheet	38%	36%	40%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	3.22	3.09	3.35

🏆 17. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Sutton	5	12	80%	2.4	7	3	+4	2.0	60%	40%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	0.6	54%
2	Yeovil	5	11	60%	2.2	10	5	+5	3.0	100%	60%	20%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.0	47%
3	Boreham Wood	4	10	75%	2.5	11	5	+6	4.0	100%	100%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.8	1.2	58%
4	Harrogate	5	10	60%	2.0	13	9	+4	4.4	100%	100%	80%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	1	0	2.6	1.8	-
5	F Fylde	5	10	60%	2.0	11	7	+4	3.6	100%	80%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.2	1.4	-
6	Southend	5	10	60%	2.0	9	6	+3	3.0	80%	60%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	1.8	1.2	52%
7	Eastleigh	5	10	60%	2.0	7	5	+2	2.4	60%	40%	20%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	1.4	1.0	41%
8	K Kidderminster	4	8	50%	2.0	6	3	+3	2.2	75%	25%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	0.8	-
9	Aldershot	5	8	40%	1.6	6	4	+2	2.0	60%	20%	20%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	0.8	54%
10	Boston Utd	4	6	50%	1.5	4	3	+1	1.8	50%	25%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	1.0	0.8	-
11	Hartlepool	4	6	50%	1.5	4	3	+1	1.8	50%	25%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	1.0	0.8	47%
12	Altrincham	5	6	40%	1.2	5	7	-2	2.4	60%	60%	20%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.4	52%
13	Carlisle	3	5	33%	1.7	6	4	+2	3.3	100%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.3	49%
14	Wealdstone	4	5	25%	1.2	6	6	+0	3.0	100%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	1.5	57%
15	Scunthorpe	5	4	20%	0.8	8	10	-2	3.6	80%	60%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.6	2.0	49%
16	Woking	4	4	25%	1.0	4	8	-4	3.0	100%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	2.0	50%
17	Halifax	4	3	25%	0.8	8	9	-1	4.2	100%	100%	75%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	2.2	48%
18	Gateshead	5	3	20%	0.6	4	8	-4	2.4	80%	60%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	1.6	50%
19	Forest Green	4	3	25%	0.8	4	9	-5	3.2	100%	75%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	1.0	2.2	53%
20	Barrow	4	2	0%	0.5	4	7	-3	2.8	100%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	0	1	1	1.0	1.8	-
21	Tamworth	4	1	0%	0.2	7	12	-5	4.8	100%	100%	75%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	3.0	38%
22	Solihull	5	0	0%	0.0	5	16	-11	4.2	100%	80%	80%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	3.2	48%

England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

← all matches

Sutton vs Hartlepool Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Sutton

Hartlepool

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Sutton

Hartlepool

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Sutton

Hartlepool

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

Head-to-head

Sutton

Hartlepool

📊 16. Overall Statistics

🏆 17. League Table

A Pro feature