This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crewe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.40
1.47
1.33
0.80
1.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.21
1.42
1.64
1.36
0.85
1.46
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
1.25
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.6%
Under 1.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.7%
@ 1.88-4.2%
Under 2.5
54.3%
@ 1.87+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.3%
Under 3.5
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.7%
No
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
11.4%
2-0
9.8%
0-0
9.4%
2-1
9.4%
0-1
6.6%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
5.1%
Swindon goals ↓
Crewe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
6.6%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.8%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.8%
9.4%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
5.1%
4.8%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.0%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Swindon goals (down), columns = Crewe goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stockport
2.00
Wrexham
1.91
Mansfield
1.87
Milton Keynes Dons
1.70
Doncaster
1.54
Crewe
1.54
Crawley Town
1.52
Bradford
1.50
Barrow
1.50
AFC Wimbledon
1.41
Walsall
1.41
Gillingham
1.39
Harrogate
1.37
Notts County
1.33
Morecambe
1.33
Accrington
1.24
Tranmere
1.24
Newport County
1.20
Swindon
1.17
Salford
1.11
Grimsby
1.07
Colchester
0.98
Forest Green
0.91
Sutton
0.91
Swindon is 0.37 points worse than Crewe in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.54).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stockport
2.09
Mansfield
1.96
Notts County
1.93
Wrexham
1.93
Milton Keynes Dons
1.80
Swindon
1.67
Doncaster
1.59
Crawley Town
1.59
Walsall
1.50
Crewe
1.50
Tranmere
1.46
Morecambe
1.46
Salford
1.43
AFC Wimbledon
1.39
Accrington
1.37
Newport County
1.35
Barrow
1.35
Bradford
1.33
Harrogate
1.30
Sutton
1.28
Colchester
1.28
Grimsby
1.24
Gillingham
1.00
Forest Green
0.96
Swindon is 0.17 goals better than Crewe in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Mansfield
1.02
Stockport
1.04
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Wrexham
1.13
Barrow
1.22
Gillingham
1.24
Bradford
1.28
Crewe
1.41
Crawley Town
1.46
Doncaster
1.48
Milton Keynes Dons
1.48
Harrogate
1.50
Tranmere
1.52
Accrington
1.54
Walsall
1.59
Grimsby
1.61
Newport County
1.65
Forest Green
1.70
Colchester
1.74
Morecambe
1.76
Salford
1.78
Swindon
1.80
Sutton
1.83
Notts County
1.87
Swindon is 0.39 goals worse than Crewe in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Notts County
65%
Milton Keynes Dons
58%
Crawley Town
57%
Stockport
57%
Swindon
55%
Mansfield
54%
Salford
52%
Bradford
51%
Crewe
50%
Gillingham
50%
Wrexham
50%
Doncaster
49%
Grimsby
49%
Colchester
49%
Accrington
48%
Harrogate
48%
AFC Wimbledon
47%
Tranmere
47%
Forest Green
45%
Barrow
44%
Sutton
44%
Newport County
44%
Morecambe
44%
Walsall
43%
Swindon is 4.1 percentage points better than Crewe in terms of average possession (55% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Swindon
For 4.1 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 13.4 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Crewe
For 5.4 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 13.2 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Swindon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.8
10.5
4.0
4.2
3.8
21.7
20.4
23.0
vs Stronger (2)
7.0
3.0
11.0
7.0
9.0
5.0
24.5
29.0
20.0
vs Similar (38)
9.9
9.6
10.2
3.6
3.6
3.6
21.4
20.0
22.9
vs Weaker (10)
11.8
12.0
11.6
4.8
5.6
4.0
22.2
20.2
24.2
% over line
58%
56%
60%
56%
64%
48%
52%
40%
64%
% under line
42%
44%
40%
44%
36%
52%
48%
60%
36%
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crewe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.3
10.9
3.1
3.4
2.8
23.0
24.1
22.0
vs Stronger (5)
11.0
11.0
11.0
2.0
3.0
1.3
21.4
24.0
19.7
vs Similar (37)
10.8
10.3
11.4
3.3
3.6
3.0
23.5
24.7
22.3
vs Weaker (8)
9.4
10.0
8.8
3.1
3.0
3.2
21.6
21.0
22.2
% over line
66%
56%
76%
38%
40%
36%
60%
64%
56%
% under line
34%
44%
24%
62%
60%
64%
40%
36%
44%
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crewe
10.6
Morecambe
10.4
Harrogate
10.4
Swindon
10.2
Forest Green
10.1
Tranmere
10.1
Accrington
10.1
Sutton
9.9
Bradford
9.9
Crawley Town
9.8
Milton Keynes Dons
9.8
Mansfield
9.7
Colchester
9.7
Grimsby
9.5
Salford
9.4
AFC Wimbledon
9.4
Stockport
9.2
Doncaster
9.2
Notts County
9.0
Wrexham
9.0
Walsall
8.9
Newport County
8.9
Barrow
8.9
Gillingham
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
AFC Wimbledon
4.8
