Telstar’s recent run of two losses followed by three wins shows a team ready to rebound, while Cambuur’s four defeats and a single win suggest a fragile form. The model favours a home win, with a 50% chance, a draw at 23%, and an away win at 26%. The expected total goals is 3.5, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 10.1% probability. Telstar averages 2.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded at home against similar opponents; Cambuur, when away, averages 1.85 scored and 1.62 conceded. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98% with a 6% edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.7%, Under 7.5 at 96.8% with a 1% edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 93.1% with a 5% edge, Under 6.5 at 92.4%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 91.9% with a 2% edge, and Home +2 handicap at 91%. Each selection carries its own probability, and no other outcome shares the model’s pick.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Telstar win
51.1%
Avg Implied 57.9% · @ 1.62
Edge
-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Dafabet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.63
BetVictor
1.62
Draw
23.3%
Avg Implied 21.9% · @ 4.28
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.50
Pinnacle
4.48
Betano
4.40
1xBet
4.37
Betfair
4.33
Cambuur win
25.6%
Avg Implied 20.2% · @ 4.64
Edge
+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.90
1xBet
4.78
Betfair
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Dafabet
4.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Telstar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.57
1.64
1.57
1.56
1.56
vs Stronger (14)
1.14
1.79
1.25
1.88
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (16)
2.00
1.38
2.17
1.17
1.90
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambuur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cambuur
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.67
1.81
1.62
1.86
1.71
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
4.50
1.50
4.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.86
1.46
1.86
1.21
1.86
1.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Telstar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.5%
@ 1.12+3.2%
Under 1.5
13.5%
@ 5.62-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Under
Bet365
6.00
Pinnacle
5.82
BetVictor
5.75
1xBet
5.55
Marathonbet
5.55
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.5%
@ 1.45+1.8%
Under 2.5
33.5%
@ 2.65-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.52
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.80
BetVictor
2.75
Betano
2.70
Betfair
2.70
Bet365
2.70
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.7%
@ 2.15+0.8%
Under 3.5
55.3%
@ 1.69-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.30
Betano
2.20
10Bet
2.20
1xBet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
BetVictor
1.67
Both teams to score
Yes
66.3%
@ 1.49+4.1%
No
33.7%
@ 2.45-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.55
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.47
No
BetVictor
2.55
William Hil
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.46
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%@ 8.20+4.6%
2-1
9.3%@ 7.66+3.4%
2-0
6.7%@ 9.61+1.9%
2-2
6.5%@ 11.80+2.7%
1-2
6.5%@ 13.64+3.1%
3-1
6.3%@ 10.54+2.0%
1-0
5.7%@ 9.79+1.0%
3-0
4.5%@ 13.02+1.0%
Telstar goals ↓
Cambuur goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
3.6%
3.2%
1.5%
0.5%
1
5.7%
10%
6.5%
3.0%
1.1%
2
6.7%
9.3%
6.5%
3.1%
1.1%
3
4.5%
6.3%
4.4%
2.1%
0.7%
4
2.3%
3.2%
2.2%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Telstar goals (down), columns = Cambuur goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
Telstar is 0.05 points better than Cambuur in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
Telstar is 0.24 goals better than Cambuur in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
Telstar is 0.48 goals better than Cambuur in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 2.10).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Telstar
For 3.8 · Against 8.1 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 10.9 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cambuur
For 4.8 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 14.4 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Telstar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.4
10.7
3.0
2.8
3.3
22.4
22.4
22.4
vs Stronger (17)
10.6
9.6
11.4
3.1
2.5
3.6
19.4
18.5
20.1
vs Similar (33)
10.6
10.8
10.3
3.0
2.9
3.1
24.0
24.4
23.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
54%
60%
34%
17%
50%
51%
58%
44%
% under line
43%
46%
40%
66%
83%
50%
49%
42%
56%
This opponent (Cambuur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cambuur
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.3
9.8
3.8
3.7
3.9
26.4
26.1
26.8
vs Stronger (2)
8.5
8.5
-
1.5
1.5
-
23.0
23.0
-
vs Similar (48)
10.1
10.5
9.8
3.9
3.8
3.9
26.6
26.3
26.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
65%
62%
48%
38%
58%
76%
73%
79%
% under line
36%
35%
38%
52%
62%
42%
24%
27%
21%
This opponent (Telstar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.3
PSV Eindhoven
11.3
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Willem II
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.7
Telstar
10.6
ADO Den Haag
10.6
AZ Alkmaar
