Thor Akureyri are the clear favourites, with the model rating a 75 % chance of a home win, 14 % for a draw and 11 % for an away win, and picking the home win as the most likely outcome. The team’s home form shows an average of 2.36 goals scored and 1.18 conceded against similar opponents, while Fylkir’s away form averages 1.77 scored and 1.46 conceded. The model expects 4.5 goals in total, with a 30 % probability that the match will finish 6 + goals. The single most likely scoreline is 3-1 for Thor Akureyri, with a 7.9 % probability. Recent form gives Thor Akureyri a narrative edge after three straight defeats, whereas Fylkir comes off a win. Suggested picks include Home over 0.5 goals at 96.1 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.7 %, Over 1.5 at 94.5 %, Under 7.5 at 91.1 %, Home or Away at 85.8 %, Home or Draw at 88.7 %, Home +1 handicap at 88.7 % and Home +2 handicap at 95.5 %. The model’s selection probabilities reflect a strong expectation that Thor Akureyri will dominate the match.
Results analysis
The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite Thor Akureyri failed to deliver a win. The model had picked a home win with a 75 % probability, but the final score was 0-2, giving Fylkir a clear away victory. The model’s call was wrong. The suggested picks were a mixed bag: Home over 0.5 goals (96.1 %) missed, Away under 3.5 goals (95.7 %) hit, Home +2 handicap (95.5 %) missed, Over 1.5 (94.5 %) hit, Under 7.5 (91.1 %) hit, Home or Draw (88.7 %) missed, Home +1 handicap (88.7 %) missed, and Home or Away (85.8 %) hit. Thor Akureyri’s run of three straight defeats ended with a loss, while Fylkir, coming off a win, extended their recent form with a convincing away triumph.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Thor Akureyri win✗ Miss
74.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
14.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fylkir win✓ Hit
11.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Thor Akureyri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
3.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.73
1.27
2.80
1.13
2.67
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
2.38
1.29
2.36
1.18
2.38
1.38
vs Weaker (6)
4.17
1.17
4.00
1.00
4.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fylkir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.47
1.80
1.53
1.87
1.40
vs Stronger (4)
2.25
1.75
2.67
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.71
1.42
1.64
1.36
1.77
1.46
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Thor Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (30%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
94.5%
Under 1.5
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
83.1%
Under 2.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
66.4%
Under 3.5
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
70.4%
No
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-1
7.9%
2-1
7.3%
4-1
6.4%
3-0
6.1%
2-0
5.6%
3-2
5.2%
1-1
5.0%
4-0
4.9%
Thor Akureyri goals ↓
Fylkir goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.5%
0.9%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
1
3.0%
5.0%
3.0%
1.3%
0.4%
2
5.6%
7.3%
4.8%
2.1%
0.7%
3
6.1%
7.9%
5.2%
2.2%
0.7%
4
4.9%
6.4%
4.2%
1.8%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Thor Akureyri goals (down), columns = Fylkir goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
3.00
KR Reykjavik
2.50
Valur Reykjavik
2.43
Keflavik
2.40
IA Akranes
2.20
Fylkir
2.00
Breidablik
2.00
Fram Reykjavik
1.80
Thor Akureyri
1.75
IR Reykjavik
1.60
Afturelding
1.50
Stjarnan
1.40
Vestri
1.40
Grotta
1.20
Grindavik
1.20
Throttur Reykjavik
1.20
Ægir
1.10
KA Akureyri
1.00
FH hafnarfjordur
1.00
HK Kopavogur
0.80
Njardvik
0.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.80
Leiknir R.
0.40
Völsungur
0.40
Thor Akureyri is 0.25 points worse than Fylkir in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.67
Breidablik
3.20
Afturelding
3.00
Valur Reykjavik
3.00
IA Akranes
2.80
Leiknir R.
2.60
Keflavik
2.60
Stjarnan
2.40
Fram Reykjavik
2.40
Fylkir
2.29
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.00
FH hafnarfjordur
2.00
Vestri
2.00
Grindavik
1.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.80
Thor Akureyri
1.75
Grotta
1.73
Ægir
1.58
IR Reykjavik
1.40
Njardvik
1.00
KA Akureyri
1.00
HK Kopavogur
0.80
Völsungur
0.60
Thor Akureyri is 0.54 goals worse than Fylkir in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 2.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Fylkir
0.86
IR Reykjavik
1.00
Valur Reykjavik
1.00
Breidablik
1.20
KR Reykjavik
1.33
Keflavik
1.40
Fram Reykjavik
1.40
Thor Akureyri
1.75
IA Akranes
1.80
Njardvik
1.80
Vestri
1.80
Afturelding
2.00
Stjarnan
2.00
HK Kopavogur
2.20
Throttur Reykjavik
2.20
FH hafnarfjordur
2.25
Grotta
2.40
KA Akureyri
2.40
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.60
Ægir
2.63
Grindavik
3.40
Völsungur
3.40
Leiknir R.
4.00
Thor Akureyri is 0.89 goals worse than Fylkir in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Thor Akureyri or Draw✗ Miss
88.7%
Avg Implied -
75%
14%
11%
covers Thor Akureyri + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri or Fylkir✓ Hit
85.8%
Avg Implied -
75%
14%
11%
covers Thor Akureyri + Fylkir
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Fylkir✓ Hit
25.5%
Avg Implied -
75%
14%
11%
covers Draw + Fylkir
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Thor Akureyri over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
96.1%
Under
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
83.3%
Under
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
62.7%
Under
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
40.5%
Under
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.8%
Under
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
37.4%
Under
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Thor Akureyri, so a minus line means Thor Akureyri give that many goals of a start and Fylkir receive them. At -1, Thor Akureyri must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Thor Akureyri win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Thor Akureyri)Actual: Fylkir
Thor Akureyri -2
37.9%
Draw -2
19.0%
Fylkir +2
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Thor Akureyri)Actual: Fylkir
Thor Akureyri -1
56.9%
Draw -1
17.7%
Fylkir +1
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Thor Akureyri)Actual: Fylkir
Thor Akureyri +1
88.7%
Draw +1
6.8%
Fylkir -1
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Thor Akureyri)Actual: Draw
Thor Akureyri +2
95.5%
Draw +2
3.1%
Fylkir -2
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Thor Akureyri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.63
1.60
0.73
1.40
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.08
0.67
1.00
0.82
1.15
0.54
vs Weaker (6)
3.17
0.50
3.25
0.50
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fylkir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.93
0.60
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
0.75
2.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.67
0.64
0.64
0.54
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Thor Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Thor Akureyri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Thor Akureyri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.63
1.20
0.40
1.27
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.29
0.62
1.36
0.36
1.23
0.85
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.67
0.75
0.50
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fylkir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.83
0.87
0.93
1.27
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.67
1.33
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
1.12
0.75
1.00
0.73
1.23
0.77
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Thor Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Thor Akureyri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home over 0.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 6.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →