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Tabor Sežana vs Triglav Result & Analysis

Date: 14/08/2026
Time: 18:00
Final 1-0
Tabor Sežana
Tabor Sežana
Vs
26%
32%
42%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Triglav
Triglav
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Tabor Sežana's recent form has been impressive, on a 2-game winning run, but they face a tough test against Triglav. The away side has been solid on the road, scoring 2.45 goals and conceding just 0.55 against weaker opponents, while Tabor Sežana has struggled at home, failing to score and conceding 1.5 goals against stronger teams.

The model predicts a 43% chance of Triglav winning, with a 32% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of Tabor Sežana taking the win. The expected total goals is 2.1, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 14.4% chance.

The model's selection is the away win, with a high probability of Triglav's away side scoring and Tabor Sežana's home side conceding. The model's selection, Under 3.5, has a high probability of 83.2%.

Results analysis

Tabor Sežana pulled off a stunning upset, defeating Triglav 1-0 at home, extending their 3-game winning run. The win marks a surprising turn of events, given that Triglav were the pre-match favourite with a 42% chance of winning. Unfortunately for the model, its call was incorrect, selecting Triglav to win away. The model's selection also came with a 26% probability of a home win, which ultimately materialized. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks included Under 3.5, which hit with an 83.6% probability. The most likely outcome was a 1-1 draw, but the actual result was a narrow 1-0 victory for Tabor Sežana.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tabor Sežana win✓ Hit
26.1%
Avg Implied 29.8% · @ 2.99
Edge
-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.20
Betfair
3.10
Dafabet
3.05
Betano
3.05
1xBet
3.03
Draw✗ Miss
32.0%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.18
Edge
+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.35
Pinnacle
3.32
10Bet
3.30
Betano
3.30
Marathonbet
3.28
Triglav win✗ Miss
42.0%
Avg Implied 42.2% · @ 2.11
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.20
Dafabet
2.20
William Hil
2.15
10Bet
2.15
1xBet
2.14

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-532W12L02L12L02L12L01L15L20W30WA·ILI03/04A·BIS12/04H·NAF17/04A·BIL26/04H·BEL02/05A·BRI06/05H·TRI10/05A·SLO17/05H·RUD23/05A·JES08/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.101.000.641.621.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.241.241.000.751.461.69
vs Weaker (5)1.800.401.000.002.330.67
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Triglav) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TriglavTriglav

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W21W10W40W30W20W10W04L11D10WA·KRK03/04H·DRA11/04A·GOR18/04H·KRŠ24/04A·JES30/04H·DEK06/05A·TAB10/05H·BIS16/05A·NAF22/05A·DRE07/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.400.932.731.002.070.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.151.231.331.501.001.00
vs Weaker (17)3.350.713.670.673.000.75
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
63.8%
@ 1.25-8.0%
Under 1.5
36.2%
@ 3.17+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
Under
10Bet
3.50
1xBet
3.28
Marathonbet
3.28
Betano
3.15
BetVictor
2.63
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
35.5%
@ 1.83-14.8%
Under 2.5
64.5%
@ 1.85+14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
SBO
1.86
Bet365
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.95
Unibet
1.94
10Bet
1.91
SBO
1.90
Betano
1.88
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.4%
@ 2.94-14.0%
Under 3.5
83.6%
@ 1.29+14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.14
Marathonbet
3.14
10Bet
3.00
Betano
2.80
BetVictor
2.63
Under
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
BetVictor
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.1%
@ 1.65-11.5%
No
56.9%
@ 1.98+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
10Bet
1.65
William Hil
1.65
Betano
1.62
No
William Hil
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.02
1xBet
1.99
Marathonbet
1.96

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%@ 5.81+7.2%
0-0
13.4%@ 8.96+8.7%
0-1
13.3%@ 7.49+7.7%
1-0 ✓
9.6%@ 9.31+5.0%
0-2
8.9%@ 10.16+4.7%
1-2
8.0%@ 8.23+2.9%
2-1
5.9%@ 9.95+1.7%
2-0
4.9%@ 14.91+2.1%
Tabor Sežana goals ↓
Triglav goals →
01234
013%13%8.9%3.6%1.1%
19.6%15%8.0%3.2%1.0%
24.9%5.9%3.6%1.5%0.4%
31.5%1.8%1.1%0.4%0.1%
40.3%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tabor Sežana goals (down), columns = Triglav goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Tabor Sežana is 0.47 points worse than Triglav in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 2.13).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Tabor Sežana is 1.17 goals worse than Triglav in terms of goals scored per game (1.23 vs 2.40).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Tabor Sežana is 0.17 goals worse than Triglav in terms of goals conceded per game (1.10 vs 0.93).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D02L10W00D02L00D01L10W20WA·ILI03/04A·BIS12/04H·NAF17/04A·BIL26/04H·BEL02/05A·BRI06/05H·TRI10/05A·SLO17/05H·RUD23/05A·JES08/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.470.430.290.690.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.480.520.500.330.460.69
vs Weaker (5)1.000.200.000.001.670.33
Clean sheet %70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Triglav) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TriglavTriglav

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W11D00D10W10W10W00D01L00D00DA·KRK03/04H·DRA11/04A·GOR18/04H·KRŠ24/04A·JES30/04H·DEK06/05A·TAB10/05H·BIS16/05A·NAF22/05A·DRE07/08
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.471.130.471.000.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.540.540.830.670.290.43
vs Weaker (17)1.470.411.330.331.620.50
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W12L00D02L02L10W01L14L10W10WA·ILI03/04A·BIS12/04H·NAF17/04A·BIL26/04H·BEL02/05A·BRI06/05H·TRI10/05A·SLO17/05H·RUD23/05A·JES08/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.630.570.360.940.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.760.720.500.421.001.00
vs Weaker (5)0.800.201.000.000.670.33
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Triglav) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TriglavTriglav

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W10W30W20W10W10W03L11D10WA·KRK03/04H·DRA11/04A·GOR18/04H·KRŠ24/04A·JES30/04H·DEK06/05A·TAB10/05H·BIS16/05A·NAF22/05A·DRE07/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.471.600.531.070.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.620.690.500.830.710.57
vs Weaker (17)1.880.292.330.331.380.25
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.583.6%1.29
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
BetVictor
1.22
+14.0%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Tabor Sežana and Triglav have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Triglav have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Triglav have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Tabor Sežana and Triglav have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
3
TS wins
1
Draws
2
TRI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tabor Sežana vs Triglav · H/A from TS
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/26HTS Vs Triglav0-1
02/11/25ATriglav Vs TS0-1
18/04/25HTS Vs Triglav2-0
04/10/24ATriglav Vs TS3-2
04/11/23ATriglav Vs TS1-2
29/07/23HTS Vs Triglav2-2

Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26AJesenice Vs TS0-3
23/05/26HTS Vs Rudar2-0
17/05/26ASlovan Ljubljana Vs TS5-1
10/05/26HTS Vs Triglav0-1
06/05/26ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs TS2-1
02/05/26HTS Vs Beltinci0-2
26/04/26ABilje Vs TS2-1
17/04/26HTS Vs Nafta0-2
12/04/26ABistrica Vs TS2-1
03/04/26AIlirija Vs TS2-3

TriglavTriglav

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/08/26ADren Vrhnika Vs TRI0-1
22/05/26ANafta Vs TRI1-1
16/05/26HTRI Vs Bistrica0-4
10/05/26ATabor Sežana Vs TRI0-1
06/05/26HTRI Vs Dekani2-0
30/04/26AJesenice Vs TRI0-3
24/04/26HTRI Vs Krško4-0
18/04/26AGorica Vs TRI0-1
11/04/26HTRI Vs Dravinja2-1
03/04/26AKrka Vs TRI0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tabor Sežana
Tabor Sežana
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWW1.76
HomeWLLLW1.83
AwayLLLLW1.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%54%46%
AVG goals2.522.252.77
Over 1.5 %72%67%77%
Over 2.5 %44%29%58%
Over 3.5 %24%21%27%
Scored1.461.381.54
Conceded1.060.881.23
BTTS48%38%58%
Clean Sheet42%42%42%
Corners---
Cards---
Triglav
Triglav
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDW2.12
HomeWWWWL2.00
AwayWWWDW2.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %68%64%72%
AVG goals3.484.082.88
Over 1.5 %80%88%72%
Over 2.5 %58%72%44%
Over 3.5 %44%60%28%
Scored2.422.881.96
Conceded1.061.200.92
BTTS38%40%36%
Clean Sheet46%44%48%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana412
100%
3.0
110+11
2.8
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.80.0
-
2IlirijaIlirija49
75%
2.2
102+8
3.0
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1002.50.5
-
3Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana49
75%
2.2
87+1
3.8
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.8
-
4JeseniceJesenice47
50%
1.8
65+1
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.2
-
5BistricaBistrica47
50%
1.8
67-1
3.2
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
-
6TriglavTriglav36
67%
2.0
52+3
2.3
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.70.7
-
7BeltinciBeltinci46
50%
1.5
86+2
3.5
100%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.01.5
-
8RudarRudar46
50%
1.5
75+2
3.0
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.81.2
-
9Dren VrhnikaDren Vrhnika46
50%
1.5
44+0
2.0
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
10BiljeBilje46
50%
1.5
710-3
4.2
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.82.5
-
11PrimorjePrimorje46
50%
1.5
58-3
3.2
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.0
-
12KrškoKrško45
25%
1.2
38-5
2.8
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.0
-
13DekaniDekani44
25%
1.0
33+0
1.5
50%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.80.8
-
14KrkaKrka41
0%
0.2
49-5
3.2
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.02.2
-
15BrežiceBrežice30
0%
0.0
25-3
2.3
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.7
-
16DravinjaDravinja40
0%
0.0
210-8
3.0
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.52.5
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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