This opponent (Castellón) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Castellón
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.27
1.19
0.94
0.64
1.64
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.00
1.25
1.40
0.70
0.60
1.80
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
1.25
1.00
1.40
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Tenerife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
61.8%
Under 1.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
33.6%
@ 2.59-2.8%
Under 2.5
66.4%
@ 1.48+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.1%
Under 3.5
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
35.8%
No
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
17.5%
0-0
14.0%
2-0
13.4%
1-1 ✓
12.4%
2-1
8.1%
0-1
6.7%
3-0
6.5%
3-1
3.9%
Tenerife goals ↓
Castellón goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
6.7%
2.4%
0.5%
0.1%
1
18%
12%
3.4%
0.7%
0.1%
2
13%
8.1%
2.5%
0.5%
0.1%
3
6.5%
3.9%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
4
2.3%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tenerife goals (down), columns = Castellón goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Espanyol
1.95
Mallorca
1.95
Leganes
1.74
Almeria
1.74
Girona
1.69
Rayo Vallecano
1.60
Sporting Gijon
1.55
Ponferradina
1.36
Las Palmas
1.33
Fuenlabrada
1.29
Mirandes
1.29
Malaga
1.26
Tenerife
1.24
Oviedo
1.24
Alcorcon
1.17
FC Cartagena
1.17
Zaragoza
1.14
Lugo
1.12
Sabadell
1.10
Logrones
1.05
Castellón
0.98
Albacete
0.90
Tenerife is 0.26 points better than Castellón in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 0.98).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Espanyol
1.69
Almeria
1.45
Mallorca
1.29
Rayo Vallecano
1.24
Leganes
1.21
Girona
1.12
Las Palmas
1.10
Fuenlabrada
1.07
Ponferradina
1.07
Oviedo
1.07
FC Cartagena
1.05
Sabadell
0.95
Lugo
0.90
Mirandes
0.90
Sporting Gijon
0.88
Malaga
0.88
Tenerife
0.86
Castellón
0.83
Zaragoza
0.81
Alcorcon
0.76
Albacete
0.71
Logrones
0.67
Tenerife is 0.02 goals better than Castellón in terms of goals scored per game (0.86 vs 0.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sporting Gijon
0.67
Espanyol
0.67
Mallorca
0.67
Leganes
0.76
Tenerife
0.86
Girona
0.86
Alcorcon
0.93
Rayo Vallecano
0.95
Almeria
0.95
Mirandes
0.98
Zaragoza
1.02
Fuenlabrada
1.10
Oviedo
1.10
Malaga
1.12
Sabadell
1.14
Ponferradina
1.19
FC Cartagena
1.24
Logrones
1.26
Las Palmas
1.26
Lugo
1.26
Albacete
1.26
Castellón
1.29
Tenerife is 0.43 goals better than Castellón in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Tenerife
For 5.2 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 15.1 · Total 30.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Castellón
For 2.8 · Against 4.7 · Total 7.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 3.2 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 13.9 · Total 28.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Tenerife
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.2
8.7
5.4
5.2
5.6
30.6
30.1
31.2
vs Stronger (9)
9.4
9.3
9.7
5.4
4.8
6.7
34.6
32.2
39.3
vs Similar (39)
8.2
7.8
8.5
5.4
5.2
5.6
29.7
29.2
30.1
vs Weaker (2)
9.5
9.0
10.0
5.0
6.0
4.0
31.5
33.0
30.0
% over line
32%
36%
28%
74%
76%
72%
96%
92%
100%
% under line
68%
64%
72%
26%
24%
28%
4%
8%
0%
This opponent (Castellón) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Castellón
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (35)
9.0
8.8
9.3
4.9
5.9
3.7
27.7
28.1
27.3
vs Stronger (2)
7.0
5.0
9.0
4.5
5.0
4.0
36.0
40.0
32.0
vs Similar (23)
9.3
9.4
9.2
4.6
6.1
3.0
27.1
27.0
27.3
vs Weaker (10)
8.8
8.0
9.6
5.5
5.8
5.2
27.3
28.2
26.4
% over line
40%
39%
41%
66%
78%
53%
89%
89%
88%
% under line
60%
61%
59%
34%
22%
47%
11%
11%
12%
This opponent (Tenerife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mallorca
9.2
Zaragoza
9.1
Almeria
9.1
Lugo
9.1
Castellón
9.0
Espanyol
9.0
Mirandes
8.8
Sabadell
8.7
Logrones
8.6
Fuenlabrada
8.5
Alcorcon
8.5
Tenerife
8.5
FC Cartagena
8.4
Girona
8.4
Rayo Vallecano
8.3
Sporting Gijon
8.3
Albacete
8.2
Ponferradina
8.1
Oviedo
8.1
Malaga
8.0
Las Palmas
7.9
Leganes
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fuenlabrada
6.2
FC Cartagena
6.1
Rayo Vallecano
5.8
Las Palmas
5.8
Oviedo
5.6
Almeria
5.6
Leganes
5.5
Albacete
5.5
Girona
5.5
Tenerife
5.4
Mallorca
5.3
Ponferradina
5.2
Lugo
5.1
Malaga
5.1
Alcorcon
5.0
Castellón
4.9
Zaragoza
4.8
Espanyol
4.8
Sabadell
4.8
Mirandes
4.8
Logrones
4.3
Sporting Gijon
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fuenlabrada
33.3
Rayo Vallecano
33.2
FC Cartagena
32.9
Girona
31.9
Las Palmas
31.9
Logrones
31.1
Leganes
30.8
Malaga
30.8
Tenerife
30.6
Albacete
30.3
Almeria
30.1
Oviedo
29.8
Alcorcon
29.6
Ponferradina
29.5
Sabadell
29.1
Mallorca
29.1
Zaragoza
28.4
Mirandes
28.3
Espanyol
27.8
Castellón
27.7
Lugo
27.6
Sporting Gijon
26.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
34.4%
Under 9.5
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
67.3%
Under 3.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
92.1%
Under 21.5
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tenerife
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.40
0.50
0.36
0.06
0.44
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.20
1.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.22
0.43
0.40
0.30
0.08
0.54
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Castellón) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Castellón