Accrington
4.4
Barrow
4.0
Swindon
4.0
Colchester
3.9
Mansfield
3.9
Forest Green
3.8
Sutton
3.7
Bradford
3.7
Salford
3.7
Morecambe
3.6
Milton Keynes Dons
3.6
Walsall
3.5
Notts County
3.5
Crawley Town
3.5
Grimsby
3.5
Newport County
3.4
Gillingham
3.4
Stockport
3.2
Crewe
3.1
Tranmere
3.1
Doncaster
3.0
Harrogate
2.9
Wrexham
2.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
AFC Wimbledon
26.3
Accrington
24.8
Sutton
24.1
Barrow
24.1
Notts County
24.0
Wrexham
24.0
Stockport
23.5
Gillingham
23.4
Colchester
23.1
Crewe
23.0
Salford
23.0
Bradford
22.9
Newport County
22.9
Grimsby
22.7
Mansfield
22.4
Walsall
22.2
Forest Green
22.1
Crawley Town
22.0
Swindon
21.7
Milton Keynes Dons
21.7
Morecambe
21.4
Tranmere
20.8
Doncaster
20.5
Harrogate
20.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
45.3%
Under 9.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.4%
Under 3.5
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
34.4%
Under 21.5
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Swindon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
0.60
0.67
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.68
0.69
0.77
0.75
0.58
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crewe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.93
0.60
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.67
1.00
0.73
0.23
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Swindon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Swindon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.67
0.53
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.48
0.69
0.38
0.75
0.58
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crewe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.83
0.53
0.73
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.75
0.64
0.64
0.62
0.85
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Swindon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Swindon · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
A. Drinan50%
Ollie Clarke33%
B. Middlemas25%
O. Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
C. Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Tom Nichols0%
Stephan Negru0%
Anthony Munda0%
K. Majekodunmi0%
Louis Millard0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ollie Clarke33%
K. Majekodunmi33%
C. Ripley25%
O. Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Tom Nichols0%
A. Drinan0%
Stephan Negru0%
B. Middlemas0%
Anthony Munda0%
Louis Millard0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Anthony Munda67%
Stephan Negru25%
O. Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
C. Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Ollie Clarke0%
Tom Nichols0%
A. Drinan0%
B. Middlemas0%
K. Majekodunmi0%
Louis Millard0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Drinan50%
O. Palmer25%
Mitchell Clark0%
C. Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Ollie Clarke0%
Tom Nichols0%
Stephan Negru0%
B. Middlemas0%
Anthony Munda0%
K. Majekodunmi0%
Louis Millard0%
Crewe · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jack Lankester33%
Josh March33%
Adrien Thibaut25%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Charlie McNeill0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mickey Demetriou33%
Josh March33%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Charlie McNeill0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lewis Billington50%
Charlie McNeill33%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Josh March0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jordan Gibson50%
Charlie McNeill33%
Calum Agius25%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Josh March0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
MKD (24)
€15m
STO (25)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
CT (19)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
MOR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Swindon and Crewe have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
MKD (8)
€5m
STO (8)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Swindon and Crewe have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
MKD (6)
€7m
MAN (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
Swindon and Crewe have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
STO (11)
€4m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Swindon and Crewe have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Stockport
Wrexham
Mansfield
Milton Keynes Dons
Doncaster
Crawley Town
Barrow
Bradford
AFC Wimbledon
Walsall
Gillingham
Harrogate
Notts County
Morecambe
Tranmere
Accrington
Newport County
Salford
Grimsby
Colchester
Sutton
Forest Green