The contest between Tenerife and Sporting Gijón is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. Home victory sits at 37 %, a draw at 31 %, and an away win at 32 %. The expected total goals hover around 2.3, and the most probable total is two goals, a 28 % chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 14.6 % probability. Tenerife’s home form shows they average 1.27 goals scored and 0.82 conceded against similar opponents, while Sporting Gijón’s away record is 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.1 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9 % with a 3 % edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7 % with a 3 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5 % with a 5 % edge), Under 5.5 (97.2 % with a 3 % edge), and Home under 3.5 goals (96.8 % with a 6 % edge). Both sides have been on winning streaks recently, with Tenerife’s last five results WWLWL and Sporting Gijón unbeaten in their last five.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Sporting Gijon edged Tenerife 1-0, overturning the model’s Home win pick that carried a 38% probability. The match finished 0-1, giving the away side a win that the model had not favored. The pre-match favourite was indeed the home team, but the prediction proved wrong. All of the model’s suggested picks were settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.8%, Under 6.5 hit at 99.1%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.0%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.8%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.7%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.4%, and Under 5.5 hit at 97.2%. Tenerife’s recent form shows a shaky start with a loss, while Sporting Gijon rides a two-game winning streak. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the model’s predictions on total goals and half-time figures, but the favourite’s win was missed.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tenerife win✗ Miss
38.1%
Avg Implied 41.5% · @ 2.24
Edge
-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.35
Betano
2.30
Dafabet
2.30
Bet365
2.30
1xBet
2.30
Draw✗ Miss
31.2%
Avg Implied 29.7% · @ 3.13
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.27
Betano
3.25
Dafabet
3.20
Superbet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.18
Sporting Gijon win✓ Hit
30.7%
Avg Implied 28.8% · @ 3.23
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.41
1xBet
3.31
Dafabet
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Unibet
3.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tenerife
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.07
1.00
0.94
1.00
1.21
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.00
0.50
2.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (24)
0.96
0.92
1.07
0.71
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting Gijon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sporting Gijon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.10
1.53
0.87
1.33
1.33
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.54
1.11
1.77
0.85
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Tenerife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
67.4%
@ 1.40+0.4%
Under 1.5
32.6%
@ 2.83-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Under
Betano
2.95
10Bet
2.88
Pinnacle
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.85
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.4%
@ 2.27-2.1%
Under 2.5
60.6%
@ 1.61+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.42
Bet365
2.35
SBO
2.33
Superbet
2.32
Betano
2.25
Under
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.61
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.3%
@ 4.22-2.9%
Under 3.5
80.7%
@ 1.21+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.58
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
Superbet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Under
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.1%
@ 1.91-1.5%
No
52.9%
@ 1.80+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.97
Betfair
1.95
William Hil
1.95
BetVictor
1.93
Bet365
1.91
No
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.83
10Bet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%@ 5.59+6.8%
0-0
11.7%@ 7.50+5.9%
1-0
11.2%@ 6.01+3.9%
0-1 ✓
9.7%@ 7.58+3.9%
2-1
8.0%@ 8.40+2.8%
2-0
7.6%@ 9.22+2.8%
1-2
7.0%@ 10.63+2.9%
0-2
5.8%@ 13.86+2.7%
Tenerife goals ↓
Sporting Gijon goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.7%
5.8%
2.1%
0.5%
1
11%
15%
7.0%
2.5%
0.7%
2
7.6%
8.0%
4.2%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.0%
3.2%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tenerife goals (down), columns = Sporting Gijon goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Girona
1.96
Almeria
1.72
Burgos
1.71
Mallorca
1.70
Las Palmas
1.68
Castellón
1.66
Eibar
1.60
Oviedo
1.58
Cordoba
1.45
Sporting Gijon
1.45
AD Ceuta FC
1.45
Albacete
1.40
FC Andorra
1.38
Tenerife
1.34
Sabadell
1.16
Granada CF
1.14
