This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stjarnan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.17
2.64
1.07
1.25
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.48
1.24
2.10
0.90
0.91
1.55
vs Weaker (9)
2.89
1.00
4.00
1.50
2.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
37% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Thor Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.2%
Under 1.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.8%
Under 2.5
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.1%
Under 3.5
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
8.8%
2-0
8.4%
0-1
7.0%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
5.0%
Thor Akureyri goals ↓
Stjarnan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
7.0%
4.5%
1.6%
0.4%
1
10%
14%
6.7%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.4%
9.2%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
3
4.2%
4.6%
2.5%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.6%
1.7%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Thor Akureyri goals (down), columns = Stjarnan goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Breidablik
2.29
Valur Reykjavik
2.17
Thor Akureyri
2.17
KA Akureyri
2.00
KR Reykjavik
2.00
Grindavik
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.80
FH hafnarfjordur
1.80
IR Reykjavik
1.80
Keflavik
1.60
Fjolnir
1.60
IA Akranes
1.57
Afturelding
1.40
Throttur Reykjavik
1.40
Fylkir
1.20
Fram Reykjavik
1.00
Leiknir R.
1.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.80
HK Kopavogur
0.80
Stjarnan
0.60
Grotta
0.60
Vestri
0.40
Njardvik
0.40
Dalvík / Reynir
0.00
Thor Akureyri is 1.57 points better than Stjarnan in terms of average points per game (2.17 vs 0.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Valur Reykjavik
3.33
Afturelding
3.20
Breidablik
2.86
Thor Akureyri
2.83
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.80
KR Reykjavik
2.60
IA Akranes
2.43
Keflavik
2.40
IR Reykjavik
2.40
Leiknir R.
2.40
KA Akureyri
2.20
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.80
Grindavik
1.80
Fylkir
1.80
Fjolnir
1.80
FH hafnarfjordur
1.60
Fram Reykjavik
1.60
Throttur Reykjavik
1.40
HK Kopavogur
1.40
Grotta
1.00
Njardvik
1.00
Stjarnan
0.80
Vestri
0.60
Dalvík / Reynir
0.20
Thor Akureyri is 2.03 goals better than Stjarnan in terms of goals scored per game (2.83 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Thor Akureyri
0.67
Breidablik
0.71
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.20
KA Akureyri
1.20
Valur Reykjavik
1.33
IA Akranes
1.57
Vestri
1.60
FH hafnarfjordur
1.60
Fylkir
1.60
Fjolnir
1.60
KR Reykjavik
1.80
Fram Reykjavik
1.80
Throttur Reykjavik
1.80
Grindavik
2.00
HK Kopavogur
2.00
Keflavik
2.20
Stjarnan
2.20
Leiknir R.
2.20
Grotta
2.20
IR Reykjavik
2.80
Afturelding
2.80
Njardvik
2.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
3.40
Dalvík / Reynir
5.20
Thor Akureyri is 1.53 goals better than Stjarnan in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 2.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Thor Akureyri or Draw✓ Hit
73.6%
Avg Implied -
45%
28%
26%
covers Thor Akureyri + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri or Stjarnan✓ Hit
71.7%
Avg Implied -
45%
28%
26%
covers Thor Akureyri + Stjarnan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Stjarnan✗ Miss
54.7%
Avg Implied -
45%
28%
26%
covers Draw + Stjarnan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Thor Akureyri over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.6%
Under
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
44.1%
Under
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.4%
Under
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
29.7%
Under
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Thor Akureyri, so a minus line means Thor Akureyri give that many goals of a start and Stjarnan receive them. At -1, Thor Akureyri must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Thor Akureyri win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Thor Akureyri)Actual: Thor Akureyri
Thor Akureyri -2
9.2%
Draw -2
14.0%
Stjarnan +2
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Thor Akureyri)Actual: Thor Akureyri
Thor Akureyri -1
23.2%
Draw -1
22.1%
Stjarnan +1
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Thor Akureyri)Actual: Thor Akureyri
Thor Akureyri +1
73.6%
Draw +1
15.8%
Stjarnan -1
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Thor Akureyri)Actual: Thor Akureyri
Thor Akureyri +2
89.4%
Draw +2
7.5%
Stjarnan -2
3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Thor Akureyri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.86
0.57
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.71
0.70
0.80
0.45
0.64
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.22
1.25
0.00
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stjarnan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
1.21
0.57
0.38
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.62
1.10
0.50
0.18
0.73
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.44
1.50
0.75
0.80
0.20
Clean sheet %
60% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Thor Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Thor Akureyri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Thor Akureyri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.79
0.57
0.44
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.62
1.10
0.70
0.60
0.55
1.55
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
0.56
1.00
0.50
0.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
30% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stjarnan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.60
1.43
0.50
0.88
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.62
1.00
0.40
0.73
0.82
vs Weaker (9)
1.78
0.56
2.50
0.75
1.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Thor Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Thor Akureyri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
TA (21)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
VES (19)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
TR (19)
€1m
NJA (21)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
GRO (17)
€1m
IR (17)
€1m
Thor Akureyri's squad is €1m less valuable than Stjarnan's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
TA (7)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
AFT (5)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
VES (7)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
TR (5)
€0m
NJA (7)
€0m
GRO (5)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
IR (6)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
Thor Akureyri and Stjarnan have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
TR (6)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
NJA (5)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
IR (4)
€0m
GRO (3)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
Thor Akureyri and Stjarnan have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
NJA (9)
€0m
LR (9)
€0m
AFT (7)
€0m
FYL (6)
€0m
TR (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
GRO (9)
€0m
IR (7)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
Thor Akureyri and Stjarnan have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Iceland: 1. Deild 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →