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Tabor Sežana vs Bistrica Prediction & Stats

Date: 26/09/2026
Time: 22:00
Tabor Sežana
Tabor Sežana
Vs
38%
32%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Bistrica
Bistrica
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Tabor Sežana’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding only 0.75 goals per game against similarly ranked opposition, while Bistrica’s away form shows a slightly higher concession rate of 1.21 goals. The model favours a home win, with a 37% chance, a draw at 32%, and an away win at 31%. The expected total goals hover at 2.2, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.7% probability. Recent form offers a narrative: Tabor Sežana is on a four-game winning streak after a 6-0 triumph over Krško, while Bistrica comes off a win, having edged Bilje 4-1. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.8%), Under 5.5 (97.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.0%), Under 4.5 (92.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.1%), and Home under 2.5 goals (88.8%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tabor Sežana win
37.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bistrica win
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-612L02L12L01L15L20W30W10W60W10WA·BIL26/04H·BEL02/05A·BRI06/05H·TRI10/05A·SLO17/05H·RUD23/05A·JES08/08H·TRI14/08A·KRŠ23/08H·BRE28/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.101.000.601.931.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.251.291.000.751.501.83
vs Weaker (6)2.330.331.000.003.670.67
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BistricaBistrica

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-612L30W03L04L40W10W00D06L41W20WA·NAF25/04H·BIL30/04A·BEL06/05H·BRI09/05A·TRI16/05H·SLO23/05A·KRK07/08H·ILI15/08A·BIL22/08H·DRE29/08
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.331.801.471.201.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.311.381.541.621.081.15
vs Weaker (4)2.751.003.500.502.001.50
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
64.0%
Under 1.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
35.7%
Under 2.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
16.6%
Under 3.5
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.0%
No
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
13.3%
1-0
12.3%
0-1
10.4%
2-0
7.8%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
5.8%
Tabor Sežana goals ↓
Bistrica goals →
01234
013%10%5.8%1.9%0.5%
112%15%6.6%2.2%0.5%
27.8%7.7%3.8%1.2%0.3%
33.0%2.9%1.4%0.5%0.1%
40.8%0.8%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tabor Sežana goals (down), columns = Bistrica goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Tabor Sežana is 0.17 points better than Bistrica in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Tabor Sežana is 0.43 goals worse than Bistrica in terms of goals scored per game (1.23 vs 1.67).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Tabor Sežana is 0.10 goals better than Bistrica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.10 vs 1.20).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tabor Sežana or Draw
70.2%
Avg Implied -
38%
32%
30%
covers Tabor Sežana + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana or Bistrica
67.7%
Avg Implied -
38%
32%
30%
covers Tabor Sežana + Bistrica
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Bistrica
62.1%
Avg Implied -
38%
32%
30%
covers Draw + Bistrica
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5
Over
68.1%
Under
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5
Over
31.6%
Under
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 0.5
Over
62.6%
Under
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5
Over
25.8%
Under
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Tabor Sežana, so a minus line means Tabor Sežana give that many goals of a start and Bistrica receive them. At -1, Tabor Sežana must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tabor Sežana win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tabor Sežana)
Tabor Sežana -2
5.2%
Draw -2
11.1%
Bistrica +2
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tabor Sežana)
Tabor Sežana -1
16.4%
Draw -1
21.5%
Bistrica +1
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tabor Sežana)
Tabor Sežana +1
70.2%
Draw +1
18.3%
Bistrica -1
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tabor Sežana)
Tabor Sežana +2
88.5%
Draw +2
8.3%
Bistrica -2
3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W00D02L00D01L10W20W00D50W10WA·BIL26/04H·BEL02/05A·BRI06/05H·TRI10/05A·SLO17/05H·RUD23/05A·JES08/08H·TRI14/08A·KRŠ23/08H·BRE28/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.470.470.270.930.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.460.540.500.330.420.75
vs Weaker (6)1.670.170.330.003.000.33
Clean sheet %70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BistricaBistrica

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W01L02L10W00D00D02L00D20WA·NAF25/04H·BIL30/04A·BEL06/05H·BRI09/05A·TRI16/05H·SLO23/05A·KRK07/08H·ILI15/08A·BIL22/08H·DRE29/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.670.730.800.530.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.500.690.540.850.460.54
vs Weaker (4)1.500.502.000.501.000.50
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L02L10W01L14L10W10W10W10W00DA·BIL26/04H·BEL02/05A·BRI06/05H·TRI10/05A·SLO17/05H·RUD23/05A·JES08/08H·TRI14/08A·KRŠ23/08H·BRE28/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.630.530.331.000.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.790.750.500.421.081.08
vs Weaker (6)0.670.170.670.000.670.33
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BistricaBistrica

