This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann Litauen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.07
1.86
1.14
1.12
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.48
1.29
2.00
1.40
1.00
1.18
vs Weaker (9)
1.44
0.56
1.50
0.50
1.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 5.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (49%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
98.1%
Under 1.5
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
93.0%
Under 2.5
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
83.3%
Under 3.5
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.7%
No
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-5
8.5%
0-4
8.4%
0-6
7.2%
1-5
6.8%
1-4 ✓
6.7%
0-3
6.7%
1-6
5.7%
1-3
5.3%
Tauras goals ↓
Hegelmann Litauen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0.4%
1.4%
4.0%
6.7%
8.4%
1
0.1%
1.4%
3.2%
5.3%
6.7%
2
0.1%
0.5%
1.3%
2.1%
2.7%
3
0.0%
0.1%
0.3%
0.6%
0.7%
4
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tauras goals (down), columns = Hegelmann Litauen goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Panevėžys
3.00
Džiugas Telšiai
2.50
Suduva Marijampole
2.25
Babrungas
2.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
Šiauliai
2.00
Alternatyvus FK
2.00
Klaipėdos FM
2.00
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Tauras
2.00
Minija
2.00
Jonava
1.75
Vilnius FA
1.50
Cementininkas Akmenė
1.50
Utenis Utena
1.50
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.50
VGTU Vilkai
1.50
Banga
1.50
Sirijus Klaipėda
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.50
Garliava
1.50
Atmosfera
1.50
Be1 NFA
1.50
Ekranas
1.50
Sveikata
1.50
Nevėžis
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris
1.33
Futboliukas Vilnius
1.00
OG Kaišiadorys
1.00
FK Sumskas
1.00
FK Ketera
1.00
Radviliškis
1.00
Svyturys
1.00
Vilniaus Vytis
1.00
FK Inter Nemencine
1.00
Nadruvis
1.00
Granitas
1.00
FK Jurbarko Imsre
1.00
Kaunas City FA
1.00
Sendvaris
0.00
Viltis Vilnius
0.00
Šilutė
0.00
Širvėna Biržai
0.00
Pempininkai Gargždai
0.00
FKS Ukmergė
0.00
Tera
0.00
Venta
0.00
Trivartis Vilnius
0.00
Geležinis Vilkas
0.00
Ataka Vilnius
0.00
Nemunas
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
BFA
0.00
Dainava
0.00
FK Trakai
0.00
Tauras and Hegelmann Litauen are level in average points per game (both 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ekranas
9.00
Tauras
6.33
Panevėžys
4.60
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
4.00
Atmosfera
4.00
Cementininkas Akmenė
3.00
VGTU Vilkai
3.00
Sirijus Klaipėda
3.00
Babrungas
3.00
Klaipėdos FM
2.50
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.50
Sveikata
2.50
Alternatyvus FK
2.33
Suduva Marijampole
2.25
Hegelmann Litauen
2.20
Utenis Utena
2.00
Pempininkai Gargždai
2.00
Nevėžis
2.00
Minija
2.00
Jonava
2.00
Džiugas Telšiai
1.75
Futboliukas Vilnius
1.65
OG Kaišiadorys
1.65
FK Sumskas
1.65
FK Ketera
1.65
Radviliškis
1.65
Svyturys
1.65
Vilniaus Vytis
1.65
FK Inter Nemencine
1.65
Nadruvis
1.65
Granitas
1.65
FK Jurbarko Imsre
1.65
Kaunas City FA
1.65
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.50
Be1 NFA
1.50
Šiauliai
1.33
Viltis Vilnius
1.00
Širvėna Biržai
1.00
Kauno Žalgiris
1.00
Venta
1.00
Geležinis Vilkas
1.00
Banga
1.00
BFA
1.00
FK Trakai
1.00
Vilnius FA
0.50
Garliava
0.50
Sendvaris
0.00
Šilutė
0.00
FKS Ukmergė
0.00
Tera
0.00
Trivartis Vilnius
0.00
Ataka Vilnius
0.00
Nemunas
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
Dainava
0.00
Tauras is 4.13 goals better than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals scored per game (6.33 vs 2.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Panevėžys
0.20
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.50
Banga
0.50
Babrungas
0.50
Be1 NFA
0.50
Hegelmann Litauen
0.60
Minija
0.67
Suduva Marijampole
0.75
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.00
Šilutė
1.00
Džiugas Telšiai
1.00
Nemunas
1.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
Atmosfera
1.00
Ekranas
1.00
Šiauliai
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris
1.33
Tauras
1.33
Cementininkas Akmenė
1.50
Klaipėdos FM
1.50
Garliava
1.50
Sveikata
1.50
Jonava
1.75
Vilnius FA
2.00
Utenos Utena
2.00
FK Trakai
2.00
Nevėžis
2.00
Sirijus Klaipėda
2.50
Alternatyvus FK
2.67
Viltis Vilnius
3.00
Širvėna Biržai
3.00
Utenis Utena
3.00
Ataka Vilnius
3.00
BFA
3.00
Futboliukas Vilnius
3.02
OG Kaišiadorys
3.02
FK Sumskas
3.02
FK Ketera
3.02
Radviliškis
3.02
Svyturys
3.02
Vilniaus Vytis
3.02
FK Inter Nemencine
3.02
Nadruvis
3.02
Granitas
3.02
FK Jurbarko Imsre
3.02
Kaunas City FA
3.02
VGTU Vilkai
3.50
Pempininkai Gargždai
4.00
FKS Ukmergė
4.00
Geležinis Vilkas
5.00
Venta
6.00
Saned Joniškis
6.00
Dainava
6.00
Tera
8.00
Sendvaris
13.00
Trivartis Vilnius
13.00
Tauras is 0.73 goals worse than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 0.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tauras or Draw✗ Miss
5.0%
Avg Implied -
1%
4%
95%
covers Tauras + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tauras or Hegelmann Litauen✓ Hit
96.4%
Avg Implied -
1%
4%
95%
covers Tauras + Hegelmann Litauen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hegelmann Litauen✓ Hit
98.6%
Avg Implied -
1%
4%
95%
covers Draw + Hegelmann Litauen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tauras over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
55.0%
Under
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
99.4%
Under
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
96.1%
Under
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
87.8%
Under
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
73.9%
Under
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tauras, so a minus line means Tauras give that many goals of a start and Hegelmann Litauen receive them. At -1, Tauras must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tauras win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tauras)Actual: Hegelmann Litauen
Tauras -2
0.1%
Draw -2
0.3%
Hegelmann Litauen +2
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tauras)Actual: Hegelmann Litauen
Tauras -1
0.4%
Draw -1
1.0%
Hegelmann Litauen +1
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tauras)Actual: Hegelmann Litauen
Tauras +1
5.0%
Draw +1
7.2%
Hegelmann Litauen -1
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tauras)Actual: Hegelmann Litauen
Tauras +2
12.1%
Draw +2
12.1%
Hegelmann Litauen -2
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tauras
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.60
0.53
0.80
0.33
vs Stronger (9)
1.22
0.22
0.80
0.40
1.75
0.00
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.67
0.33
1.33
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (12)
0.50
0.42
0.57
0.29
0.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann Litauen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.37
0.79
0.36
0.56
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.48
0.90
0.50
0.55
0.45
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
0.11
0.50
0.00
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tauras over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tauras
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.43
0.87
0.47
1.27
0.40
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
0.56
0.60
0.60
1.25
0.50
vs Similar (9)
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.50
0.33
vs Weaker (12)
1.00
0.42
1.00
0.43
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann Litauen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
1.07
0.79
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.81
1.10
0.90
0.45
0.73
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
0.44
1.00
0.50
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tauras over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away +2 handicap
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 1.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away win
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away -1 handicap
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 2.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away -2 handicap
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 3.5 goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
MIN (3)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Tauras's squad is €5m less valuable than Hegelmann Litauen's (€0m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Tauras's attack is €2m less valuable than Hegelmann Litauen's (€0m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
Tauras's midfield is €2m less valuable than Hegelmann Litauen's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Tauras's defence is €2m less valuable than Hegelmann Litauen's (€0m vs €2m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →