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Tabor Sežana vs Bistrica Result & Analysis

Date: 21/04/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 2-0
Tabor Sežana
Tabor Sežana
Vs
31%
24%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Bistrica
Bistrica
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Tabor Sežana’s recent five-game winning streak sets a high-scoring tone, yet the model still favours a Bistrica victory. The odds lean 45% for the away side, 31% for the home side and 24% for a draw, with the away win identified as the most likely outcome. The match is expected to see 3.6 goals on average, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 21% chance. The single score most likely to materialise is 1-1, with a 9.8% probability, reflecting the balanced offensive and defensive figures: Tabor Sežana scores 1.36 and concedes 2.64 at home, while Bistrica nets 1.5 and concedes 1.64 on the road against similarly-matched opponents. The model’s sole selection is an 87.9% chance that the total will exceed 1.5 goals. Thus the predicted outcome is an away win, a 1-1 scoreline, and a high-scoring affair with over 1.5 goals likely.

Results analysis

Tabor Sežana’s five-game winning streak carried them into a surprising home victory, 2-0 over Bistrica, overturning the model’s favourite, Away win, which had a 45% chance. The prediction was therefore wrong. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5, hit, with an 87.9% probability. The match finished with a 2-0 scoreline, giving the home side a win, contrary to the 45% away win probability. The most likely score of 1-1 had only a 9.8% chance, while 1-2 and 2-1 were 8.7% and 7.2% respectively. Bistrica’s recent form showed a two-game winning run, but they fell short in this encounter.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tabor Sežana win✓ Hit
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bistrica win✗ Miss
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W02L22D14L31W01L04L10W31W50WA·TRI04/11A·BEL12/11H·TOL18/11A·BRI02/03H·BIL09/03A·RUD17/03H·NAF22/03A·DEK29/03H·DRA06/04A·KRK12/04
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.202.031.332.531.071.53
vs Stronger (1)1.001.001.001.00--
vs Similar (29)1.212.071.362.641.071.53
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BistricaBistrica

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-551W13L10W13L30W13L20W15L11D11DH·RUD06/11A·NAF13/11H·DEK19/11A·DRA03/03H·KRK09/03H·TRI17/03A·ILI23/03H·GOR30/03A·FUŽ06/04H·PRI13/04
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.431.941.251.501.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.731.431.941.251.501.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%08%119%221%319%414%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.9%
Under 1.5
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
68.9%
Under 2.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.5%
Under 3.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
69.5%
No
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.8%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
7.2%
2-2
7.0%
1-3
5.7%
0-2
5.4%
0-1
4.7%
2-3
4.5%
Tabor Sežana goals ↓
Bistrica goals →
01234
03.8%4.7%5.4%3.5%1.7%
13.7%9.8%8.7%5.7%2.8%
23.7%7.2%7.0%4.5%2.2%
32.0%3.9%3.8%2.4%1.2%
40.8%1.5%1.5%1.0%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tabor Sežana goals (down), columns = Bistrica goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Primorje
2.00
Nafta
1.93
Beltinci
1.87
Gorica
1.77
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Triglav
1.60
Bistrica
1.47
Rudar
1.23
Dekani
1.20
Bilje
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Dravinja
1.13
Krka
1.10
Tabor Sežana
1.00
Ilirija
1.00
Fužinar
0.80
Tabor Sežana is 0.47 points worse than Bistrica in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.47).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nafta
1.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Gorica
1.70
Beltinci
1.63
Primorje
1.63
Bistrica
1.50
Bilje
1.47
Triglav
1.47
Krka
1.33
Tabor Sežana
1.27
Dekani
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Fužinar
1.10
Rudar
1.10
Ilirija
1.03
Dravinja
0.97
Tabor Sežana is 0.23 goals worse than Bistrica in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.80
Primorje
0.83
Gorica
0.93
Nafta
1.03
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Dekani
1.23
Dravinja
1.40
Ilirija
1.47
Tolmin
1.50
Bistrica
1.53
Krka
1.63
Rudar
1.63
Bilje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.97
Fužinar
2.03
Tabor Sežana is 0.43 goals worse than Bistrica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 1.53).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D01L02L10W01L02L10W20W20WA·TRI04/11A·BEL12/11H·TOL18/11A·BRI02/03H·BIL09/03A·RUD17/03H·NAF22/03A·DEK29/03H·DRA06/04A·KRK12/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.970.471.130.400.80
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (29)0.451.000.501.210.400.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BistricaBistrica

