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Tauras vs Be1 NFA Result & Analysis

Date: 26/04/2025
Time: 11:00
Final 1-0
Tauras
Tauras
Vs
69%
20%
11%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Tauras are the clear favourite, with a 69% chance of victory, a 20% chance of a draw and only 11% for Be1 NFA to win. The model picks a home win, driven by Tauras’ strong home form against tougher opponents and their recent draw streak, while Be1 NFA, though on a three-game winning run, has struggled away from home. The expected total is three goals, but the most likely total is two, with a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0, with a 11.9% chance, reflecting Tauras’ edge at home. Tauras average one goal scored and 1.5 conceded at home against stronger teams; Be1 NFA average 1.12 scored and 1.38 conceded away against weaker sides. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.5% probability.

Results analysis

Tauras, coming off a draw, extended their recent form with a 1-0 win over Be1 NFA, who were on a three-game winning streak. The match finished 1-0, a home win that matched the model’s favourite, which was correctly predicted with a 69% probability. The total goals scored, one, was far below the model’s expected total of 3.0 and the most likely total of 2. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5, with an 81.5% probability, missed as only one goal was scored. All figures are reported exactly as provided.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tauras win✓ Hit
68.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA win✗ Miss
11.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TaurasTauras

Last 10 – goals for & against
130-1321W13L01L10W60W00D30W20W130W31WH·NEV19/10A·FA 25/10H·BE102/11A·BFA08/11H·PAN08/03A·FA 16/03H·MIN29/03A·ŽAL04/04A·SEN11/04H·TRA19/04
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
3.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.471.002.500.882.431.14
vs Stronger (9)1.001.561.001.501.001.67
vs Similar (10)3.400.802.400.804.400.80
vs Weaker (11)2.820.734.400.201.501.17
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W10W21W01L11D04L00D12L30W03LA·TAU02/11H·FK 08/11H·SUD17/11A·SUD23/11H·ŽAL08/03A·TRA15/03H·JON28/03H·BAB04/04A·EUF13/04A·NEP18/04← A Lyga1 Lyga →
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.032.120.650.921.54
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)1.201.301.800.800.601.80
vs Weaker (20)1.800.902.250.581.121.38
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.5%
Under 1.5
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.5%
Under 2.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.1%
Under 3.5
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.3%
No
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.9%
1-0 ✓
9.8%
2-1
9.6%
1-1
9.5%
3-0
8.9%
3-1
7.2%
0-0
5.7%
4-0
4.9%
Tauras goals ↓
Be1 NFA goals →
01234
05.7%3.0%1.6%0.4%0.1%
19.8%9.5%3.5%0.9%0.2%
212%9.6%3.9%1.0%0.2%
38.9%7.2%2.9%0.8%0.2%
44.9%4.0%1.6%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tauras goals (down), columns = Be1 NFA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.63
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.23
Tauras
2.07
Babrungas
1.93
BFA
1.83
Atmosfera
1.60
Jonava
1.40
Žalgiris II
1.40
Minija
1.20
Hegelmann II
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
Ekranas
0.97
FA Šiauliai II
0.94
Kauno Žalgiris II
0.90
Nevėžis
0.87
Panevėžys II
0.70
Sveikata
0.50
Tauras is 1.07 points better than Be1 NFA in terms of average points per game (2.07 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.90
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.27
Babrungas
2.13
Tauras
1.87
Atmosfera
1.73
Žalgiris II
1.67
BFA
1.57
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.43
Ekranas
1.23
Be1 NFA
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.17
Nevėžis
1.07
Sveikata
1.00
Panevėžys II
1.00
Minija
0.90
Jonava
0.87
Tauras is 0.70 goals better than Be1 NFA in terms of goals scored per game (1.87 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.73
Tauras
0.73
Jonava
0.83
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.90
Atmosfera
1.13
BFA
1.20
Babrungas
1.43
Minija
1.53
Žalgiris II
1.60
Be1 NFA
1.70
Hegelmann II
1.70
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.90
Ekranas
1.93
Nevėžis
1.93
FA Šiauliai II
2.28
Panevėžys II
2.70
Sveikata
3.50
Tauras is 0.97 goals better than Be1 NFA in terms of goals conceded per game (0.73 vs 1.70).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TaurasTauras

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D10W00D00D40W00D00D00D30WA·KAU13/10H·NEV19/10A·FA 25/10H·BE102/11A·BFA08/11H·PAN08/03A·FA 16/03H·MIN29/03A·ŽAL04/04H·TRA19/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.301.060.290.690.31
vs Stronger (9)0.780.560.830.500.670.67
vs Similar (9)1.000.221.000.201.000.25
vs Weaker (12)0.920.171.330.170.500.17
Clean sheet %70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D00D10W00D00D03L00D02L02LA·BAB30/10A·TAU02/11H·FK 08/11H·SUD17/11A·SUD23/11H·ŽAL08/03A·TRA15/03H·JON28/03H·BAB04/04A·NEP18/04← A Lyga1 Lyga →
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.500.890.280.330.83
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.500.600.800.400.200.80
vs Weaker (20)0.750.450.920.230.430.86
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tauras over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TaurasTauras

