Tabor Sežana’s recent five-game winning streak and a 1-0 victory over Brežice set a defensive tone for this low-scoring affair. The model favours a home win, with a 52% chance, a draw at 30%, and an away win at 18%. The expected total goals sit at 2.1, most likely yielding a 2-goal match. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Tabor Sežana, with a 15.5% probability. Home form shows an average of 1.0 goal scored and 0.75 conceded against similar opposition, while Rudar averages 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded on the road. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.3%), Under 5.5 (97.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (96.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.7%), Home +2 handicap (94.4%) and Under 4.5 (93.6%). These selections reflect a tight, defensively dominated match where the home side’s edge is clear.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tabor Sežana win
51.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rudar win
18.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tabor Sežana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.10
1.00
0.60
1.93
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.25
1.29
1.00
0.75
1.50
1.83
vs Weaker (6)
2.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
3.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rudar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.20
2.13
0.87
1.13
1.53
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
2.29
1.33
2.33
1.50
2.25
vs Similar (21)
1.76
0.81
2.45
0.45
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
63.8%
Under 1.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
35.6%
Under 2.5
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
16.5%
Under 3.5
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
40.1%
No
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.5%
1-1
13.4%
0-0
13.2%
2-0
11.6%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
7.5%
3-0
5.4%
1-2
4.4%
Tabor Sežana goals ↓
Rudar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
7.5%
3.2%
0.8%
0.1%
1
15%
13%
4.4%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
8.5%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
3
5.4%
3.9%
1.4%
0.3%
0.1%
4
1.9%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tabor Sežana goals (down), columns = Rudar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Tabor Sežana is 0.43 points better than Rudar in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Tabor Sežana is 0.30 goals worse than Rudar in terms of goals scored per game (1.23 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Tabor Sežana is 0.20 goals better than Rudar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.10 vs 1.30).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tabor Sežana or Draw
81.7%
Avg Implied -
52%
30%
18%
covers Tabor Sežana + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana or Rudar
70.0%
Avg Implied -
52%
30%
18%
covers Tabor Sežana + Rudar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Rudar
48.4%
Avg Implied -
52%
30%
18%
covers Draw + Rudar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5
Over
75.2%
Under
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5
Over
40.6%
Under
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 0.5
Over
51.7%
Under
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tabor Sežana, so a minus line means Tabor Sežana give that many goals of a start and Rudar receive them. At -1, Tabor Sežana must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tabor Sežana win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tabor Sežana)
Tabor Sežana -2
10.0%
Draw -2
16.1%
Rudar +2
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tabor Sežana)
Tabor Sežana -1
26.1%
Draw -1
25.5%
Rudar +1
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tabor Sežana)
Tabor Sežana +1
81.7%
Draw +1
12.7%
Rudar -1
5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tabor Sežana)
Tabor Sežana +2
94.4%
Draw +2
4.4%
Rudar -2
1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tabor Sežana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.47
0.47
0.27
0.93
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.54
0.50
0.33
0.42
0.75
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.17
0.33
0.00
3.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rudar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.93
0.53
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.14
1.33
1.33
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.33
0.91
0.36
0.90
0.30
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tabor Sežana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.53
0.33
1.00
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.75
0.50
0.42
1.08
1.08
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rudar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
1.20
0.33
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.14
0.00
1.00
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.48
1.55
0.09
0.10
0.90
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Tabor Sežana and Rudar have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Rudar have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Rudar have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Rudar have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ilirija
Slovan Ljubljana
Jesenice
Bistrica
Triglav
Beltinci
Dren Vrhnika
Bilje
Primorje
Krško
Dekani
Krka
Brežice
Dravinja