10.4
Heerenveen
10.2
Feyenoord
10.1
Groningen
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Twente
10.0
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Utrecht
9.8
Ajax
9.7
Excelsior
9.4
PEC Zwolle
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cambuur
3.9
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
Twente
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Feyenoord
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
AZ Alkmaar
3.7
Ajax
3.6
ADO Den Haag
3.6
Groningen
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
Telstar
3.3
GO Ahead Eagles
3.3
Willem II
3.1
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.5
Cambuur
26.4
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.4
Utrecht
23.2
Feyenoord
22.8
AZ Alkmaar
22.6
PEC Zwolle
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Willem II
22.3
Ajax
21.8
Excelsior
21.7
Groningen
20.7
Twente
20.6
Sparta Rotterdam
20.6
Heerenveen
20.0
GO Ahead Eagles
18.9
PSV Eindhoven
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
60.2%
@ 1.49-2.4%
Under 9.5
39.8%
@ 2.48+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.60
Betfair
1.45
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Under
Betano
2.65
1xBet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Unibet
2.17
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
40.6%
@ 2.25-1.0%
Under 3.5
59.4%
@ 1.60+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.25
Under
Betano
1.60
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
56.4%
Under 21.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Telstar or Draw
79.2%
Avg Implied 79.8% · @ 1.18
Edge
-0.6%
51%
23%
26%
covers Telstar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Telstar or Cambuur
78.7%
Avg Implied 78.3% · @ 1.20
Edge
+0.4%
51%
23%
26%
covers Telstar + Cambuur
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Draw or Cambuur
42.1%
Avg Implied 41.9% · @ 2.24
Edge
+0.2%
51%
23%
26%
covers Draw + Cambuur
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.30
Betano
2.30
Unibet
2.28
1xBet
2.26
10Bet
2.25
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Telstar over/under 0.5
Over
89.8%
@ 1.07+3.3%
Under
10.2%
@ 6.92-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Under
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Telstar over/under 1.5
Over
66.6%
@ 1.47+3.2%
Under
33.4%
@ 2.55-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Under
Pinnacle
2.64
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.55
BetVictor
2.55
Telstar over/under 2.5
Over
40.1%
@ 2.52+3.0%
Under
59.9%
@ 1.48-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.55
Unibet
2.55
Bet365
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
Marathonbet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Telstar over/under 3.5
Over
19.8%
@ 4.91+0.9%
Under
80.2%
@ 1.14-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.95
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Cambuur over/under 0.5
Over
73.8%
@ 1.34+4.6%
Under
26.2%
@ 3.01-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Unibet
1.38
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.27
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.04
BetVictor
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Cambuur over/under 1.5
Over
38.7%
@ 2.68+4.0%
Under
61.3%
@ 1.43-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.88
Betfair
2.75
10Bet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.68
1xBet
2.68
Under
Pinnacle
1.50
BetVictor
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Cambuur over/under 2.5
Over
15.2%
@ 6.62+1.2%
Under
84.8%
@ 1.08-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.80
1xBet
6.80
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
Cambuur over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
@ 14.88-1.7%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.02+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Telstar, so a minus line means Telstar give that many goals of a start and Cambuur receive them. At -1, Telstar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Telstar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Telstar)
Telstar -2
19.7%
@ 4.59+0.1%
Draw -2
17.4%
@ 4.69-1.7%
Cambuur +2
62.9%
@ 1.47+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Draw
Marathonbet
5.05
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Away
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Handicap -1 (Telstar)
Telstar -1
37.1%
@ 2.47+0.9%
Draw -1
20.8%
@ 3.75-3.1%
Cambuur +1
42.1%
@ 2.24+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Marathonbet
2.47
10Bet
2.45
Unibet
2.43
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
10Bet
3.70
Unibet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Away
Unibet
2.28
10Bet
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Marathonbet
2.22
Bet365
2.20
Handicap +1 (Telstar)
Telstar +1
79.2%
@ 1.17+3.0%
Draw +1
11.8%
@ 6.24-2.4%
Cambuur -1
9.0%
@ 9.29-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
4.45
Away
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
9.50
10Bet
9.00
Marathonbet
5.95
Handicap +2 (Telstar)
Telstar +2
91.0%
@ 1.04+1.0%
Draw +2
6.0%
@ 14.50-0.5%
Cambuur -2
3.0%
@ 27.00-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Away
Betfair
31.00
Bet365
23.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Telstar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.43
