Swindon vs Walsall Result & Analysis

The contest between Swindon and Walsall is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. The probability split is 37% for a Swindon victory, 31% for a draw and 32% for a Walsall win. The expected total of goals is 2.4, with the most likely total being two goals at 28%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, which carries a 14.4% chance.

Swindon, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.73 goals scored and 0.82 conceded. Walsall, on the road, averages 0.91 goals scored and 1.18 conceded against comparable opposition. Both sides have shown recent resilience, Swindon coming off a win and Walsall unbeaten in five games.

The model’s selections include: Under 5.5 cards (91%), Under 4.5 cards (80.4%), Under 3.5 cards (78.8%), Over 8.5 corners (78.5%), Under 25.5 fouls (76.9%) and Over 19.5 fouls (70.3%). These are the only picks offered, each with its own probability.

The upset came as Swindon, the pre-match favourite with a 37% chance of triumph, fell to a 1-2 defeat, leaving the model’s pick wrong. The final score confirmed an away win for Walsall, who were unbeaten in their last five matches. Swindon entered the game on a win, while Walsall had a solid run of draws and victories. The model had predicted a 2-goal total, the most likely scoreline being 1-1, yet the match produced three goals. The model’s selections all hit: Under 5.5 cards at 91%, Under 4.5 cards at 80.4%, Under 3.5 at 78.8%, Over 8.5 corners at 78.5%, Under 25.5 fouls at 76.9%, and Over 19.5 fouls at 70.3%.