Celta de Vigo II
1.14
Eldense
1.13
Real Sociedad II
1.12
Leganes
1.10
Valladolid
1.10
Cadiz
1.02
Tenerife is 0.12 points worse than Sporting Gijon in terms of average points per game (1.34 vs 1.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Girona
1.87
Almeria
1.87
Castellón
1.66
Mallorca
1.62
Oviedo
1.51
FC Andorra
1.48
Sporting Gijon
1.43
Cordoba
1.36
Albacete
1.33
Las Palmas
1.32
Tenerife
1.28
Eibar
1.24
Real Sociedad II
1.24
AD Ceuta FC
1.21
Granada CF
1.19
Burgos
1.14
Sabadell
1.10
Celta de Vigo II
1.09
Eldense
1.08
Valladolid
1.05
Leganes
1.02
Cadiz
0.98
Tenerife is 0.15 goals worse than Sporting Gijon in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Burgos
0.79
Girona
0.92
Eibar
0.95
Las Palmas
0.95
Mallorca
1.06
Oviedo
1.14
Leganes
1.21
Castellón
1.25
FC Andorra
1.29
Sporting Gijon
1.29
Albacete
1.31
Granada CF
1.33
Tenerife
1.35
Valladolid
1.36
Cordoba
1.45
Cadiz
1.45
Real Sociedad II
1.45
Almeria
1.48
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Sabadell
1.56
Celta de Vigo II
1.58
Eldense
1.59
Tenerife is 0.06 goals worse than Sporting Gijon in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
61%
Cordoba
58%
Las Palmas
56%
Castellón
55%
Almeria
52%
Leganes
51%
AD Ceuta FC
51%
Granada CF
50%
Valladolid
50%
Eibar
49%
Burgos
46%
Cadiz
46%
Sporting Gijon
46%
Real Sociedad II
44%
Albacete
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Tenerife
For 4.9 · Against 3.5 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 10.4 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sporting Gijon
For 3.2 · Against 5.8 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 11.7 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Tenerife
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.0
9.6
4.4
4.7
4.2
27.1
27.6
26.5
vs Stronger (7)
8.2
8.3
8.0
6.3
5.8
7.0
29.7
29.7
29.7
vs Similar (41)
9.5
9.1
9.8
4.3
4.5
4.2
26.7
27.3
26.1
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
42%
48%
36%
58%
56%
60%
78%
79%
77%
% under line
58%
52%
64%
42%
44%
40%
22%
21%
23%
This opponent (Sporting Gijon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sporting Gijon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.0
9.5
5.1
5.2
5.0
22.5
23.2
21.7
vs Stronger (1)
12.0
12.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
22.0
22.0
-
vs Similar (45)
9.9
10.2
9.7
5.2
5.3
5.2
22.2
23.0
21.3
vs Weaker (4)
6.7
7.0
6.0
3.5
3.5
3.5
27.7
26.0
31.0
% over line
52%
56%
48%
74%
80%
68%
58%
64%
52%
% under line
48%
44%
52%
26%
20%
32%
42%
36%
48%
This opponent (Tenerife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albacete
10.9
Cordoba
10.6
Mallorca
10.2
Castellón
10.0
Sporting Gijon
9.8
Cadiz
9.6
Almeria
9.6
Leganes
9.6
Real Sociedad II
9.4
Eldense
9.4
Eibar
9.3
Oviedo
9.3
Girona
9.3
Granada CF
9.2
Tenerife
9.2
Valladolid
9.0
FC Andorra
8.9
AD Ceuta FC
8.8
Sabadell
8.8
Burgos
8.4
Las Palmas
8.3
Celta de Vigo II
7.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Celta de Vigo II
6.5
Castellón
6.0
Real Sociedad II
5.9
Cordoba
5.7
Burgos
5.6
Valladolid
5.6
Granada CF
5.5
Almeria
5.5
FC Andorra
5.5
Eibar
5.2
Leganes
5.2
Sporting Gijon
5.2
AD Ceuta FC
5.2
Cadiz
5.1
Tenerife
4.7
Sabadell
4.6
Las Palmas
4.6
Albacete
4.6
Girona
4.5
Eldense
4.5
Mallorca
4.3
Oviedo
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Celta de Vigo II
32.0
Cordoba
29.6
Real Sociedad II
28.7
Valladolid
28.3
Castellón
28.3
FC Andorra
27.8
AD Ceuta FC
27.8
Sabadell
27.6
Las Palmas
27.3
Granada CF
27.0
Tenerife
27.0
Burgos
26.5
Almeria
26.4
Leganes
26.2
Eibar
25.7
Cadiz
25.5
Girona
25.4
Oviedo
25.1
Eldense
24.4
Mallorca
24.3
Sporting Gijon
22.5
Albacete
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
48.0%
@ 1.85-2.3%
Under 9.5
52.0%
@ 1.87+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.88
Betano
1.82
Unibet
1.81
Under
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Unibet
1.86
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
73.9%
@ 1.34+6.1%
Under 3.5
26.1%
@ 2.83-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
2.95
Superbet
2.72
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
70.0%
@ 1.39+4.0%
Under 21.5
30.0%
@ 2.70-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.39
Under
1xBet
2.70
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tenerife or Draw✗ Miss
69.3%
Avg Implied 71.1% · @ 1.32
Edge
-1.8%
38%
31%
31%
covers Tenerife + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.37
William Hil
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Tenerife or Sporting Gijon✓ Hit
68.8%
Avg Implied 70.7% · @ 1.32
Edge
-1.8%
38%
31%
31%
covers Tenerife + Sporting Gijon
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
Draw or Sporting Gijon✓ Hit
61.9%
Avg Implied 58.3% · @ 1.61
Edge
+3.7%
38%
31%
31%
covers Draw + Sporting Gijon
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.67
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Superbet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tenerife over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
