This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colchester
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.33
1.12
1.18
1.08
1.54
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
1.20
1.75
1.25
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.89
1.44
0.88
1.00
0.90
1.80
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
1.14
1.00
1.40
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.4%
Under 1.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.9%
@ 1.80-10.4%
Under 2.5
58.1%
@ 1.97+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.2%
Under 3.5
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.7%
No
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
13.9%
1-1
12.7%
2-0
12.0%
0-0
10.6%
2-1
9.2%
3-0
6.4%
0-1
6.1%
3-1
4.9%
Swindon goals ↓
Colchester goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.1%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
1
14%
13%
4.4%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
9.2%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
3
6.4%
4.9%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.5%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Swindon goals (down), columns = Colchester goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leyton Orient
1.98
Stevenage
1.85
Northampton
1.80
Stockport
1.72
Bradford
1.65
Carlisle
1.65
Mansfield
1.63
Salford
1.63
Barrow
1.35
Grimsby
1.33
Swindon
1.33
Sutton
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Tranmere
1.26
Newport County
1.24
Doncaster
1.20
Walsall
1.20
Gillingham
1.20
Harrogate
1.13
Colchester
1.07
AFC Wimbledon
1.04
Crawley Town
1.00
Hartlepool
0.93
Rochdale
0.83
Swindon is 0.26 points better than Colchester in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.07).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Mansfield
1.57
Salford
1.57
Carlisle
1.43
Stockport
1.41
Northampton
1.35
Leyton Orient
1.33
Swindon
1.33
Bradford
1.33
Stevenage
1.33
Harrogate
1.28
Newport County
1.15
Hartlepool
1.13
Grimsby
1.07
AFC Wimbledon
1.04
Crawley Town
1.04
Crewe
1.04
Barrow
1.02
Sutton
1.00
Doncaster
1.00
Walsall
1.00
Rochdale
1.00
Tranmere
0.98
Colchester
0.96
Gillingham
0.78
Swindon is 0.37 goals better than Colchester in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 0.96).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leyton Orient
0.74
Stockport
0.80
Stevenage
0.85
Northampton
0.91
Bradford
0.93
Carlisle
0.93
Tranmere
1.04
Walsall
1.07
Gillingham
1.07
Colchester
1.11
Barrow
1.15
Salford
1.17
Swindon
1.20
Mansfield
1.20
Grimsby
1.22
Newport County
1.22
Sutton
1.26
AFC Wimbledon
1.30
Crewe
1.30
Doncaster
1.41
Harrogate
1.48
Rochdale
1.52
Crawley Town
1.54
Hartlepool
1.70
Swindon is 0.09 goals worse than Colchester in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Swindon
58%
Leyton Orient
58%
Salford
57%
Bradford
54%
Stockport
54%
Mansfield
53%
Hartlepool
51%
Crawley Town
51%
Northampton
51%
Tranmere
51%
Grimsby
50%
Doncaster
50%
Rochdale
49%
Harrogate
48%
Crewe
48%
Stevenage
48%
AFC Wimbledon
47%
Newport County
46%
Carlisle
46%
Sutton
46%
Walsall
46%
Barrow
46%
Colchester
46%
Gillingham
45%
Swindon is 12.3 percentage points better than Colchester in terms of average possession (58% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Swindon
For 7.3 · Against 4.4 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 9.4 · Total 18.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Colchester
For 5.1 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 12.3 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Swindon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.3
9.8
3.9
4.3
3.6
22.0
20.7
23.3
vs Stronger (1)
11.0
-
11.0
5.0
-
5.0
20.0
-
20.0
vs Similar (36)
9.8
9.9
9.6
4.1
4.4
3.7
22.4
21.5
23.3
vs Weaker (13)
10.8
11.3
10.3
3.5
4.0
3.0
21.0
18.7
23.7
% over line
54%
58%
50%
52%
62%
42%
54%
46%
62%
% under line
46%
42%
50%
48%
38%
58%
46%
54%
38%
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colchester
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.9
8.5
3.8
3.9
3.6
22.9
22.8
23.0
vs Stronger (7)
8.3
9.2
7.0
3.4
3.5
3.3
22.7
22.2
23.3
vs Similar (32)
9.3
10.1
8.7
3.8
3.9
3.6
22.7
22.8
22.6
vs Weaker (11)
9.5
9.8
8.7
3.9
4.0
3.7
23.6
23.0
25.3
% over line
42%
44%
39%
48%
56%
39%
56%
59%
52%
% under line
58%
56%
61%
52%
44%
61%
44%
41%
48%
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sutton
10.4
Rochdale
10.3
Barrow
10.3
Mansfield
10.2
Tranmere
10.1
Crewe
10.1
Swindon
10.1
AFC Wimbledon
10.0
Harrogate
9.9
Bradford
9.9
Stevenage
9.9
Gillingham
9.7
Doncaster
9.7
Grimsby
9.7
Carlisle
9.6
Salford
9.6
Newport County
9.5
Crawley Town
9.4
Colchester
9.2
Walsall
9.1
Hartlepool
8.9
Leyton Orient
8.9
Stockport
8.8
Northampton
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Barrow
4.2
AFC Wimbledon
4.1
Leyton Orient
4.0
Northampton
4.0
Swindon
3.9
Colchester
3.8
Stockport
3.7
Mansfield
3.6
Salford
3.5
Bradford
3.5
Walsall
3.4
Sutton
3.4
Newport County
3.4
Carlisle
3.4
Gillingham
3.2
Tranmere
3.2
Crewe
3.2
Grimsby
3.1
Crawley Town
3.1
Harrogate
3.1
Rochdale
3.1
Stevenage
2.9
