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Tabor Sežana vs Dekani Result & Analysis

Date: 16/09/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 1-2
Tabor Sežana
Tabor Sežana
Vs
16%
25%
60%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dekani
Dekani
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The model favours an away win, with Dekani expected to triumph 60% of the time, while a home win sits at 16% and a draw at 25%. The average goal tally for this fixture is 2.7, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.7% chance. Tabor Sežana, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 0.91 goals scored and 2.36 conceded. Dekani, on the road, also averages 0.91 goals scored but only 0.55 conceded against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 76.1% and Under 3.5 goals at 71.5%. The home side’s recent five-game winning streak, capped by a 1-0 win over Brežice, contrasts with Dekani’s last five games (DLLWW) and a 0-0 draw against Krško. These figures suggest a tightly contested match where Dekani’s defensive solidity could prove decisive.

Results analysis

The model’s prediction proved spot on, with Dekani securing a 1-2 away win, extending their recent form that included a draw before this match. The pre-match favourite was an away win at 60%, and the model’s call was correct. Over 1.5 goals, with a 76.1% probability, hit as the match produced two goals. Under 3.5, at 71.5%, also hit. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 11.7%, but the actual 1-2 result reflected the stronger defensive showing from Dekani, who conceded only 0.55 goals per game on the road. The model’s selections largely came through, confirming its accuracy.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tabor Sežana win✗ Miss
16.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dekani win✓ Hit
59.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-612L11D11D01L22D06L11D11D15L00DH·RAD30/04A·BRA04/05H·MAR14/05A·GOR19/05H·TRI29/07H·BRI12/08A·BIL20/08H·RUD02/09H·BEL06/09A·NAF09/09← 1. SNL2. SNL →
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.930.812.620.861.14
vs Stronger (10)0.502.400.603.200.401.60
vs Similar (20)1.001.700.912.361.110.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DekaniDekani

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D13L00D41W01L01L00D10W30W11DA·BRI30/04H·NAF04/05A·TRI13/05H·FUŽ20/05H·DRA29/07A·ILI13/08H·GOR19/08A·KRK29/08A·FUŽ02/09H·PRI10/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.800.860.860.810.75
vs Stronger (11)0.451.180.331.170.601.20
vs Similar (19)1.050.581.250.620.910.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.1%
Under 1.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.5%
Under 2.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.5%
Under 3.5
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.4%
No
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
0-2
11.4%
0-1
11.4%
1-2 ✓
9.8%
0-0
7.8%
0-3
7.0%
1-3
6.0%
1-0
4.7%
Tabor Sežana goals ↓
Dekani goals →
01234
07.8%11%11%7.0%3.2%
14.7%12%9.8%6.0%2.8%
22.5%4.6%4.2%2.6%1.2%
30.7%1.3%1.2%0.7%0.3%
40.2%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tabor Sežana goals (down), columns = Dekani goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Primorje
2.00
Nafta
1.93
Beltinci
1.87
Gorica
1.77
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Triglav
1.60
Bistrica
1.47
Rudar
1.23
Dekani
1.20
Bilje
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Dravinja
1.13
Krka
1.10
Tabor Sežana
1.00
Ilirija
1.00
Fužinar
0.80
Tabor Sežana is 0.20 points worse than Dekani in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.20).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nafta
1.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Gorica
1.70
Beltinci
1.63
Primorje
1.63
Bistrica
1.50
Bilje
1.47
Triglav
1.47
Krka
1.33
Tabor Sežana
1.27
Dekani
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Fužinar
1.10
Rudar
1.10
Ilirija
1.03
Dravinja
0.97
Tabor Sežana is 0.13 goals better than Dekani in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 1.13).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.80
Primorje
0.83
Gorica
0.93
Nafta
1.03
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Dekani
1.23
Dravinja
1.40
Ilirija
1.47
Tolmin
1.50
Bistrica
1.53
Krka
1.63
Rudar
1.63
Bilje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.97
Fužinar
2.03
Tabor Sežana is 0.73 goals worse than Dekani in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 1.23).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W01L00D01L10W06L01L10W03L00DH·RAD30/04A·BRA04/05H·MAR14/05A·GOR19/05H·TRI29/07H·BRI12/08A·BIL20/08H·RUD02/09H·BEL06/09A·NAF09/09← 1. SNL2. SNL →
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.970.381.380.360.50
vs Stronger (10)0.101.100.201.400.000.80
vs Similar (20)0.500.900.451.360.560.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DekaniDekani