70.1%
@ 1.29-1.7%
Under
29.9%
@ 3.29+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.41
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Unibet
3.30
Tenerife over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.0%
@ 2.47-3.8%
Under
66.0%
@ 1.50+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.66
Betfair
2.63
BetVictor
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.50
Under
Betano
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.51
Tenerife over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.2%
@ 5.66-4.2%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.11+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
1xBet
5.80
BetVictor
5.75
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
Tenerife over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 13.92-3.4%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.02+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Sporting Gijon over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.3%
@ 1.45+1.2%
Under
34.7%
@ 2.59-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.50
Superbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Betano
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.68
Betano
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.61
Sporting Gijon over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.6%
@ 3.22-0.4%
Under
71.4%
@ 1.31+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.52
BetVictor
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.22
10Bet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Sporting Gijon over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.1%
@ 8.60-1.8%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.05+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.00
1xBet
8.90
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
8.20
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
Sporting Gijon over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 20.67-2.4%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tenerife, so a minus line means Tenerife give that many goals of a start and Sporting Gijon receive them. At -1, Tenerife must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tenerife win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tenerife)Actual: Sporting Gijon
Tenerife -2
5.7%
@ 9.96-3.3%
Draw -2
11.3%
@ 5.95-3.6%
Sporting Gijon +2
83.0%
@ 1.17+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Superbet
9.60
Unibet
9.50
10Bet
9.00
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.20
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.60
Away
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.13
Handicap -1 (Tenerife)Actual: Sporting Gijon
Tenerife -1
17.0%
@ 4.36-3.5%
Draw -1
21.1%
@ 3.73-2.8%
Sporting Gijon +1
61.9%
@ 1.60+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.35
10Bet
4.33
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.70
10Bet
3.65
Away
Unibet
1.65
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.60
Handicap +1 (Tenerife)Actual: Draw
Tenerife +1
69.3%
@ 1.31+0.8%
Draw +1
18.3%
@ 4.67-0.9%
Sporting Gijon -1
12.4%
@ 7.33+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
Unibet
4.60
Superbet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Away
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.40
Betfair
7.00
Handicap +2 (Tenerife)Actual: Tenerife
Tenerife +2
87.6%
@ 1.07+1.5%
Draw +2
8.7%
@ 9.75-0.7%
Sporting Gijon -2
3.7%
@ 21.00-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Away
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
21.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tenerife
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.40
0.50
0.38
0.36
0.43
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.60
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.38
0.50
0.29
0.30
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting Gijon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sporting Gijon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.67
0.47
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.50
0.77
0.46
0.67
0.53
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tenerife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
64.0%
@ 1.47+0.6%
Under 0.5
36.0%
@ 2.55-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.49
Superbet
1.49
Under
10Bet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
William Hil
2.62
Pinnacle
2.60
Unibet
2.55
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
26.7%
@ 3.24-2.2%
Under 1.5
73.3%
@ 1.32+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.38
Betano
3.30
Superbet
3.30
Under
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.34
William Hil
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
8.6%
@ 8.86-2.0%
Under 2.5
91.4%
@ 1.04+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
BetVictor
9.50
William Hil
9.00
Superbet
8.80
Marathonbet
8.70
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
William Hil
1.06