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L20W02L02L30W10W00D04L41W00DA·NAF25/04H·BIL30/04A·BEL06/05H·BRI09/05A·TRI16/05H·SLO23/05A·KRK07/08H·ILI15/08A·BIL22/08H·DRE29/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.671.070.670.670.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.810.691.000.770.620.62
vs Weaker (4)1.250.501.500.001.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.8%-------
Under 6.599.4%-------
Away under 3.5 goals98.2%-------
Under 5.597.8%-------
Home under 3.5 goals97.1%-------
Under 4.593.5%-------
Away under 2.5 goals92.3%-------
Home under 2.5 goals89.2%-------
Home +2 handicap88.5%-------
Away +2 handicap83.6%-------
Under 3.583.4%-------
Away under 1.5 goals74.2%-------
Home or Draw70.2%-------
Home +1 handicap70.2%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Tabor Sežana's squad is €1m more valuable than Bistrica's (€2m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Bistrica have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Bistrica have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Bistrica have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
2
TS wins
2
Draws
2
BIS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tabor Sežana vs Bistrica · H/A from TS
DateH/AGameScore
12/04/26ABistrica Vs TS2-1
28/09/25HTS Vs Bistrica2-1
27/04/25ABistrica Vs TS0-0
12/10/24HTS Vs Bistrica0-0
21/04/24HTS Vs Bistrica2-0
30/09/23ABistrica Vs TS1-0

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HTS Vs Brežice1-0
23/08/26AKrško Vs TS0-6
14/08/26HTS Vs Triglav1-0
08/08/26AJesenice Vs TS0-3
23/05/26HTS Vs Rudar2-0
17/05/26ASlovan Ljubljana Vs TS5-1
10/05/26HTS Vs Triglav0-1
06/05/26ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs TS2-1
02/05/26HTS Vs Beltinci0-2
26/04/26ABilje Vs TS2-1

BistricaBistrica

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HBIS Vs Dren Vrhnika2-0
22/08/26ABilje Vs BIS1-4
15/08/26HBIS Vs Ilirija0-6
07/08/26AKrka Vs BIS0-0
23/05/26HBIS Vs Slovan Ljubljana1-0
16/05/26ATriglav Vs BIS0-4
09/05/26HBIS Vs Brinje-Grosuplje0-4
06/05/26ABeltinci Vs BIS3-0
30/04/26HBIS Vs Bilje3-0
25/04/26ANafta Vs BIS2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tabor Sežana
Tabor Sežana
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.80
HomeLLWWW1.96
AwayLLLWW1.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%60%44%
AVG goals2.542.083.00
Over 1.5 %70%60%80%
Over 2.5 %44%24%64%
Over 3.5 %24%16%32%
Scored1.521.321.72
Conceded1.020.761.28
BTTS46%32%60%
Clean Sheet44%48%40%
Corners---
Cards---
Bistrica
Bistrica
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWW1.64
HomeWLWLW1.92
AwayLLWDW1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%58%33%
AVG goals3.083.352.79
Over 1.5 %80%85%75%
Over 2.5 %64%62%67%
Over 3.5 %38%38%38%
Scored1.862.081.62
Conceded1.221.271.17
BTTS46%46%46%
Clean Sheet38%38%38%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana412
100%
3.0
110+11
2.8
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.80.0
-
2IlirijaIlirija49
75%
2.2
102+8
3.0
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1002.50.5
-
3Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana49
75%
2.2
87+1
3.8
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.8
-
4JeseniceJesenice47
50%
1.8
65+1
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.2
-
5BistricaBistrica47
50%
1.8
67-1
3.2
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
-
6TriglavTriglav36
67%
2.0
52+3
2.3
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.70.7
-
7BeltinciBeltinci46
50%
1.5
86+2
3.5
100%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.01.5
-
8RudarRudar46
50%
1.5
75+2
3.0
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.81.2
-
9Dren VrhnikaDren Vrhnika46
50%
1.5
44+0
2.0
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
10BiljeBilje46
50%
1.5
710-3
4.2
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.82.5
-
11PrimorjePrimorje46
50%
1.5
58-3
3.2
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.0
-
12KrškoKrško45
25%
1.2
38-5
2.8
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.0
-
13DekaniDekani44
25%
1.0
33+0
1.5
50%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.80.8
-
14KrkaKrka41
0%
0.2
49-5
3.2
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.02.2
-
15BrežiceBrežice30
0%
0.0
25-3
2.3
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.7
-
16DravinjaDravinja40
0%
0.0
210-8
3.0
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.52.5
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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