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L00D21W00D01L00D00D30W11DA·BRI30/04H·NAF04/05A·TRI13/05H·FUŽ20/05H·DRA29/07A·ILI13/08H·GOR19/08A·KRK29/08A·FUŽ02/09H·PRI10/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.400.570.500.500.31
vs Stronger (11)0.270.640.170.670.400.60
vs Similar (19)0.680.260.880.380.550.18
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W11D00D12L00D10W01L12L00DH·RAD30/04A·BRA04/05H·MAR14/05A·GOR19/05H·TRI29/07H·BRI12/08A·BIL20/08H·RUD02/09H·BEL06/09A·NAF09/09← 1. SNL2. SNL →
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.970.441.250.500.64
vs Stronger (10)0.401.300.401.800.400.80
vs Similar (20)0.500.800.451.000.560.56
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DekaniDekani

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L00D20W01L00D00D10W00D00DA·BRI30/04H·NAF04/05A·TRI13/05H·FUŽ20/05H·DRA29/07A·ILI13/08H·GOR19/08A·KRK29/08A·FUŽ02/09H·PRI10/09
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.400.290.360.310.44
vs Stronger (11)0.180.550.170.500.200.60
vs Similar (19)0.370.320.380.250.360.36
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
Tabor Sežana and Dekani have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Dekani have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Dekani have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Dekani have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
TS wins
0
Draws
0
DEK wins

Head-to-head

Tabor Sežana vs Dekani · H/A from TS
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/09/23ANafta Vs TS0-0
06/09/23HTS Vs Beltinci1-5
02/09/23HTS Vs Rudar1-1
20/08/23ABilje Vs TS1-1
12/08/23HTS Vs Brinje-Grosuplje0-6
29/07/23HTS Vs Triglav2-2
19/05/23AGorica Vs TS1-0
14/05/23HTS Vs Maribor1-1
04/05/23ABravo Vs TS1-1
30/04/23HTS Vs Radomlje1-2

DekaniDekani

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/09/23HDEK Vs Primorje1-1
02/09/23AFužinar Vs DEK0-3
29/08/23AKrka Vs DEK0-1
19/08/23HDEK Vs Gorica0-0
13/08/23AIlirija Vs DEK1-0
29/07/23HDEK Vs Dravinja0-1
20/05/23HDEK Vs Fužinar4-1
13/05/23ATriglav Vs DEK0-0
04/05/23HDEK Vs Nafta1-3
30/04/23ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs DEK1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tabor Sežana
Tabor Sežana
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 0 Wins / 6 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLD0.67
HomeDDLDL0.59
AwayDDLDD0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %7%9%5%
AVG goals2.673.142.15
Over 1.5 %74%82%65%
Over 2.5 %45%55%35%
Over 3.5 %33%41%25%
Scored0.810.730.90
Conceded1.862.411.25
BTTS55%55%55%
Clean Sheet14%5%25%
Corners9.338.919.69
Cards3.253.453.08
Dekani
Dekani
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWD1.19
HomeLWLDD1.06
AwayDDLWW1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %25%22%28%
AVG goals1.781.781.78
Over 1.5 %50%50%50%
Over 2.5 %25%17%33%
Over 3.5 %17%17%17%
Scored0.890.830.94
Conceded0.890.940.83
BTTS36%39%33%
Clean Sheet39%28%50%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PrimorjePrimorje3060
57%
2.0
4925+24
2.5
70%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.60.8
-
2NaftaNafta3058
60%
1.9
5531+24
2.9
77%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.81.0
-
3BeltinciBeltinci3056
57%
1.9
4924+25
2.4
67%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.60.8
-
4GoricaGorica3053
50%
1.8
5128+23
2.6
67%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
5Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3052
50%
1.7
5235+17
2.9
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.71.2
-
6TriglavTriglav3048
47%
1.6
4435+9
2.6
80%
60%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.2
-
7BistricaBistrica3044
43%
1.5
4546-1
3.0
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.5
-
8RudarRudar3037
33%
1.2
3349-16
2.7
67%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.11.6
-
9DekaniDekani3036
30%
1.2
3437-3
2.4
60%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.2
-
10BiljeBilje3034
30%
1.1
4451-7
3.2
83%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.51.7
-
11TolminTolmin3034
27%
1.1
3445-11
2.6
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
12DravinjaDravinja3034
30%
1.1
2942-13
2.4
63%
50%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.4
-
13KrkaKrka3033
30%
1.1
4049-9
3.0
80%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.6
-
14IlirijaIlirija3030
23%
1.0
3144-13
2.5
77%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.5
-
15Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3030
23%
1.0
3859-21
3.2
83%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.32.0
-
16FužinarFužinar3024
20%
0.8
3361-28
3.1
80%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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