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tenerife over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.8%
@ 2.09+1.3%
Under
54.2%
@ 1.67-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.21
Superbet
2.12
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.08
1xBet
2.08
Under
10Bet
1.73
Unibet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
Tenerife over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.9%
@ 6.70-2.9%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.07+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.30
1xBet
7.30
Superbet
6.70
Betano
6.20
10Bet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Tenerife over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 18.67-2.9%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
10Bet
21.00
Betano
12.00
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Sporting Gijon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
34.7%
@ 2.48-2.8%
Under
65.3%
@ 1.48+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.66
Superbet
2.50
Betano
2.47
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.46
Under
10Bet
1.53
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Marathonbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Sporting Gijon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 8.95-2.8%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.03+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Superbet
8.60
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Sporting Gijon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 36.00-99.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
36.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tenerife
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.50
0.56
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.40
0.00
1.50
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.54
0.57
0.43
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting Gijon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sporting Gijon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.87
0.40
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.82
0.61
1.00
0.38
0.67
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tenerife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.0%
@ 1.30+1.0%
Under 0.5
27.0%
@ 3.33-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.27
Under
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Betano
3.40
Superbet
3.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
37.9%
@ 2.38-1.2%
Under 1.5
62.1%
@ 1.53+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.47
William Hil
2.45
Bet365
2.38
Unibet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.34
Under
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.6%
@ 5.62-2.0%
Under 2.5
85.4%
@ 1.12+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.85
1xBet
5.45
Marathonbet
5.45
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.09
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tenerife over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
52.8%
@ 1.77+0.5%
Under
47.2%
@ 1.94-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.82
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Under
Betano
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Superbet
1.88
Tenerife over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 4.92-4.3%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.14+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.05
1xBet
5.05
Superbet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.50
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Tenerife over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 13.33-4.5%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Sporting Gijon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
43.6%
@ 2.06-1.4%
Under
56.4%
@ 1.69+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.03
Marathonbet
2.03
Betano
2.02
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Sporting Gijon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.8%
@ 6.50-3.5%
Under
89.2%
@ 1.08+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.95
Marathonbet
6.95
10Bet
6.50
Superbet
6.40
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Sporting Gijon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 19.92-2.5%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.4%
1.03
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.0%
1.05
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.4%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
William Hil
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.9%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.2%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.8%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
-
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.5%
1.14
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.4%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.09
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
83.0%
1.17