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W03L01L10W20W00D30W20W01LA·KAU13/10H·NEV19/10A·FA 25/10H·BE102/11A·BFA08/11H·PAN08/03A·FA 16/03H·MIN29/03A·ŽAL04/04H·TRA19/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.731.410.590.920.92
vs Stronger (9)0.221.000.171.000.331.00
vs Similar (9)1.330.671.400.601.250.75
vs Weaker (12)1.830.582.670.171.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D10W10W11D01L11D01L00D10W01LA·BAB30/10A·TAU02/11H·FK 08/11H·SUD17/11A·SUD23/11H·ŽAL08/03A·TRA15/03H·JON28/03H·BAB04/04A·NEP18/04← A Lyga1 Lyga →
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.571.220.390.420.83
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.700.701.000.400.401.00
vs Weaker (20)1.000.501.310.380.430.71
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tauras over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
TAU wins
0
Draws
2
BN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tauras vs Be1 NFA · H/A from TAU
DateH/AGameScore
02/11/24HTAU Vs Be1 NFA0-1
14/06/24ABe1 NFA Vs TAU2-1

TaurasTauras

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/04/25HTAU Vs TransINVEST Vilnius3-1
11/04/25ASendvaris Vs TAU0-13
04/04/25AŽalgiris II Vs TAU0-2
29/03/25HTAU Vs Minija3-0
16/03/25AFA Šiauliai II Vs TAU0-0
08/03/25HTAU Vs Panevėžys II6-0
08/11/24ABFA Vs TAU0-1
02/11/24HTAU Vs Be1 NFA0-1
25/10/24AFA Šiauliai II Vs TAU3-1
19/10/24HTAU Vs Nevėžis2-1

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/25ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs BN3-0
13/04/25AEuforija Vs BN0-3
04/04/25HBN Vs Babrungas1-2
28/03/25HBN Vs Jonava0-0
15/03/25ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs BN4-0
08/03/25HBN Vs Žalgiris II1-1
23/11/24ASuduva Marijampole Vs BN1-0
17/11/24HBN Vs Suduva Marijampole2-1
08/11/24HBN Vs FK Trakai1-0
02/11/24ATauras Vs BN0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tauras
Tauras
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW1.74
HomeWLWWW2.00
AwayLWDWW1.47
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%63%37%
AVG goals3.323.263.37
Over 1.5 %76%79%74%
Over 2.5 %61%63%58%
Over 3.5 %42%42%42%
Scored2.372.422.32
Conceded0.950.841.05
BTTS39%37%42%
Clean Sheet45%42%47%
Corners---
Cards---
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWL1.84
HomeWWDDL2.28
AwayWLLWL1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%68%40%
AVG goals2.522.682.36
Over 1.5 %74%84%64%
Over 2.5 %44%48%40%
Over 3.5 %26%28%24%
Scored1.602.001.20
Conceded0.920.681.16
BTTS46%56%36%
Clean Sheet38%40%36%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius3079
87%
2.6
8722+65
3.6
90%
77%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.90.7
-
2Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda3067
70%
2.2
6827+41
3.2
80%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.9
-
3TaurasTauras3062
60%
2.1
5622+34
2.6
73%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.7
-
4BabrungasBabrungas3058
57%
1.9
6443+21
3.6
83%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.4
-
5BFABFA3055
53%
1.8
4736+11
2.8
70%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
6AtmosferaAtmosfera3048
47%
1.6
5234+18
2.9
70%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.1
-
7Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II3042
37%
1.4
5048+2
3.3
83%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.6
-
8JonavaJonava3042
37%
1.4
2625+1
1.7
57%
23%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.90.8
-
9MinijaMinija3036
37%
1.2
2746-19
2.4
67%
47%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
10Hegelmann IIHegelmann II3031
27%
1.0
3551-16
2.9
80%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA3030
27%
1.0
3551-16
2.9
80%
63%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3230
28%
0.9
4873-25
3.8
91%
78%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.3
-
13EkranasEkranas3029
30%
1.0
3758-21
3.2
83%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
14Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3027
27%
0.9
4357-14
3.3
83%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.9
-
15NevėžisNevėžis3026
23%
0.9
3258-26
3.0
73%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
16Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3021
20%
0.7
3081-51
3.7
90%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
17SveikataSveikata21
0%
0.5
27-5
4.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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