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Tabor Sežana vs Beltinci Result & Analysis

Date: 06/09/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 1-5
Tabor Sežana
Tabor Sežana
Vs
25%
24%
51%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Beltinci
Beltinci
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Tabor Sežana’s recent five-game winning streak suggests a resilient home side, but the numbers paint a different picture. Their average of 0.91 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against similar opponents indicates a porous defense, while Beltinci’s 1.38 goals scored and 1.46 conceded on the road show a more potent attack. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 51% chance, a draw at 24% and a home win at 25%. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 10.8% probability. The single most likely total of three goals has a 22% chance. The model’s selection, Over 1.5, is hit with an 84.5% probability. All figures are taken directly from the data, with no additional commentary.

Results analysis

The win extends Tabor Sežana’s five-game winning run, while Beltinci come off a defeat yet still prove strong away. The final score was 1-5, an away win that matched the model’s prediction. The model picked an away win with a 51% probability, and this call was correct. Its suggested selection, Over 1.5 goals, carried an 84.5% probability and hit. No other picks were listed, so the model’s overall performance was solid, delivering the favoured result and the key selection.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tabor Sežana win✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Beltinci win✓ Hit
51.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D12L12L11D11D01L22D06L11D11DA·CEL15/04H·MUR22/04H·RAD30/04A·BRA04/05H·MAR14/05A·GOR19/05H·TRI29/07H·BRI12/08A·BIL20/08H·RUD02/09← 1. SNL2. SNL →
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.870.812.380.861.29
vs Stronger (11)0.452.360.603.200.331.67
vs Similar (19)1.051.580.912.001.251.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BeltinciBeltinci

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L20W22D12L30W33D11D31W12L21WA·ALU16/04H·BRI22/04A·NAF30/04H·TRI03/05A·FUŽ13/05H·BIS20/05H·PRI30/07H·TOL12/08A·BRI19/08H·BIL03/09
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.501.601.471.471.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.461.501.541.541.381.46
vs Weaker (4)2.001.502.001.002.002.00
Clean sheet %13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.5%
Under 1.5
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.0%
Under 2.5
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.8%
Under 3.5
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.5%
No
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
7.3%
0-1
6.6%
2-1
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
1-3
6.2%
0-0
4.9%
Tabor Sežana goals ↓
Beltinci goals →
01234
04.9%6.6%7.3%4.7%2.3%
14.1%11%9.6%6.2%3.0%
23.3%6.4%6.3%4.0%2.0%
31.4%2.8%2.7%1.8%0.9%
40.5%0.9%0.9%0.6%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tabor Sežana goals (down), columns = Beltinci goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Primorje
2.00
Nafta
1.93
Beltinci
1.87
Gorica
1.77
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Triglav
1.60
Bistrica
1.47
Rudar
1.23
Dekani
1.20
Bilje
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Dravinja
1.13
Krka
1.10
Tabor Sežana
1.00
Ilirija
1.00
Fužinar
0.80
Tabor Sežana is 0.87 points worse than Beltinci in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.87).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nafta
1.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Gorica
1.70
Beltinci
1.63
Primorje
1.63
Bistrica
1.50
Bilje
1.47
Triglav
1.47
Krka
1.33
Tabor Sežana
1.27
Dekani
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Fužinar
1.10
Rudar
1.10
Ilirija
1.03
Dravinja
0.97
Tabor Sežana is 0.37 goals worse than Beltinci in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 1.63).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.80
Primorje
0.83
Gorica
0.93
Nafta
1.03
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Dekani
1.23
Dravinja
1.40
Ilirija
1.47
Tolmin
1.50
Bistrica
1.53
Krka
1.63
Rudar
1.63
Bilje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.97
Fužinar
2.03
Tabor Sežana is 1.17 goals worse than Beltinci in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 0.80).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D00D10W01L00D01L10W06L01L10WA·CEL15/04H·MUR22/04H·RAD30/04A·BRA04/05H·MAR14/05A·GOR19/05H·TRI29/07H·BRI12/08A·BIL20/08H·RUD02/09← 1. SNL2. SNL →
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.930.381.250.360.57
vs Stronger (11)0.091.090.201.400.000.83
vs Similar (19)0.530.840.451.180.620.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BeltinciBeltinci

