The model favours an away win, with a 42% chance for Scunthorpe, 32% for Sutton and 26% for a draw. The match is expected to see about 3.1 goals, but the most likely total is 2 goals, a 22% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.7% chance. Sutton, playing at home against a similarly-sized opponent, averages 1.19 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. Scunthorpe, on the road, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.64 conceded versus similar teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.5%), Under 6.5 (95.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.9%), Under 5.5 (90.1%), Away +2 handicap (84.6%), Over 1.5 (83.2%) and Home under 2.5 goals (82.0%). Sutton’s recent form shows a three-game winning run, while Scunthorpe’s last five games included two straight defeats. This context supports the predicted outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sutton win
31.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe win
43.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sutton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.43
0.93
1.60
1.27
1.27
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
1.14
1.45
0.93
1.60
1.36
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Scunthorpe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Scunthorpe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.63
1.53
1.47
1.67
1.80
vs Stronger (4)
2.00
1.25
2.50
1.00
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (26)
1.54
1.69
1.38
1.54
1.69
1.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.4%
Under 1.5
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.8%
Under 2.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.6%
Under 3.5
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.0%
No
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.6%
2-2
6.7%
0-2
6.0%
0-1
5.8%
1-3
5.2%
0-0
4.9%
Sutton goals ↓
Scunthorpe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
5.8%
6.0%
3.5%
1.5%
1
4.8%
11%
8.9%
5.2%
2.3%
2
4.3%
7.6%
6.7%
3.9%
1.7%
3
2.2%
3.8%
3.3%
1.9%
0.8%
4
0.8%
1.4%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sutton goals (down), columns = Scunthorpe goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Fylde
1.38
Kidderminster
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Sutton is 0.75 points worse than Scunthorpe in terms of average points per game (1.02 vs 1.77).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Woking
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Fylde
1.45
Kidderminster
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Hartlepool
1.17
Gateshead
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Sutton is 0.40 goals worse than Scunthorpe in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.69).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Carlisle
1.11
Forest Green
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Sutton is 0.36 goals worse than Scunthorpe in terms of goals conceded per game (1.72 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Sutton is 5.4 percentage points better than Scunthorpe in terms of average possession (54% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sutton or Draw
57.0%
Avg Implied -
32%
25%
43%
covers Sutton + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sutton or Scunthorpe
74.9%
Avg Implied -
32%
25%
43%
covers Sutton + Scunthorpe
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Scunthorpe
68.1%
Avg Implied -
32%
25%
43%
covers Draw + Scunthorpe
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sutton over/under 0.5
Over
77.4%
Under
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 1.5
Over
43.8%
Under
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 2.5
Over
18.8%
Under
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 3.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 0.5
Over
82.6%
Under
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 1.5
Over
52.2%
Under
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 2.5
Over
25.6%
Under
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 3.5
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sutton, so a minus line means Sutton give that many goals of a start and Scunthorpe receive them. At -1, Sutton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sutton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sutton)
Sutton -2
5.8%
Draw -2
9.6%
Scunthorpe +2
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sutton)
Sutton -1
15.3%
Draw -1
16.5%
Scunthorpe +1
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sutton)
Sutton +1
57.0%
Draw +1
19.6%
Scunthorpe -1
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sutton)
Sutton +2
76.6%
Draw +2
13.3%
Scunthorpe -2
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sutton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.70
0.53
0.73
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
0.45
0.69
0.53
0.73
0.36
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Scunthorpe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Scunthorpe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.97
0.53
0.87
0.67
1.07
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.50
1.04
0.46
0.92
0.54
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.2%
Under 0.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.0%
Under 1.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.7%
Under 2.5
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sutton over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.2%
Under
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.9%
Under
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.0%
Under
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sutton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.40
0.87
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
0.69
0.76
0.40
0.87
1.00
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Scunthorpe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Scunthorpe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.60
1.00
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
1.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.04
0.65
0.92
0.62
1.15
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.4%
Under 0.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.7%
Under 1.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.4%
Under 2.5
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sutton over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.4%
Under
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.9%
Under
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
SCU (2)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Sutton and Scunthorpe have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Sutton and Scunthorpe have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Sutton and Scunthorpe have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Sutton and Scunthorpe have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →
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Yeovil
Boreham Wood
Harrogate
Southend
Eastleigh
Aldershot
Boston Utd
Halifax
Hartlepool
Altrincham
Carlisle
Wealdstone
Woking
Gateshead
Forest Green
Barrow
Tamworth
Solihull