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.13
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.7%
1.21
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.20
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.0%
1.31
Superbet
1.38
Betano
1.33
Unibet
1.33
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.9%
1.34
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.33
-
-
-
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
73.3%
1.32
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.34
William Hil
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.32
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
73.0%
1.30
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.27
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
71.4%
1.31
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
70.1%
1.29
Superbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-1.7%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
70.0%
1.39
1xBet
1.39
-
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Tenerife
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Enric Gallego67%
Jesús Álvarez33%
Dani Martín0%
Nacho Gil0%
José León0%
Juanjo Sánchez0%
Martin Pečar0%
David Rodríguez Ramos0%
Noel Lopez0%
Anes Krdzalic0%
Víctor Moreno0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jesús Álvarez67%
David Rodríguez Ramos67%
Dani Martín0%
Nacho Gil0%
Enric Gallego0%
José León0%
Juanjo Sánchez0%
Martin Pečar0%
Noel Lopez0%
Anes Krdzalic0%
Víctor Moreno0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nacho Gil67%
Anes Krdzalic33%
Dani Martín0%
Enric Gallego0%
José León0%
Jesús Álvarez0%
Juanjo Sánchez0%
Martin Pečar0%
David Rodríguez Ramos0%
Noel Lopez0%
Víctor Moreno0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Enric Gallego67%
Dani Martín0%
Nacho Gil0%
José León0%
Jesús Álvarez0%
Juanjo Sánchez0%
Martin Pečar0%
David Rodríguez Ramos0%
Noel Lopez0%
Anes Krdzalic0%
Víctor Moreno0%
Sporting Gijon
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Juan Otero33%
Alejo Sarco33%
Rubén Yáñez0%
Pablo Vázquez0%
Álex Corredera0%
Konrad de la Fuente0%
Nikita Iosifov0%
César Gelabert0%
Pablo García0%
Guille Rosas0%
Nacho Martín0%
Aimar Duñabeitia0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pablo Vázquez33%
Guille Rosas33%
Nacho Martín33%
Aimar Duñabeitia33%
Juan Otero0%
Rubén Yáñez0%
Álex Corredera0%
Konrad de la Fuente0%
Nikita Iosifov0%
César Gelabert0%
Pablo García0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nikita Iosifov33%
Juan Otero0%
Rubén Yáñez0%
Pablo Vázquez0%
Álex Corredera0%
Konrad de la Fuente0%
César Gelabert0%
Pablo García0%
Guille Rosas0%
Nacho Martín0%
Aimar Duñabeitia0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Juan Otero33%
Rubén Yáñez0%
Pablo Vázquez0%
Álex Corredera0%
Konrad de la Fuente0%
Nikita Iosifov0%
César Gelabert0%
Pablo García0%
Guille Rosas0%
Nacho Martín0%
Aimar Duñabeitia0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (28)
€114m
ALM (26)
€54m
MAL (26)
€48m
OVI (23)
€30m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
CAD (29)
€27m
VAL (29)
€26m
RSI (25)
€23m
CAS (28)
€21m
ALB (27)
€18m
BUR (22)
€17m
GC (18)
€17m
COR (26)
€16m
EIB (24)
€15m
FA (26)
€15m
TEN (28)
€12m
ACF (22)
€10m
SAB (28)
€8m
CDV (22)
€8m
ELD (20)
€7m
Tenerife's squad is €16m less valuable than Sporting Gijon's (€12m vs €28m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (12)
€64m
ALM (11)
€38m
MAL (11)
€23m
RSI (10)
€15m
OVI (11)
€15m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
CAD (12)
€11m
CAS (10)
€11m
VAL (11)
€10m
ALB (10)
€8m
BUR (7)
€8m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
FA (10)
€6m
ACF (10)
€5m
TEN (13)
€5m
COR (9)
€4m
CDV (9)
€4m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (8)
€3m
Tenerife's attack is €10m less valuable than Sporting Gijon's (€5m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (7)
€28m
MAL (5)
€9m
LEG (5)
€8m
VAL (6)
€6m
OVI (4)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
ALM (4)
€4m
COR (5)
€4m
ALB (7)
€4m
TEN (5)
€4m
RSI (6)
€4m
BUR (6)
€4m
CAD (5)
€3m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
CAS (6)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
FA (5)
€3m
SAB (6)
€2m
ACF (4)
€1m
ELD (3)
€1m
CDV (3)
€1m
Tenerife and Sporting Gijon have a similar midfield value (both €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
LP (10)
€13m
CAD (12)
€12m
ALM (11)
€11m
VAL (12)
€10m
OVI (8)
€10m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
CAS (12)
€8m
COR (12)
€7m
FA (11)
€7m
BUR (9)
€6m
ALB (10)
€5m
EIB (10)
€5m
RSI (9)
€4m
TEN (10)
€3m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (9)
€3m
ACF (8)
€3m
CDV (10)
€2m
Tenerife's defence is €5m less valuable than Sporting Gijon's (€3m vs €9m).
Spain: Segunda División 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Granada CF
Castellón
Leganes
Mallorca
Las Palmas
Eibar
Sabadell
Girona
Celta de Vigo II
Burgos
Real Sociedad II
Oviedo
FC Andorra
Almeria
Cadiz
Cordoba
Valladolid
Eldense
Albacete
AD Ceuta FC