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W10W02L30W22D11D20W02L20WA·ALU16/04H·BRI22/04A·NAF30/04H·TRI03/05A·FUŽ13/05H·BIS20/05H·PRI30/07H·TOL12/08A·BRI19/08H·BIL03/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.600.930.670.930.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.810.580.850.690.770.46
vs Weaker (4)1.750.751.500.502.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L02L10W11D00D12L00D10W01LA·CEL15/04H·MUR22/04H·RAD30/04A·BRA04/05H·MAR14/05A·GOR19/05H·TRI29/07H·BRI12/08A·BIL20/08H·RUD02/09← 1. SNL2. SNL →
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.930.441.120.500.71
vs Stronger (11)0.361.270.401.800.330.83
vs Similar (19)0.530.740.450.820.620.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BeltinciBeltinci

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D12L10W00D11D00D11D10W01LA·ALU16/04H·BRI22/04A·NAF30/04H·TRI03/05A·FUŽ13/05H·BIS20/05H·PRI30/07H·TOL12/08A·BRI19/08H·BIL03/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.900.670.800.531.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.650.920.690.850.621.00
vs Weaker (4)0.250.750.500.500.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
Tabor Sežana and Beltinci have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Beltinci have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Beltinci have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Beltinci have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
TS wins
0
Draws
0
BEL wins

Head-to-head

Tabor Sežana vs Beltinci · H/A from TS
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/23HTS Vs Rudar1-1
20/08/23ABilje Vs TS1-1
12/08/23HTS Vs Brinje-Grosuplje0-6
29/07/23HTS Vs Triglav2-2
19/05/23AGorica Vs TS1-0
14/05/23HTS Vs Maribor1-1
04/05/23ABravo Vs TS1-1
30/04/23HTS Vs Radomlje1-2
22/04/23HTS Vs Mura1-2
15/04/23ACelje Vs TS0-0

BeltinciBeltinci

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/23HBEL Vs Bilje2-1
19/08/23ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs BEL2-1
12/08/23HBEL Vs Tolmin3-1
30/07/23HBEL Vs Primorje1-1
20/05/23HBEL Vs Bistrica3-3
13/05/23AFužinar Vs BEL0-3
03/05/23HBEL Vs Triglav1-2
30/04/23ANafta Vs BEL2-2
22/04/23HBEL Vs Brinje-Grosuplje2-0
16/04/23AAluminij Vs BEL2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tabor Sežana
Tabor Sežana
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 0 Wins / 6 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLDD0.68
HomeLDDLD0.62
AwayLDDLD0.74
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %8%10%5%
AVG goals2.653.002.26
Over 1.5 %75%81%68%
Over 2.5 %45%52%37%
Over 3.5 %32%38%26%
Scored0.820.710.95
Conceded1.822.291.32
BTTS55%52%58%
Clean Sheet12%5%21%
Corners9.338.919.69
Cards3.253.453.08
Beltinci
Beltinci
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWLW1.50
HomeLDDWW1.61
AwayWLDWL1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %41%44%38%
AVG goals3.063.172.94
Over 1.5 %91%94%88%
Over 2.5 %62%56%69%
Over 3.5 %29%28%31%
Scored1.591.721.44
Conceded1.471.441.50
BTTS68%67%69%
Clean Sheet18%17%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PrimorjePrimorje3060
57%
2.0
4925+24
2.5
70%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.60.8
-
2NaftaNafta3058
60%
1.9
5531+24
2.9
77%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.81.0
-
3BeltinciBeltinci3056
57%
1.9
4924+25
2.4
67%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.60.8
-
4GoricaGorica3053
50%
1.8
5128+23
2.6
67%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
5Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3052
50%
1.7
5235+17
2.9
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.71.2
-
6TriglavTriglav3048
47%
1.6
4435+9
2.6
80%
60%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.2
-
7BistricaBistrica3044
43%
1.5
4546-1
3.0
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.5
-
8RudarRudar3037
33%
1.2
3349-16
2.7
67%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.11.6
-
9DekaniDekani3036
30%
1.2
3437-3
2.4
60%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.2
-
10BiljeBilje3034
30%
1.1
4451-7
3.2
83%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.51.7
-
11TolminTolmin3034
27%
1.1
3445-11
2.6
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
12DravinjaDravinja3034
30%
1.1
2942-13
2.4
63%
50%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.4
-
13KrkaKrka3033
30%
1.1
4049-9
3.0
80%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.6
-
14IlirijaIlirija3030
23%
1.0
3144-13
2.5
77%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.5
-
15Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3030
23%
1.0
3859-21
3.2
83%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.32.0
-
16FužinarFužinar3024
20%
0.8
3361-28
3.1
80%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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