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W10W10W01L10W01L10W12L01L10WH·RUD06/11A·NAF13/11H·DEK19/11A·DRA03/03H·KRK09/03H·TRI17/03A·ILI23/03H·GOR30/03A·FUŽ06/04H·PRI13/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.501.000.440.790.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.900.501.000.440.790.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W02L21W12L21W00D02L00D11D30WA·TRI04/11A·BEL12/11H·TOL18/11A·BRI02/03H·BIL09/03A·RUD17/03H·NAF22/03A·DEK29/03H·DRA06/04A·KRK12/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.070.871.400.670.73
vs Stronger (1)1.001.001.001.00--
vs Similar (29)0.761.070.861.430.670.73
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BistricaBistrica

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W03L00D12L20W12L10W03L10W01LH·RUD06/11A·NAF13/11H·DEK19/11A·DRA03/03H·KRK09/03H·TRI17/03A·ILI23/03H·GOR30/03A·FUŽ06/04H·PRI13/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.930.940.810.711.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.830.930.940.810.711.07
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
Tabor Sežana's squad is €1m more valuable than Bistrica's (€2m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Bistrica have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Bistrica have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Bistrica have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
TS wins
0
Draws
1
BIS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tabor Sežana vs Bistrica · H/A from TS
DateH/AGameScore
30/09/23ABistrica Vs TS1-0

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/04/24AKrka Vs TS0-5
06/04/24HTS Vs Dravinja3-1
29/03/24ADekani Vs TS0-1
22/03/24HTS Vs Nafta0-4
17/03/24ARudar Vs TS1-0
09/03/24HTS Vs Bilje3-1
02/03/24ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs TS4-1
18/11/23HTS Vs Tolmin2-2
12/11/23ABeltinci Vs TS2-0
04/11/23ATriglav Vs TS1-2

BistricaBistrica

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/24HBIS Vs Primorje1-1
06/04/24AFužinar Vs BIS1-1
30/03/24HBIS Vs Gorica1-5
23/03/24AIlirija Vs BIS0-2
17/03/24HBIS Vs Triglav1-3
09/03/24HBIS Vs Krka3-0
03/03/24ADravinja Vs BIS3-1
19/11/23HBIS Vs Dekani1-0
13/11/23ANafta Vs BIS3-1
06/11/23HBIS Vs Rudar5-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tabor Sežana
Tabor Sežana
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWW0.78
HomeDDWLW0.72
AwayLLLWW0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%12%16%
AVG goals3.023.562.48
Over 1.5 %78%92%64%
Over 2.5 %54%68%40%
Over 3.5 %38%48%28%
Scored1.061.081.04
Conceded1.962.481.44
BTTS58%64%52%
Clean Sheet12%0%24%
Corners9.798.8910.60
Cards3.213.562.90
Bistrica
Bistrica
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDD1.40
HomeWWLLD1.69
AwayWLLWD1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%50%25%
AVG goals2.942.922.96
Over 1.5 %80%73%88%
Over 2.5 %56%54%58%
Over 3.5 %34%31%38%
Scored1.501.691.29
Conceded1.441.231.67
BTTS60%54%67%
Clean Sheet24%35%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PrimorjePrimorje3060
57%
2.0
4925+24
2.5
70%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.60.8
-
2NaftaNafta3058
60%
1.9
5531+24
2.9
77%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.81.0
-
3BeltinciBeltinci3056
57%
1.9
4924+25
2.4
67%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.60.8
-
4GoricaGorica3053
50%
1.8
5128+23
2.6
67%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
5Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3052
50%
1.7
5235+17
2.9
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.71.2
-
6TriglavTriglav3048
47%
1.6
4435+9
2.6
80%
60%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.2
-
7BistricaBistrica3044
43%
1.5
4546-1
3.0
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.5
-
8RudarRudar3037
33%
1.2
3349-16
2.7
67%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.11.6
-
9DekaniDekani3036
30%
1.2
3437-3
2.4
60%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.2
-
10BiljeBilje3034
30%
1.1
4451-7
3.2
83%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.51.7
-
11TolminTolmin3034
27%
1.1
3445-11
2.6
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
12DravinjaDravinja3034
30%
1.1
2942-13
2.4
63%
50%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.4
-
13KrkaKrka3033
30%
1.1
4049-9
3.0
80%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.6
-
14IlirijaIlirija3030
23%
1.0
3144-13
2.5
77%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.5
-
15Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3030
23%
1.0
3859-21
3.2
83%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.32.0
-
16FužinarFužinar3024
20%
0.8
3361-28
3.1
80%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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