Defensive solidity will shape this encounter, as the expected total of just 2.1 goals signals a tight, low-scoring affair. The model favours a home win, with a 51% chance for Tabor Sežana, 30% for a draw and 19% for Dravinja. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 for the hosts, a 15.4% probability. Tabor Sežana’s home form against similar opponents shows a modest 1.0 goal per game scored and 0.75 conceded, while Dravinja, on the road, averages 1.1 scored and 1.5 conceded. The single most likely total of 2 goals carries a 28% probability. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.3%), Under 5.5 (97.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (96.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.9%), Home +2 handicap (94.2%) and Under 4.5 (93.6%). Tabor Sežana’s recent four-game winning streak, capped by a 6-0 triumph over Krško, contrasts with Dravinja’s return from three defeats, setting the stage for a cautious, defensive contest.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tabor Sežana win
51.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dravinja win
17.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tabor Sežana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.10
1.00
0.60
1.93
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.25
1.29
1.00
0.75
1.50
1.83
vs Weaker (6)
2.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
3.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dravinja
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.53
1.13
1.60
1.00
1.47
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
2.11
1.50
2.50
0.80
1.80
vs Similar (19)
1.11
1.32
1.10
1.20
1.11
1.44
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
61.9%
Under 1.5
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
33.7%
Under 2.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
15.2%
Under 3.5
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
38.4%
No
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
16.2%
0-0
14.1%
1-1
13.3%
2-0
11.8%
2-1
8.2%
0-1
7.7%
3-0
5.3%
1-2
4.2%
Tabor Sežana goals ↓
Dravinja goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
7.7%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
1
16%
13%
4.2%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
8.2%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
3
5.3%
3.7%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
4
1.8%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tabor Sežana goals (down), columns = Dravinja goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Tabor Sežana is 0.43 points better than Dravinja in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Tabor Sežana is 0.17 goals better than Dravinja in terms of goals scored per game (1.23 vs 1.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Tabor Sežana is 0.37 goals better than Dravinja in terms of goals conceded per game (1.10 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tabor Sežana or Draw
82.1%
Avg Implied -
51%
31%
18%
covers Tabor Sežana + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana or Dravinja
69.4%
Avg Implied -
51%
31%
18%
covers Tabor Sežana + Dravinja
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dravinja
48.5%
Avg Implied -
51%
31%
18%
covers Draw + Dravinja
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5
Over
74.2%
Under
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5
Over
39.2%
Under
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5
Over
15.6%
Under
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 3.5
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 0.5
Over
50.1%
Under
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 1.5
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 2.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tabor Sežana, so a minus line means Tabor Sežana give that many goals of a start and Dravinja receive them. At -1, Tabor Sežana must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tabor Sežana win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tabor Sežana)
Tabor Sežana -2
9.6%
Draw -2
16.0%
Dravinja +2
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tabor Sežana)
Tabor Sežana -1
25.6%
Draw -1
25.8%
Dravinja +1
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tabor Sežana)
Tabor Sežana +1
82.1%
Draw +1
12.7%
Dravinja -1
5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tabor Sežana)
Tabor Sežana +2
94.7%
Draw +2
4.2%
Dravinja -2
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tabor Sežana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.47
0.47
0.27
0.93
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.54
0.50
0.33
0.42
0.75
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.17
0.33
0.00
3.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dravinja
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.40
0.80
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.89
0.75
1.00
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.74
0.30
0.80
0.56
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.6%
Under 0.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.2%
Under 1.5
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.1%
Under 2.5
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
58.3%
Under
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 0.5 HT
Over
31.0%
Under
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tabor Sežana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.53
0.33
1.00
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.75
0.50
0.42
1.08
1.08
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dravinja
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.73
0.80
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.22
0.75
1.50
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.58
0.80
0.40
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.9%
Under 0.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.1%
Under 1.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.1%
Under 2.5
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
62.0%
Under
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
24.8%
Under
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 0.5 2H
Over
39.1%
Under
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 1.5 2H
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Tabor Sežana and Dravinja have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Dravinja have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Dravinja have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Dravinja have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ilirija
Slovan Ljubljana
Jesenice
Bistrica
Triglav
Beltinci
Rudar
Dren Vrhnika
Bilje
Primorje
Krško
Dekani
Krka
Brežice