0.57
0.56
0.44
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
0.57
0.38
0.62
0.67
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.44
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambuur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cambuur
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.44
1.00
0.93
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.75
0.50
0.71
0.93
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Telstar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.9%
@ 1.22-1.9%
Under 0.5
26.1%
@ 3.83+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
William Hil
3.90
Marathonbet
3.85
1xBet
3.85
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.5%
@ 2.11-5.7%
Under 1.5
61.5%
@ 1.67+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.22
Unibet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.12
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Bet365
1.67
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.1%
@ 4.59-4.1%
Under 2.5
83.9%
@ 1.16+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.90
Betfair
4.80
William Hil
4.60
Betano
4.60
1xBet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.15
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Telstar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.4%
@ 1.52-4.7%
Under
43.6%
@ 2.40+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.54
1xBet
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.53
10Bet
2.45
1xBet
2.38
Unibet
2.33
Betano
2.32
Telstar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
21.7%
@ 3.48-4.9%
Under
78.3%
@ 1.26+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.56
Betano
3.55
Unibet
3.55
1xBet
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Under
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Telstar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
8.1%
@ 9.25-1.9%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.03+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
10.00
1xBet
9.50
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Cambuur over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.2%
@ 2.25-5.3%
Under
63.8%
@ 1.59+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.38
Pinnacle
2.30
Betano
2.27
10Bet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
Under
1xBet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
Cambuur over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.3%
@ 7.35-4.3%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.05+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.10
Unibet
7.50
1xBet
7.00
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Cambuur over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Telstar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.07
1.21
1.00
1.00
1.12
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.21
0.88
1.25
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (16)
1.50
0.94
1.67
0.67
1.40
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambuur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cambuur
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.77
1.38
0.62
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.14
0.71
1.36
0.50
0.93
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Telstar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
84.4%
@ 1.12+1.6%
Under 0.5
15.6%
@ 5.41-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Under
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.60
Betano
5.40
Unibet
5.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.9%
@ 1.67-1.7%
Under 1.5
46.1%
@ 2.10+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.70
Unibet
1.68
10Bet
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Under
Betano
2.18
1xBet
2.13
Marathonbet
2.13
Bet365
2.10
William Hil
2.05
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.8%
@ 3.05-4.6%
Under 2.5
74.2%
@ 1.33+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.20
Unibet
3.15
10Bet
3.10
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Under
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Telstar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
69.2%
@ 1.34-0.0%
Under
30.8%
@ 3.02+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Under
Betano
3.05
1xBet
3.00
Telstar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
37.0%
@ 2.61+1.6%
Under
63.0%
@ 1.43-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.64
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.55
Under
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Telstar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
9.3%
@ 5.85-6.5%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.10+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.20
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Cambuur over/under 0.5 2H
Over
39.8%
@ 1.85-10.4%
Under
60.2%
@ 1.86+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.82
Under
1xBet
1.88
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.83
Cambuur over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.8%
@ 5.33-7.6%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.12+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.70
10Bet
5.50
1xBet
5.10
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Cambuur over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.5%