Doncaster
2.9
Hartlepool
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stockport
24.7
Northampton
23.6
Salford
23.5
Crawley Town
23.4
Bradford
23.4
AFC Wimbledon
23.4
Mansfield
23.3
Walsall
23.2
Barrow
23.2
Grimsby
23.1
Colchester
22.9
Sutton
22.8
Tranmere
22.5
Crewe
22.4
Leyton Orient
22.2
Swindon
22.0
Gillingham
21.4
Stevenage
21.4
Harrogate
21.4
Doncaster
21.3
Hartlepool
21.2
Newport County
21.2
Rochdale
20.4
Carlisle
20.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
36.9%
Under 9.5
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.1%
Under 3.5
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
15.9%
Under 21.5
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Swindon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.67
0.33
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.45
0.40
0.20
0.80
0.70
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.44
1.20
0.60
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colchester
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.53
0.41
0.47
0.46
0.62
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.20
0.50
0.25
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.61
0.38
0.50
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.57
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Swindon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Swindon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
1.07
0.53
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.70
0.90
0.70
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.11
1.40
0.20
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colchester
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.71
0.71
0.62
0.92
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.00
1.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.83
0.50
0.50
0.40
1.10
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.57
0.60
0.80
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Swindon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5 cards
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 19.5 fouls
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Swindon · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
A. Drinan50%
Ollie Clarke33%
B. Middlemas25%
O. Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
C. Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Tom Nichols0%
Stephan Negru0%
Anthony Munda0%
K. Majekodunmi0%
Louis Millard0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ollie Clarke33%
K. Majekodunmi33%
C. Ripley25%
O. Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Tom Nichols0%
A. Drinan0%
Stephan Negru0%
B. Middlemas0%
Anthony Munda0%
Louis Millard0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Anthony Munda67%
Stephan Negru25%
O. Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
C. Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Ollie Clarke0%
Tom Nichols0%
A. Drinan0%
B. Middlemas0%
K. Majekodunmi0%
Louis Millard0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Drinan50%
O. Palmer25%
Mitchell Clark0%
C. Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Ollie Clarke0%
Tom Nichols0%
Stephan Negru0%
B. Middlemas0%
Anthony Munda0%
K. Majekodunmi0%
Louis Millard0%
Colchester · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jaden Williams33%
Harry Anderson25%
P. Digby0%
K. Vincent-Young0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Tucker0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
O. Thorn0%
F. Terry0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
M. Sesay0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
K. Vincent-Young25%
Ellis Iandolo25%
Rob Hunt25%
J. Tucker25%
Harry Anderson0%
P. Digby0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
O. Thorn0%
F. Terry0%
Jaden Williams0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
M. Sesay0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
K. Vincent-Young25%
O. Thorn25%
Harry Anderson0%
P. Digby0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Tucker0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
F. Terry0%
Jaden Williams0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
M. Sesay0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Harry Anderson75%
M. Sesay33%
P. Digby0%
K. Vincent-Young0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Tucker0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
O. Thorn0%
F. Terry0%
Jaden Williams0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Swindon and Colchester have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Swindon and Colchester have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Swindon and Colchester have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STO (11)
€4m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Swindon and Colchester have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Leyton Orient
Stevenage
Northampton
Stockport
Carlisle
Bradford
Salford
Mansfield
Barrow
Grimsby
Tranmere
Crewe
Sutton
Newport County
Walsall
Gillingham
Doncaster
Harrogate
AFC Wimbledon
Crawley Town
Hartlepool
Rochdale