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.70
0.44
0.50
0.14
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.25
0.65
0.50
0.30
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
0.62
0.40
0.80
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Tenerife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tenerife over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tenerife over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tenerife over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Castellón over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Castellón over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Castellón over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tenerife
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.37
0.71
0.14
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.39
1.00
0.20
0.54
0.54
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Castellón) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Castellón
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.75
0.44
0.50
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.60
0.90
0.40
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (8)
0.38
0.62
0.60
0.60
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tenerife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tenerife over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tenerife over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tenerife over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Castellón over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Castellón over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Castellón over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Tenerife · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Enric Gallego67%
Jesús Álvarez33%
Dani Martín0%
Nacho Gil0%
José León0%
Juanjo Sánchez0%
Martin Pečar0%
David Rodríguez Ramos0%
Noel Lopez0%
Anes Krdzalic0%
Víctor Moreno0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jesús Álvarez67%
David Rodríguez Ramos67%
Dani Martín0%
Nacho Gil0%
Enric Gallego0%
José León0%
Juanjo Sánchez0%
Martin Pečar0%
Noel Lopez0%
Anes Krdzalic0%
Víctor Moreno0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nacho Gil67%
Anes Krdzalic33%
Dani Martín0%
Enric Gallego0%
José León0%
Jesús Álvarez0%
Juanjo Sánchez0%
Martin Pečar0%
David Rodríguez Ramos0%
Noel Lopez0%
Víctor Moreno0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Enric Gallego67%
Dani Martín0%
Nacho Gil0%
José León0%
Jesús Álvarez0%
Juanjo Sánchez0%
Martin Pečar0%
David Rodríguez Ramos0%
Noel Lopez0%
Anes Krdzalic0%
Víctor Moreno0%
Castellón · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ousmane Camara33%
Pablo Santiago33%
Jeremy Mellot0%
Alberto Jiménez0%
Raúl Sánchez0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Romain Matthys0%
Álvaro Martín0%
Antonio Gala0%
Diego Barri0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Raúl Sánchez33%
Juanjo Nieto33%
Álvaro Martín33%
Ousmane Camara33%
Diego Barri33%
Jeremy Mellot0%
Alberto Jiménez0%
Romain Matthys0%
Pablo Santiago0%
Antonio Gala0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jeremy Mellot0%
Alberto Jiménez0%
Raúl Sánchez0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Romain Matthys0%
Álvaro Martín0%
Ousmane Camara0%
Pablo Santiago0%
Antonio Gala0%
Diego Barri0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ousmane Camara67%
Jeremy Mellot0%
Alberto Jiménez0%
Raúl Sánchez0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Romain Matthys0%
Álvaro Martín0%
Pablo Santiago0%
Antonio Gala0%
Diego Barri0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ESP (24)
€119m
GIR (28)
€114m
RV (23)
€76m
ALM (26)
€54m
MAL (26)
€48m
MAL (27)
€41m
OVI (23)
€30m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
CAS (28)
€21m
ALB (27)
€18m
TEN (28)
€12m
ZAR (20)
€9m
SAB (28)
€8m
MIR (21)
€6m
Tenerife's squad is €9m less valuable than Castellón's (€12m vs €21m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (12)
€64m
ESP (9)
€39m
ALM (11)
€38m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
MAL (11)
€23m
OVI (11)
€15m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
CAS (10)
€11m
ALB (10)
€8m
TEN (13)
€5m
ZAR (8)
€4m
SAB (11)
€3m
MIR (6)
€2m
Tenerife's attack is €6m less valuable than Castellón's (€5m vs €11m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ESP (5)
€31m
GIR (7)
€28m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€9m
LEG (5)
€8m
MAL (5)
€6m
OVI (4)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
ALM (4)
€4m
ALB (7)
€4m
TEN (5)
€4m
CAS (6)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
ZAR (4)
€2m
SAB (6)
€2m
MIR (4)
€1m
Tenerife and Castellón have a similar midfield value (both €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ESP (10)
€48m
RV (9)
€36m
GIR (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
LP (10)
€13m
ALM (11)
€11m
OVI (8)
€10m
MAL (11)
€9m
SG (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
CAS (12)
€8m
ALB (10)
€5m
MIR (11)
€4m
TEN (10)
€3m
SAB (11)
€3m
ZAR (8)
€3m
Tenerife's defence is €4m less valuable than Castellón's (€3m vs €8m).
Spain: Segunda División 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →
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Espanyol
Mallorca
Almeria
Leganes
Girona
Rayo Vallecano
Sporting Gijon
Ponferradina
Las Palmas
Mirandes
Malaga
Oviedo
Alcorcon
FC Cartagena
Zaragoza
Lugo
Sabadell
Albacete