@ 10.75-7.2%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.03+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.5%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+7.2%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+1.1%
Away under 3.5 goals
95.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+1.7%
Under 6.5
92.4%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Unibet
1.01
-
+0.0%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
91.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+1.9%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.7%
1.05
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
-
+4.3%
Home +2 handicap
91.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-
+1.0%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.7%
1.10
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.07
-
-
+6.5%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.2%
1.12
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
-
+7.6%
Home over 0.5 goals
89.8%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
+3.3%
Under 5.5 cards
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.5%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
+3.2%
Away under 2.5 goals
84.8%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
-1.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.4%
1.12
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
+1.6%
Under 5.5
84.0%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Pinnacle
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.07
-1.9%
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.9%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.15
+4.1%
Home under 3.5 goals
80.2%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
-0.9%
Home or Draw
79.2%
1.18
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
10Bet
1.18
-0.6%
Home +1 handicap
79.2%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
+3.0%
Home or Away
78.7%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Betano
1.21
+0.4%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
78.3%
1.26
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+4.9%
Under 4.5 cards
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.2%
1.33
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
+4.6%
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.9%
1.22
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
10Bet
1.22
-1.9%
Away over 0.5 goals
73.8%
1.34
Betano
1.38
Unibet
1.38
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
+4.6%
Over 19.5 fouls
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
71.9%
1.28
Unibet
1.36
Betano
1.26
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-0.8%
Under 4.5
70.1%
1.26
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
-3.9%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Telstar
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rui Mendes33%
Abdelnour Soualhia33%
Patrick Brouwer33%
Jeff Hardeveld0%
Ronald Koeman Jr0%
Marvin Peersman0%
Tyrone Owusu0%
Gabi Caschili0%
Prince Aning0%
Nils Rossen0%
Emirhan Demircan0%
Jelani Seedorf0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ronald Koeman Jr33%
Abdelnour Soualhia33%
Jeff Hardeveld0%
Marvin Peersman0%
Tyrone Owusu0%
Rui Mendes0%
Gabi Caschili0%
Patrick Brouwer0%
Prince Aning0%
Nils Rossen0%
Emirhan Demircan0%
Jelani Seedorf0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Abdelnour Soualhia33%
Patrick Brouwer33%
Jeff Hardeveld0%
Ronald Koeman Jr0%
Marvin Peersman0%
Tyrone Owusu0%
Rui Mendes0%
Gabi Caschili0%
Prince Aning0%
Nils Rossen0%
Emirhan Demircan0%
Jelani Seedorf0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rui Mendes33%
Jeff Hardeveld0%
Ronald Koeman Jr0%
Marvin Peersman0%
Tyrone Owusu0%
Abdelnour Soualhia0%
Gabi Caschili0%
Patrick Brouwer0%
Prince Aning0%
Nils Rossen0%
Emirhan Demircan0%
Jelani Seedorf0%
Cambuur
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rafik El Arguioui50%
Ilyes Hamache25%
Nicky Souren0%
Nicolas Binder0%
Jamal Amofa0%
Thijs Jansen0%
Skye Vink0%
Ismaël Baouf0%
Morgan Costarelli0%
Iwan Henstra0%
Sami Bouhoudane0%
Lucas Jetten0%
Fabian Kvam0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicky Souren50%
Lucas Jetten25%
Nicolas Binder0%
Jamal Amofa0%
Thijs Jansen0%
Ilyes Hamache0%
Rafik El Arguioui0%
Skye Vink0%
Ismaël Baouf0%
Morgan Costarelli0%
Iwan Henstra0%
Sami Bouhoudane0%
Fabian Kvam0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nicolas Binder33%
Nicky Souren25%
Jamal Amofa0%
Thijs Jansen0%
Ilyes Hamache0%
Rafik El Arguioui0%
Skye Vink0%
Ismaël Baouf0%
Morgan Costarelli0%
Iwan Henstra0%
Sami Bouhoudane0%
Lucas Jetten0%
Fabian Kvam0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rafik El Arguioui75%
Sami Bouhoudane25%
Nicky Souren0%
Nicolas Binder0%
Jamal Amofa0%
Thijs Jansen0%
Ilyes Hamache0%
Skye Vink0%
Ismaël Baouf0%
Morgan Costarelli0%
Iwan Henstra0%
Lucas Jetten0%
Fabian Kvam0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
Telstar's squad is €4m less valuable than Cambuur's (€8m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
Telstar and Cambuur have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
Telstar and Cambuur have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
Telstar's defence is €4m less valuable than Cambuur's (€3m vs €8m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Excelsior
Groningen
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht